Snow potential and brutal cold on the way....

Above is the video. Really challenging forecast still regarding snow potential. Frankly, there is way more disagreement between the various computer models than I would like to see at this range. A few differences I'm looking at:

* RPM and Canadian model are much quicker with the arrival of precip than most models.

* GFS remains further south with the system.

* European model generally the furthest north and strongest with the system.

* Individual ensemble members of GFS and European are generally boom or bust... either big snows or weak and next to nothing.

* GFS snow footprint has been trending slowly northward over the last several runs. Not big adjustments, but they are there. See below:

It is still too early in the game for me to mention specific accumulation ideas, but here's the idea from me at this point:

I think the European solution is about as far north as this can go, and I think there's a decent chance the GFS continues to slowly adjust north.

However, the weakening seen in the latest UKMET model (see video) gives me some pause, and there is still a chance this could wind up trending weaker, as some of those ensemble members I mentioned indicate.

If you want a decent system, the overall key is keeping this piece of energy rolling through the southern Plains as independent and intense as possible .