Storm Post-mortem....

>> Thursday, January 17, 2008

First of all, yesterday was the heaviest traffic day ever logged on my blog, and I thank you!

Now, I always like to look back after a storm system passes and see what went well and what didn't with the forecast. All of the ideas I posted are archived below.

Overall, I am fairly happy with how my forecast panned out. The snowfall was pretty much right about what I was anticipating. However, the ice threat never really materialized for most folks. I believe the reason was the timing of the clouds thickening yesterday. For the southern Piedmont, the clouds really thickened between 3 and 5pm, and that really cut down on any radiational cooling before the precip arrived. So, instead of temps being in the mid 30s when the precip initially arrived, we were in the upper 30s to around 40. Therefore, as the atmosphere saturated, most spots cooled down to 32 or 33 degrees instead of 28-30 degrees. That pretty much eliminated the freezing rain threat. But I think we can all live with that.

All in all, I thought the forecast panned out pretty well.

Now, it is on to the next system which is looking very interesting....I will have a full post on that one later this evening. Stay tuned!

4 comments:

WinstonSalemDC 5:05 PM  

Mattthew, some of the models this late afternoon look rather robust for snow in the Mid-Atlantic, including central North Carolina, on Saturday. It appears that it will be an either snow or rain deal, not a mix or icy mix situation, followed by brutal cold for NC. What are your thoughts?

Matthew East 5:20 PM  

You nailed it....looks like either snow or rain, then extremely cold for a few days.

I have 8 degrees for the low in the Triad Monday morning...that might be over-doing it a bit, but you get the idea!

I will put up a full post on the Saturday storm later on this evening....

DoubleJ 11:08 PM  

Matthew, thought you did an excellent job, as well as the entire staff on the first go around. I just read Jeff's updated blog, and he seems to think a very significant event is unfolding for Charlotte (I-85) and North and West. If is going to be snow, I would love to see it, but definately do not want the ice, so hopefully this pans out. Thanks again, JJ.

Matthew East 9:37 AM  

Thanks so much! No freezing rain with this one. Read my latest post...I just laid my ideas out there.

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