GSP Conference Call....
>> Tuesday, January 15, 2008
I just finished up a conference call with the National Weather Service in GSP. They relayed that a Winter Storm Watch will be posted for the Triad region back through the foothills....it should include Rowan and Iredell counties.
They are not very bullish on snow chances for the Charlotte region. Their current thinking is a sleet/snow mixture at precip onset, changing to some freezing rain and then rain. Ice accumulations for the CLT metro on the order of a trace to 0.10"
They expect higher accumulations in the foothills up toward the Triad area. For the Triad itself, the NWS is anticipating the potential for 0.25" of ice accumulation.
Again, that is the NWS thinking.
I will be out for a while this afternoon, but sometime this evening I will give you my thoughts on this system.
5 comments:
Conference calls on your day off?! Sounds like my life! Thanks for your hard work on this blog.
whats the % for snow?
models are not sound on wedge and evaporative cooling. 2-5 inches more likely. what do you think?
Thoughts unchanged from my post yesterday. Do not see anything to change my hunch about the event except for possibly an earlier onset.
Thanks for the kudos Matthew. :-)
Agree on the model point about wedging J&J, but not sure about evaporative cooling.
I think Stormcast and other forecasting tools/models consider predicted dew points and humidity.
Something I have seen models not factor in deals with prevailing winds blowing across snow pack.
That will not be much of an issue with this setup since the majority of land mass is devoid of snow to our north and east.
Expect the wind direction to be N/NE with a swing to E/SE as the low gets on the march.
Matthew, straighten me out here if off base.
ANON
Ha ha....such is life with an potential weather threat....
You are correct ANON. Yes, the model does take evaporational cooling into account, but where the models sometime get into trouble is with underestimating how dry an airmass is initially. The drier the airmass is, the colder it gets with evaporational cooling.
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