Irene: Tuesday Morning

Let's get right into the latest on Irene as we continue to see this storm intensify. Irene is now a category 2 hurricane and will likely become a major hurricane, cat 3 or higher, by tomorrow. Yesterday the issue was the forecast track shifting east and causing big time issues for parts of the Carolinas. That is still the case today but take a look at the latest tropical models from this morning . . .

Indeed while the majority of them continue this storm on an ominous track into central NC, the overall group has continued east. You now have a couple models missing the US completely, while a large number of the group bend the storm enough to be almost parallel with the coast. Again it's a little to early to say for certain, but I'm a lot more optimistic today than I was this time yesterday morning. Eventually you have to figure the eastward movement of the track would slow down . . . but if we can get another day or so with this kind of shift we may be able to keep this thing off the coast. That's the best case scenario that I see right now.

Here's another image for you to ponder. This is the morning run of the GFS . . .

If you remember yesterday it had the center of the storm pretty much right in the middle of NC. Now this has moved to where the actual center remains off shore. We'd still be looking at a bunch of wind, especially along the coast. There would also be major erosion issues for the Outer Banks, and some heavy rain for the eastern part of the state. But in terms of major damage from a direct hit . . . it doesn't appear that would be the case.

Now again . . . keep in mind this is the model trend at this point. Things could change. We're watching the timing of that east coast trough very carefully to see how it affects the path of Irene. This is one of those plan for the worst hope for the best scenarios at this moment. I'm going to hold off on posting the latest track from the NHC right now, but will be back around 11 or noon and we'll see if they are thinking like I am about maybe shifting it to the east.

Have a good one!