Thursday Evening...

A couple of storm systems will affect the Carolinas over the next 48 hours. The first one is pretty weak, but it will being a chance of scattered showers tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening. It will still be warm tomorrow with lots of 70s for highs.

The second, and more significant system, will roll through Saturday. This is a very complex system, and one that the details are still not very easy to resolve. However, I am concerned about the possibility of some severe weather.

For those of you meteorologically inclined, here are some numbers off of the 12z NAM for Charlotte valid at 4pm Saturday.

CAPE: 1066
Helicity: 489
EHI: 3.62
LI: -5.3
TT: 56

Those are some pretty impressive numbers. If things were to verify in that fashion, we could have a big problem on our hands.

However, like I mentioned, there are really more questions than answers with this system at this point. The latest GFS model has come in and looks to keep the biggest severe weather threat to the south of North Carolina. So, we will see....

The primary window of opportunity for severe weather looks to be from midday Saturday into early evening.

We will fine-tune this forecast as we approach the event.