3pm....

>> Monday, January 19, 2009

I do not have any real changes to my ideas from early this morning. I am still not as confident as I would like to be at this late stage in the game, but so it goes with winter weather around this part of the country.

I continue to mention that this storm system has high bust potential. Some folks are going to be happy....some folks will wind up disappointed.

I will continue to go with a general 2-5" accumulation potential from around Gaston county up through the Charlotte metro, the Triad, and the Triangle. Like discussed earlier, and in the video below, the amounts are really entirely dependent on where a potential band of heavy snow set up tonight. Locations that remain under that band will likely see more than what I have mentioned. On the other hand, there will be some places that will undoubtedly see less than that...locations that do not make it under the band of heavier snow might struggle to see a dusting.

It remains a fluid situation, but the likely heaviest corridor of snow in my opinion could run from close to Charlotte up to the Triangle, clipping through portions of the Triad region.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for tonight for the Charlotte metro up through the southern half of the Triad viewing area and the RDU area.

The NWS is hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory from Cleveland county up through the foothills and the immediate Triad itself for a general 1-2" snowfall. However, it is in this region that a Piedmont trough as well as upslope flow could wind up enhancing some snow totals. Some of these counties could of course be upgraded later tonight if heavier snow does develop up that way.

This is the time where you put the model charts away and simply watch radar, satellite, and observational trends.

8 comments:

Amy 3:12 PM  

Hey matthew... how does cherryville look for snow amounts out of the storm? will the piedmont trough affect us more than charlotte and points east?

Anonymous 3:23 PM  

Hey matthew i was wondering if you think that area in south charlotte might get anywhere from 3 to as much a 8?

Anonymous 3:56 PM  

I got a bad feeling on this. I thought they were thinking Gulf moisture was going to be tapped with this.....but it looks like they're saying we're supposed to get our moisture from the Atlantic??? That would explain the location of all the warnings. That NEVER happens though does it Matt? Even for just rain...we don't get moisture from the coast (unless it's a hurricane!!).

I'm thinking we're going to be high and dry if we're depending on "wrap around" moisture from the Atlantic IMO.

Brad

Burgertime 5:42 PM  

Brad this moisture from the coast has happened before in a snow storm...as Matt said it is a "nowcast" situation we will just wait and see.

Anonymous 6:36 PM  

It doesn't look like temps are going to get below freezing until after 4 am. We may get some snow but I don't think it's going to stick.....until it's too late. This thing's getting worse and worse. Maybe an inch?

Brad

Anonymous 9:14 PM  

hey matthew here in west meck county we have light snow falling

Anonymous 9:58 PM  

hey matthew

i have to say i believe this storm is moving just a little slower than forecast...maybe higher amounts once the moisture gets pulled in?

DoubleJ 10:29 PM  

Yeah Matthew, I just heard the track is going further south and east. 2inches may be generous now. I guess this is what happens when we don't tap from the Gulf, that is when the big storms occur.

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