Well, back in the office today. Yesterday was a day of various doctor's appointment for members of my family, so there was no time to put up a post.

Anyway, Florence has indeed survived its battle with shear discussed below. It is still battling shear, but that should relax a good deal over the next 24-48 hours. If all goes the way it appears now, I think Florence has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane by something this weekend.

The computer models are in amazing agreement that Florence will re-curve before reaching the US coast.



This forecast track is due to an approaching trough picking up Florence and turning it out to sea. We will see how things to develop, but it is too early in the game for people along the US east coast to let their guard down. Stay tuned...

Around here, lower dewpoints are filtering in this afternoon, and we will enjoy comfortable weather in general for at least the next week or so. Looks like we are definitely continuing the step-down from the warm weather season to the cold weather season.

Read more...

TD 6 Struggling

I tell ya....TD 6 is not looking healthy right now. It is being dramatically affected by shear from a big trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean. That trough will lift out by mid-week.

I see two options here. First option: the shear basically tears TD 6 completely apart and the system dissipates. Second option: the system continues to battle the shear, and survives until that trough lifts out and the environment improves.

At this point, it honestly looks like about a 50/50 shot. If you were to force me to, I would tell you that I certainly am no longer bullish about the prospects for TD 6.

However, even if TD 6 doesn't survive, there is a strong tropical wave located between it and the African coast. It appears the overall prospects of that system developing are a little better.

Around here, there are some scattered storms this afternoon. The heaviest rainfall amounts so far in our viewing area have been in Cleveland County.

Read more...

TD 6 Discussion

Tropical Depression 6 formed this afternoon roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. As far as newly-formed tropical depressions go, it looks fairly healthy. Looking at Dvorak intensity estimates from satellite data, the system looks to contain roughly the same winds as it had when the NHC prepared the 5pm advisory. So, I doubt the NHC will upgrade the system to a tropical storm with the 11pm advisory this evening. However, the overall environmental conditions are not overly hostile, so I think we will see TD 6 become Tropical Storm Florence by the end of Labor Day.

The system is heading to the northwest at the present time. That is because a large trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean is influencing the system. See picture below...

That trough will lift out, and its influence over the tropical system should end by Tuesday. At that point, the motion of TD 6 should bend back more toward the west as a large high builds over the system to the north. That largely westward motion should continue for the rest of the week.

TD 6 will likely be fairly close to the eastern US coast by the 11th or 12th. It could get turned out to sea at that point, or it could threaten the eastern US. Too soon to tell, but we will watch it closely. Stay tuned...

Read more...

TD 6 now formed....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


I will post my initial thoughts on the system later this evening....

Read more...

TD 6 Soon to Form

Per the NHC in their 11am discussion...

"THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON."

This is the tropical wave I discussed on the air yesterday. Most computer models strengthen the system and move is generally west-northwestward for the next 5-7 days.....

Read more...

What a beautiful day! 11am temps are slowly warming into the mid 70s and dewpoints are way down in the lower 60s. Combine that nice airmass with a lot of sun, and we have ourselves a beautiful Saturday out there.

Good day for taking a walk, doing some outdoor work, or just spending some time on the front porch. Of course, with college football getting into full swing today, I think a lot of folks will likely be spending time indoors. I certainly can't fault you for that. Gotta love a nice beautiful day on the first full day of college football action....doesn't get much better.... Enjoy!

Read more...

Ernesto is now a tropical depression, and the NHC has issued its final advisory on the system. However, strong winds are still occurring to the east of the center as the system takes on extra-tropical characteristics.

Read more...

Ernesto made landfall just prior to midnight just west of Cape Fear, NC. At the time of landfall, the official intensity from the NHC was sustained winds at 70mph with a pressure of 988mb. We will see in time what the official final intensity was when everything gets evaluated down the road.

For our area, we are doing well, and most of the rain is exiting to the northeast. Actually, it feels very nice outside right now with temps in the mid to upper 60s and a breeze out of the north.

Hopefully, everyone that was and is in the the direct path of Ernesto fared well with the storm.

On a different note, I was saddened by the offensive performance of my Mississippi State Bulldogs last night. The defense looked very good, but man, the offense had some struggles. Hopefully we can get it going. But congrats to South Carolina on a hard-fought win last night.

And, my whole family continues to battle some sort of cold-allergy nasty thing. My wife has had it the worst, and she has had very little sleep this week. I am in the process of battling it now...you might notice that I sound a bit stopped up on the air today.

More later as time allows. It has been a busy period here at News 14 Carolina. Baby being born, new staff coming aboard, tropical storm making landfall, live hits around the clock for over the past 24 hours....I think everyone could use some quiet weather for a few days!

Read more...