4pm Update....

Quick update on tomorrow's severe weather threat. As it stands now, it looks like the surface low will track somewhere pretty close to the NC/SC border. If that is the case, then the primary tornado and damaging wind threat would be across South Carolina. Across North Carolina, severe weather would still be possible, but mainly from hail-producing thunderstorms.

The big key is where exactly a frontal boundary is in the morning. It will be interesting to see how far south in the state the front pushes. Like I mentioned this morning, that front is sort of the railroad tracks for tomorrow's low pressure area. So, how far south the front makes it will be very important.

This is a tricky situation, and frankly one that I don't have a lot of confidence in the details of as of yet. I still think severe weather is possible, but if that low does track near the state line, then the big problems would probably stay to our south.

Stay tuned...