Irene

Below is a quick video about Irene and the system's future. As I am typing, the 11pm advisory has Irene with max sus. winds of 70mph, just shy of hurricane intensity. Irene is looking increasingly healthy, and I think there is a good chance it becomes the first hurricane of the season soon.



The biggest forecast problem regarding the future intensity of Irene depends on land interaction. The overall environmental and oceanic conditions will be favorable for strengthening most of this week.

Hispaniola is the biggest road block for Irene. If the system just skirts the coast, or misses Hispaniola altogether to the north, then the system could continue to strengthen. However, if is plows directly into Hispaniola and the high mountains there, it would very significantly weaken.

See the video for more...but the track of Irene all depends on how soon the system slowly bends to the north in response to a weakness between two ridges. Timing that out precisely is virtually impossible, and when you combine that with the fact that Irene will begin to run essentially parallel to the US coast, an exact landfall forecast at this point is fruitless.

I am out of the weather office this week. However, I have lined up some excellent folks to keep this site updated with great information while I am away. Keep checking back for more information this week. And of course, remember tropical updates around the clock on News 14 Carolina at :21 and :51 past the hour. And if Irene winds up threatening the Carolina coast, we will have extensive coverage for you like no other station can provide.