Active weather ahead...

Two systems are still poised to affect our area. The first system, the weaker of the two, will spread some showers in later this afternoon and into this evening. I am not convinced that there won't be a storm or two involved with that system as well.

The second, and more potent, system will move through later tomorrow. What will occur is that second low pressure area will track along a frontal boundary that will be draped somewhere across the region. That front will sag southward behind this evening's system, and that will sort of serve as the 'track' for the second system tomorrow.

Exactly where the low pressure area tracks tomorrow is very important. Most modeling now takes the low pressure directly over or just south of the southern Piedmont. However, the NAM model continues to insist on a more northerly track, taking the low to the north of the area. The farther north the low tracks, the more unstable our airmass will become tomorrow, and thus, the greater the severe weather potential.

Hopefully, the 12z models today will give us a better idea on the track of the low.

As it stands now, I still think the potential is there for severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. How great that threat is is still in question.

Stay tuned...