Bitterly cold this morning.... watching our next event Thursday-Friday AM...

In the wake of yesterday's storm system, temps are frigid this morning. Many areas have dipped into the teens in NC, and a couple of spots have even seen single digits.

It will be a chilly day today, and then it will be a bit warmer tomorrow as our next big system takes shape to our southwest.

The results of our Thursday and Friday system will largely hinge on how intense the upper level energy moving through can get. Most modeling (GFS excluded) indicates the upper level energy closing off and becoming an upper level low (ULL) as it moves through the Carolinas. If that idea is correct, and I lean toward that being the case, then I would expect some snow to fall on the northwest side of the ULL.

The 6z NAM, 0z Canadian, and 0z European all show this scenario. Temperatures aloft are borderline for snow, but if the ULL scenario is correct, I would anticipate the areas with heavier rates of precipitation to be largely snow, at least for a period of time. At this point, I would favor the northern Upstate but then especially northwest NC from roughly I-85 and points north and west.

Now, if the upper level energy never closes off (as the GFS shows), then the snow scenario will not occur. Obviously, details still to iron out.

See the video for more.... much easier to understand when I can show you the graphics that go along with this discussion.