Friday Morning....

>> Friday, January 18, 2008



The video above is encoding and should be ready to go soon if it is not now.

The models seemed to have settled into somewhat of an agreement with our storm system tomorrow. Low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and lift up to near the Carolina coast.

It looks like most of the precip that falls in the Charlotte metro, Triad, and Triangle regions will fall in the form of snow. At all spots, the precip could begin as a pretty brief period of rain but quickly change over to snow and remain as snow until the end of the event.

The astronomical snowfall amounts printed out by the NAM model yesterday appear out to lunch. However, I do like the chance of accumulating snow for much of the region.

Here is my thinking as of this morning....as always, I reserve the right to adjust this some, and I won't be in my on-air shift until this evening. That is when my final call will come out. Also, keep in mind I am cutting this video and writing this post before I have seen any of the sounding data from the 12z models.

This is one of those cases where the Piedmont will probably see more snow than the mountains from the synoptic event. And, unlike yesterday, the I-85 corridor will probably see more snow than in the northwest Piedmont. There will likely be a fairly sharp gradient from northwest to southeast in terms of snow amounts.

For Charlotte, this looks like a 2-5" type of storm, depending how much snow we lose at the beginning portions of the event that doesn't accumulate. The precip spreads in tomorrow morning, psosibly beginning as a couple of hours of rain before kicking over to all snow. The snow becomes light by Saturday night and ends.

For the Triad itself, this looks more on the order of a 1-4" snow. However, somewhere in the Triad viewing area could wind up more toward 5" where the precip and the cold air line up correctly. Snow, possibly beginning as a brief period of rain, begins close to daybreak or soon thereafter and ends tomorrow night.

For the Triangle, this also looks like a 2-5" snowstorm, with the potential for a little more where the cold air and precip line up best. Rain probably begins tomorrow morning, switching to snow by lunchtime. Snow then ends late tomorrow night.

Around the Hickory area, this looks more on the order of a 1-3" storm.

What makes this one such a tough call is the sharp edge on the northern edge of the precip. There will probably be some spots that see a dusting of snow, while only 50 miles or so southeast of there, several inches are on the ground.

Again, that is my call for now. Take it with a grain of salt. I will make necessary adjustments through this evening, and my final call will come out later this evening.

9 comments:

Anonymous 9:38 AM  

Looks like mostly rain now, maybe?

Skip Foster 9:47 AM  

Nice job, Matthew and great blog.

Is the 12z NAM enough for you to get more bullish or need to wait and see some more runs. Any radar trends that have caught your attention yet or is it too early. And finally, HOW MUCH FOR SHELBY.

;-)

Anonymous 10:06 AM  

Hey Matthew

Joe again. I am from Charlotte. Everybody seems to be pulling back on amounts, saying the storm is going to move farther east. Do you think this may just be a glitch in the modeling or does this look like a continuing trend?

Anonymous 10:15 AM  

Thanks for your in-depth thoughts on tomorrow's storm - I really appreciate it. Let's hope as the day goes on, the models trend toward a bigger snow hit!

Anonymous 10:25 AM  

Love the videos Matthew. Good job!

Gregory 12:34 PM  

Also a fan. Great videos and nice explanations. I really appreciate your blog (and Bob Crum's blog). The News14 mets are definitely the most interactive mets in the area, hands down. Thanks again and here's for hoping for a big snow in Chapel Hill!

DoubleJ 1:46 PM  

Nice video and explanation. Thanks for giving us some idea of what to expect. It is very rare to see a storm that gives us more snow than the Mountains, but it appears that this will be, thanks again.

Anonymous 2:05 PM  

What do you think the NW Cabarrus, Kannapolis area will get as of right know? Also is it possible that the temps will fall to 27-29 degree range, and if so would that drastically increase our snow accumulation?

Matthew East 2:34 PM  

Hey guys...thanks for the great comments and compliments. As it stands now, I have no real changes from the outline I gave this morning. I am working on the final forecast call as we speak....

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