Interesting Pattern Ahead

First of all, we will see scattered storms again today, and like yesterday, a couple of the storms could be strong to severe. Microbursts will be the primary severe weather threat.

A strong cold front will push through tomorrow, and along with it will come numerous showers and storms. However, the pattern behind it is something we see much more often during the cold weather months. Take a look at this...this is the surface chart off of the 12z run of the NAM model....

That is a well-defined wedge, or cold air damming, situation over our area. If this solution is correct (and it is supported by the European model), look for a damp, rainy, and cool day Saturday. I have a high of 76 going in the official forecast, but if this solution winds up being correct, that might be too high. In fact, the NAM MOS data shows a high of 72 Saturday in Charlotte, and the actual graphical data indicates much of the area remaining in the 60s for most of the day!

The 12z GFS has just rolled in, and it is now on board with a more pronounced damming situation Saturday. The new 12z GFS MOS now has a high in CLT Saturday of 76. So, I think we can move forward with a good deal of confidence in highs likely being in the mid 70s at best Saturday.

Sunday and Monday look like great days with highs in the 80s and low humidity values. I think a few backyard thermometers could dip into the upper 50s by Monday morning! A nice taste of fall!