Cooling down....

>> Thursday, February 28, 2013

No big changes in my thinking for now through the beginning of next week. The weekend still looks pretty cold, and there could be some snow showers in some spots this weekend, mainly later Saturday and Saturday night. However, east of the mountains, this does not look significant.

Speaking of the mountains, the snowy period will continue with waves of upslope snows over the next few days. The favored west and northwest facing slopes will do the best.

Next week...

Interesting goings-on in the modeling Tuesday into Wednesday. I take a detailed look at the 0z GFS and European in today's video. They both arrive at a solution that brings a low pressure area across the Carolinas that at least ends in some NC snow. However, it is one, compact upper air low on the GFS, whereas two pieces of energy phase on the European. Again, see the video for more.

Snow fans....please don't get your hopes up at this point. We are dealing with a delicate balance of lots of individual pieces of upper level energy..... 6 days out. Lots will probably change.

For instance, as I type the 6z GFS is coming in. It weakens the upper air low next week much more than the previous run, and the result is a weaker, suppressed system.

Expect lots of model variability ahead....


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