Accumulating snow likely tonight into tomorrow morning...

>> Monday, January 19, 2009



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. The entire video focuses on out storm system tonight and tomorrow. Give it a look....

The American computer models (GFS and NAM) finally adjusted back to the European model's solution for tonight into tomorrow. The result is a much higher confidence in accumulating snow here in North Carolina.

Through the day, a rain drops or snow flakes are possible in the northern part of the state, but this will not be a big deal. The big deal arrives tonight.

Here is my thinking as of now (7am)...

A snow/rain mixture moves in by this evening into the Piedmont. As cold air rushes in at the surface and aloft, the mix turns over to all snow later this evening, and the snow continues tonight into tomorrow morning.

There will likely be what we call a deformation zone set itself up somewhere in the state, which will result in a band of heavy snow. Locations under that band will likely wind up with at least 4 or 5 inches of snow, probably more in spots. However, locations that do not get under that band of heavier snow could wind up being lucky to see a dusting.

At this point, for the Charlotte region up through the southern half of the Triad viewing region, I am going with a general 2-5" accumulation tonight into tomorrow morning. However, as discussed above, some will inevitably see less than that while some will likely see more.

The computer models will likely not handle the QPF (amount of precip) very will with this type of dynamic system, and the snow ratios will likely be higher than normal (a standard snow ratio is 10:1...i.e. 0.10" of rain = 1 inch of snow. This time around, the ratio could be more like 15:1 or 20:1). This only complicates the forecast.

I will try to keep the blog updated with any changes in my thinking as the day unfolds. And of course, as the event unfolds tonight, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for comprehensive and up to the minute coverage.



13 comments:

Diane 5:37 AM  

Wow, Matt. This was shocking! Snuck up on me, I mean- in a way. It did. I know they were saying stuff about it last week, but it wasn't like a big deal.

I wake up to a Winter Storm Watch from the NWS. Very exciting, to say the least! Keep us posted, and I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Have a blessed day!!!

Nathan C. 6:02 AM  

I am glad I woke up this early. Wooooooo! Yeahhhh!

Gerald 7:36 AM  

You guys down east enjoy the snow tomororw. I live in surry county and it looks like i will miss out on the snow but yall enjoy it.

Anonymous 8:02 AM  

Ahh, I feel retribution coming for the last 5 years of no snow. I smell it in the air!! (Please don't be a bust!)

All hail the EURO!!

Brad

Ben 8:25 AM  

wha about, say, Chapel Hill? How much is it looking like we'll get here?

SOOOOO excited!

Ben

Anonymous 8:32 AM  

What about Shelby

Anonymous 8:46 AM  

Hey Matt,
What's your thought on the LOW actually slowing down as it moves east? Would that bring more accumulations?

Brad

Anonymous 9:11 AM  

What can we expect here in western Forsyth & extreme eastern Yadkin county? Do you expect Yadkin to be tossed into the storm watch at some point today?
Ben

Burgertime 10:07 AM  

Everyone should expect 2-4 inches. The farther east the better. Right now though it looks like Charlotte/Gastonia/Concord/Monoroe could be looking at 6 inches IMO.

I'm sure Matt has actual WORK to do...the latest will be on News14.

junior weather man 10:13 AM  

Hey Matt, it seems as though it looks like cleveland county is out of the whole idea?? or maybe im not sure how close we are on the map to char. if you could please, just from your thoughts now, give me an estimate of snow accumulation??
Thank you so much!!

Anonymous 10:17 AM  

NAM is back to beefier QPF totals..Looks like Charlotte is a solid half a foot just using 10:1 ratios which are way too low.

Ben 11:28 AM  

So, at this point, are the two accumulation hotspots looking like Charlotte area and around I-95?

If so, darn. Nowhere near either.

Anonymous 12:43 PM  

Matthew I got to say congratulations you were the first and only Meteorologist in that said on Saturday night keep an eye on Tuesday because we have a snowstorm in charlotte. My question is with GSP putting charlotte under the weather storm warning. Will this make the snowfall accumulation going up from 2-6 to maybe 4-8 in charlotte?

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