Call Map and discussion....
>> Sunday, January 09, 2011
The winter weather event is underway for the Lower Mississippi Valley into MS and parts of AL. Not a whole lot of changes to the ideas down that way.....going to be a very significant winter storm. Areas from Birmingham south to Montgomery, and in MS, roughly between Hwy 82 down through and south of the I-20 corridor, icing is a big concern with significant freezing rain accumulations possible.
North of the freezing rain area, north MS, north AL, and much of Tennessee are in for a good snow event. Widespread 3-7" totals looks likely, and some areas in the Tennessee Valley could sail past the 8" mark. Same general idea for north Georgia, although the closer you get to Atlanta, the more tricky is gets.
For the Carolinas, the model precip output has been on a general upward trend today for many areas, especially the short-range mesoscale models. The last couple of NAM runs have printed out over 1" of liquid equivalent precip for the Charlotte metro and even more for the Upstate of SC. I have not gone this bullish yet, but it does make me pay attention.
Here is the call map for the Carolinas. Keep in mind that everybody, except possible the northern foothills, is fair game to see a transition to light freezing rain or freezing drizzle by Monday evening or night, and a glazing of ice is likely. These are snow accumulations on the map. In the area of highest ice concern, 0.25" to even 0.5" of ice is possible on top of some snow accumulation.
These are general ideas, and there will always be localized variations, even on a perfect forecast map. And don't take the exact lines drawn as absolute truth.....give it some wiggle room one way or another. Also keep in mind there will almost certainly be some higher totals than indicated in some mountain areas.
Bottom line is it looks like travel will gradually become difficult (if not impossible in many areas) from later tonight in SC and through the morning and day tomorrow in NC.
12 comments:
The reason for the upward trend in the QPF is because the modles coming back around to their selves stilll low toward the VA/NC boreder though and i expect a change..Chirs
Yeah...all really about the southern piece of energy holding its own longer. You knew it was a possibility all along...looks like it is indeed happening.
Thanks Matthew, btw, be careful going to work and coming home tomorrw.
So as long as this comes true the NWS Raleigh will upgarde all area to warnings and i beleive thats partially why the the Blacksburg office issued Winter Storm watches for their northern NC countis 1-4 inches of snow with up to quarter inch of ice..Chris
Thanks Matthew! I assume CH is on the line with 2" or so of snow and .25" of Krispy Kreme frosting.... NMM looked amazing, GFS a little better, NAM a little better; the trend is our friend!
Ben
Also the 18z registering a little colder NW of Raleigh so meaning more snow are you seeing the same thing? Chris
Radar trends indicatign that this thing is not weakening as it draws closer to southern NC im interested to see what the 0z model output for us is going to say..but i think areas form Raleigh N to VA than west of Raleigh i think that area gonna probably have to be upgraded to a warning.Chris
It appears to be moving quicker than forecasted
Matt, with the models trending a little colder and it seems to be moving faster, can that possibly mean more snow and ice for Eastern NC, all the way to the sound?
~Brandon
Matt, with the models trending a little colder and it seems to be moving faster, can that possibly mean more snow and ice for Eastern NC, all the way to the sound?
~Brandon
@Brandon - If it comes earlier, then there is going to be a lot more snow than ice..
How aout the 0z NAM matt coming in wetter now and i see colder as well are you sseeing the same thing? Chris
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