Winter weather possibilities...

>> Thursday, March 06, 2014

Upper level low... weatherman's woe. That old saying in the meteorology profession is on display with our incoming system.

I cover tons of ground with this system in today's video, and I strongly encourage you to watch. A picture is worth a thousand words.

A strong upper level low will strengthen and then move through the region tonight into tomorrow. The result will be a healthy precipitation event for most of the region... the trick is nailing down precip types.

Northwest SC and western and central NC are right on a razor's edge of precipitation types with this one. 1 or 2 degrees of temperature difference 5000' aloft can mean the difference in heavy wet snow vs. rain or freezing rain.

For areas roughly near and north and west of I-85, my best estimate at this point is that an initial mixture of sleet, rain, and snow will arrive this evening. Then, as the atmosphere saturates, freezing rain and sleet will be the main precip types overnight into Friday morning. Then, as a heavy band of precip moves through with the upper level low, some bursts of heavy snow or heavy rain (depending on those temps aloft) will be possible tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

Now, a big fly in the ointment.... the European model is colder aloft than most other modeling, and therefore, it prints out more snow as opposed to freezing rain in the areas cold enough for wintry precip. This bears watching.

Again, please watch the video for more.

This is a fluid situation, and some forecast alterations are almost certain as we approach the event.


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