So what's next?

>> Saturday, January 26, 2013

After an icy start to our weekend, we will see some warmer temps work our way with time. In fact, by Monday, temps will be in the 50s for many and then some spots might even hit 70 Tuesday.

The 0z Friday run of the European model wound up bringing a big winter storm to the Southeast at the end of next week. The reason? It left a piece of the trough behind in the Southwest US as a closed upper low early in the week that then slowly worked eastward as the week unfolded.

The last 2 runs of the Euro, as well as almost all other model guidance, do not leave the energy behind and instead brings the whole trough through the eastern US in one piece, which would mean rain and even some thunderstorms mid-week followed by colder air, but no wintry precip.

However, the differences between the 0z Friday run of the Euro and today's run are extremely subtle early this other words, on the Euro, the difference in the cutoff solution and the non-cutoff solution are not great. Below is a chart from the 0z Saturday and the 0z Friday Euro....this is at the point the cutoff forms on the Friday run. Notice how similar overall they are.

 0z Sat run valid Monday evening:

0z Friday run valid Monday evening:

What's the point? Well, I would say odds overall don't favor the cutoff scenario. However, it is quite possible we do see that solution come back in future model runs. It does remind me a bit to the modeling behavior leading up to the system about 8 days ago.

One last nugget..... the NAM continues to cut the low off in the Southwest, like yesterday's Euro did. So, at least there's one model holdout.

6z NAM valid Tue afternoon:

Overall, I think February will present more winter weather chances in the region....I like the overall look of the pattern. The subtropical jet looks to become active, and there will still be some cold air around at times...


Anonymous 9:25 AM  

Matt, what are you seeing for the February 6-10 time frame in the mountains? NWS extended says cold, but Accuweather is all over the place. They were showing very cold. Now showing 50 degrees in Boone.

Matthew East 9:29 AM  

I'll have to dig a little deeper on that one....

Anonymous 9:57 AM  

Trying to decipher what "cut-off" means and what days you are looking at. In plain English are you calling for another winter storm next Friday and Saturday?

Matthew East 4:48 AM  

No, doesn't look likely. A cutoff low is just an area of low pressure that is 'cut off' from the main upper level flow... so, it only slowly moves along.

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