Tuesday Midday...
>> Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Fay made landfall in southwest Florida overnight last night, and the system is actually looking quite healthy on radar imagery. Fay will slowly cross southern Florida today and tonight and likely emerge off of the Florida Atlantic coast tomorrow morning. South Florida is quite flat with lots of swamps, so weakening will be slow to occur.
Once out in the Atlantic, Fay will be over the Gulf stream, and the upper air pattern will be favorable for strengthening, assuming the system stays off of the coast. The scenario I have outlined in previous posts is seeming more likely, and I think another landfall will occur on the upper Georgia or possible South Carolina coast. How strong Fay will be at that landfall is impossible to tell, but like I said, the pattern looks favorable for strengthening.
Once back inland again, Fay will travel slowly off to the west or northwest. As it stands now, most of the soaking rains look to stay to the south of North Carolina. Unfortunate. However, I am not ready to say we will not see any rain just yet....there is some chance the remnants might try to bend up toward West Virginia, and if that is the case, we could see some nice rain. So that is still up in the air a bit.
Our next tropical wave, Invest 94L, is out in the Atlantic. Some modeling really strengthens this system quickly, but I am more of the thought that this wave will be similar to Fay....development will be slow to occur, and might not happen until it gets closer to the Bahamas. We need to keep a close eye on this one because to me, this looks like it will either hit the U.S. East coast or re-curve out to sea. Stay tuned....we have about a week to keep watching that one.
4 comments:
Fickle Fay. Hey Matthew, where has the oppressive humidity and heat been this July and August? For the most part, it has been rather comfortable, even crisp at night.
with this latest track, would we be in line for tornados?
Hey Matthew... do you think we will get something out of invest 94l when it develops, if we don't get nothing out of fay??
Simply a function of the upper air pattern. For much of this month, we have had a trough in the eastern US. That equates to less humidity and cooler than average temps around here. We did have some heat in July...stretch of 90+ days if memory serves. But much of August has been relatively nice.
As for tornadoes, possible if the center of Fay gets far enough northwest. However, like I mentioned in the post, the heaviest rains could very well miss us, and if they do, so does the biggest tornado threat.
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