Cold, blustery conditions around the region today. Then, look for 2017 to get off to a wet start. Mild mid-week, and then I continue to watch the time period centered around next week for winter weather possibilities.
Today's video has all of the details:
Wet start to 2017 on the way, and no changes from me regarding the need to watch the January 6-10 period for potential winter weather chances in parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic.
I identified this time period a while back due to pattern recognition, and while individual runs of models will flip and flop, I still think that period holds interest.
Details in today's video:
Quiet today, but showers arrive late tonight. Cold air takes over for Friday into the New Year's weekend, another system moves in Sunday-Monday, and I continue to watch the period January 6-10 for potential winter mischief somewhere across the Upper Southeast/ mid-Atlantic.
Today's video:
In today's video, we look at a quick-hitting pattern we are now in plus look at longer-range ideas into January, including trying to sniff out any wintry weather potential.
Plus, a look at the final week of 2016's weather.
Today's video:
Slowly moderating temps over the next couple of days as sunshine makes its return around the region. Plus a look at Christmas weekend and the final week of the year.
Today's video:
A look at a little freezing rain for some today, the forecast through Christmas weekend, and a peek into the longer range.
Some minor icing possible Saturday morning as well.
All of the details on what's ahead in today's video:
Then a little freezing rain possible Saturday morning followed by Sunday showers and more potential wintry mischief early next work week.
Today's video:
Complicated setup then unfolds next week.
Today's video:
Complicated setup over the next few weeks, but I still think multiple rounds of arctic air are on the way.
Details in today's video:
TONS of ground covered in today's video, including what could be 3 big shots of arctic air ahead between now and Christmas and any precipitation chances to go along with that cold air.
Coldest air thus far this season arrives by Friday.
A look at what's ahead, including long-term December thoughts, in today's video:
Shot of arctic air arrives late-week.
All of the details in today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
Another big rain-producing storm system on the way Sunday through Tuesday....then a big blast of cold air later next week.
Details, plus a wrap-up of this week's storm system, in today's video:
Then quiet the rest of the week followed by another big storm system by Sunday.
All of the active weather details in today's video:
Another system possible Sunday-Monday.
Today's video:
And it begins with a multi-day Southeast rain event.
Today's video is action-packed:
Then, a widespread rain event looking likely next week.
Today's video has all of the details:
In today's video, I take a detailed look at the weather on this huge travel day.
Also, I expect a fundamental change in the overall weather pattern to begin next week. We will be changing from this primarily dry weather pattern of the past couple of months to a pattern that will feature much more frequent storm systems and precipitation chances. The first of those storm systems should bring the Southeast some decent rain Tuesday into Wednesday.
Details in today's video:
However, I see indications of a fundamental shift in the overall weather pattern down the road.
Today's video:
Plus, a big shot of cold air by Sunday, some mountain snow in the offing, and a wildfire update.
Today's video:
Then, sharply colder by Sunday.
Also, an update on the drought and wildfire situation in today's video:
Sunshine back in full-force tomorrow with a warming trend this week followed by another big shot of cold air later in the upcoming weekend.
Today's video:
Also, the drought worsening across much of the Southeast.
Today's video:
Today's video:
Plus, no sign of any real relief from the dry conditions over the western Carolinas.
Today's video:
Lots of above average temperatures on the way. Today's video:
Today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
But, a warm weekend appears on the way!
Today's video:
Then, much cooler air arrives.
Today's video:
Then turning sharply colder by late Friday.
Today's video has all of the details:
Then much cooler for Friday and the weekend.
Today's video:
Details on that, a cool-down for the weekend, and the tropics in today's video:
Here's the latest Carolina Weather Video:
All of the information contained in today's video:
Lots of ground covered in today's video:
All of the information in today's video:
Plus all of the details on Tropical Storm Matthew:
Still watching the tropics carefully as well.
Today's video:
But a great weekend is on tap. Also keeping a close watch on Matthew-to-be.
Closely watching the tropics as well.
Today's video:
In fact, lots of changeable weather in the offing. Lots covered in today's video:
Drier, warmer weather as we head into the weekend. Then, a very complex forecast scenario next week.
Details in today's video:
Remnants of Julia bringing some wet weather to much of the Carolinas today.
Today's video:
Best piedmont rain chances probably tomorrow.
Today's video:
Details in today's video:
Today's video:
Today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
All of the details in the latest edition of the Carolina Weather Video:
Details on what's ahead in today's video:
Full details in the video:
Plus, some fantastic holiday weekend weather ahead once the impact from TD 9 exit.
Today's video:
Plus, a fantastic holiday weekend is on tap.
Today's video:
All of the information in today's video:
Continuing to watch the tropics as well.
Today's video:
Plus, I spend a lot of time delving into the tropics in today's video:
And the tropical wave in the northeast Caribbean could wind up having US implications.
Today's video:
Lots to talk about in today's edition of the video:
Much lower humidity and cooler temps are here, but the heat returns late week. Also, the tropics are percolating.... details in today's video:
Details in today's video, plus a look at the tropics:
Plus, the details on Tropical Storm Fiona:
The daily chances for storms are gradually on the rise, and the heat and humidity continue. However, a pattern change is on the way for next week. See the video for more:
The heat marches on, but some changes coming down the road.
Today's video:
Effecting rain-producing scattered showers and storms again today. Hotter and drier for the weekend.
Today's video:
Today's video has all of the details:
Hotter for the weekend, then cooler again early next week.
Today's video:
Some big flooding problems yesterday and last night in portions of the region, and rain chances remain high today and tomorrow. Also, Hurricane Earl made landfall early this morning in Belize.
Today's video:
Hotter and drier for Saturday. Also, Earl is in the Caribbean and could become a hurricane today.
Today's video:
Heat set to take a bit of a break, plus a look at the tropics.
Today's video:
Plus, a tropical system could be forming in the Caribbean Sea.
Today's video:
Heat and humidity continue, but subtle relief is in sight.
Today's video:
Details in today's video:
Also, tonight is the night of the big Media Mayhem School Bus Race out at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Always a lot of fun.... come on out!
Lots of heat and humidity.
Today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
But the heat and humidity really crank this weekend.
Today's video:
Hot weekend on the way.
Today's video:
We could be building toward a very hot upcoming weekend as well.
Today's video:
Unsettled Saturday on the way.
Today's video:
Then storm chances increase for the weekend.
Today's video:
Then hotter for the rest of the work week.
Today's video:
Today's video:
Plus, a hot weekend is on the way.
Today's video:
Then heat builds tomorrow and Saturday.
Today's video:
Then oppressive heat Friday and Saturday.
Today's video:
Full weather details for the big Fourth of July holiday weekend in today's video:
And those chances continue right through the holiday weekend.
Today's video:
But the holiday weekend could be fairly unsettled.
Today's video:
Better storm chance late today into tonight.
Today's video:
Today's video has all of the details:
A fantastic weekend is on the way.
Today's video:
Still somewhat unsettled through Friday, but then the weekend weather looks awesome.
Today's video:
Changeable weather throughout the week.... next weekend looking fantastic.
Today's video:
Today's video:
But a hot weekend is on tap.
Today's video:
Great mid-week weather; hot weekend on tap.
Today's video:
Plus a look at next week's weather and the next potential tropical mischief.
Today's video has all of the details about our upcoming weather!
That means a continuation of scattered shower and storm chances.
Details in today's video:
Today's video:
I just wanted to share some memories and photos of what was a wonderful, beautiful vacation last week. The primary reason for the trip was to celebrate my oldest daughter's 13th birthday. Having 5 children, sometimes individual time for the kids can be a challenge to obtain. So, we have decided to take each of our daughters on a trip like this when they turn 13. It's just our gift to them.
The trip was a week-long cruise on the beautiful Carnival Magic. Folks, this ship is spectacular. There's always something fun to do (or plenty of areas to relax and do nothing, if that is your preference!). Even though there are over 3,000 passengers onboard, never once did it feel crowded.
We are still under the influence of an upper level low today with cooler temps and scattered showers remaining a possibility. However, a big-time warm-up arrives soon.
Today's video:
Turning cooler over the weekend.
Today's video:
Storm chances increase later in the work week.
Today's video:
Weekend looks great.
Today's video:
Cooler setup working into the region, but some shower chances remain.
Today's video:
Then trending cooler later this week.
Today's video:
Plus, rain arrives over the weekend.
Today's video:
Today's video:
But, shower and storm chances set to increase. I also look at your weekend forecast and the possibility of cooler weather in the longer range.
Then unsettled mid-week weather.
Today's video:
Next rain chance not until late in the work week.
Today's video:
Plus a look at when our next storm system will arrive.
Today's video:
A look at what's ahead in today's video:
Great weekend ahead...
Details in today's video:
Plus, a look ahead at next week in today's video:
Another freeze on the day.
Today's video:
Details in today's video:
Multiple freeze opportunities ahead, beginning tonight.
Today's video:
A frost or freeze still looks possible by mid-week as well.
Today's video:
Plus, a freeze (maybe freezes) next week?
Today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
Next system brings rain, storm potential Thursday into Friday.
Today's video:
Much warmer and drier weather will be in place by this afternoon, then the weather looks great tomorrow and Wednesday. Our next system then arrives Thursday.
Details on all of that, plus some longer-range ideas, in today's video:
Plus, a look at our next system later next week and the chance of an early April chill in today's edition of the video:
Another system moves in by late Easter Sunday, and I also take a look at the long-range pattern as we head into April in today's video:
Couple of systems heading our way.
Details in today's video:
Plus, long-term thoughts discussed in today's video:
I also look at our next blast of cold air headed our way in today's video:
Plus a look at the forecast as we head toward Easter.
Today's video:
Much cooler this weekend with some rain chances arriving.
Today's video:
A look back at the big storm later yesterday, looking ahead to our weekend system.
Today's video:
Plus a look at what's ahead in today's video:
In today's video, I look at the Lower Mississippi Valley flooding, our weather changes this weekend, and share my ideas for the rest of the month.
Plus huge flooding problems in the Lower Mississippi Valley:
Big-time flooding in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, a look at when that system arrives in the Carolinas, and some long-term thoughts for the rest of the month in today's video:
Great work week weather in the Carolinas:
A big, slow-moving system will bring a dual flood and severe weather threat to the Plains and Mississippi Valley through the week.
The work week will be warm and quiet in the Carolinas before that system plays a part in our weekend weather.
Today's video:
Big warm-up on the way next week as flooding and possibly severe weather issues take over in the Mississippi Valley.
Today's video:
Next system could end with some snow for some tomorrow night... next week warmer and eventually unsettled.
Today's video:
Weather changes begin with the arrival of a cold front tonight. Another system might being a little snow to some in the region Thursday night.
Today's video:
Next system due in by Wednesday.
Today's video:
Wrapping up yesterday's system and a look ahead to the medium and longer range:
All of the information in today's video:
Full details here:
All of the details in today's video:
Still tons of uncertainty with next week's system.
Today's video:
Then a big system next week as the pattern flips back to colder.
Today's video:
Big system possible next week, plus long range thoughts.... all covered in today's video:
A recap of our departing system, a look at the forecast into next week including an early-week storm system, and some long-range thoughts, all in today's video:
All about it in today's video, including final call maps:
Here are some very initial ideas for the winter weather potential starting late tonight through Monday/ Monday evening. My initial call maps are at the bottom of this discussion and remain subject to change through the day.
The parent high responsible for the maintanence of cold air damming will quickly slide out to sea Monday, so the type of cold air damming that will be in play will be what's called in-situ. That means the dome of cold air at the surface is maintained by evaporational cooling from precipitation.
A HUGE key to this forecast tomorrow is getting heavier rates of precipitation into the dome of initially very cold, extremely dry air. For the areas north of I-40, I like the odds of getting at least some decent snow for a period of time late tonight into tomorrow morning, which should help to lock the wedge in for a while.
Further to the south, toward Charlotte and the Upstate, I do not like the trends right now on a lot of the modeling regarding precipitation rates tomorrow. At this point, my thinking is that precip rates through the day tomorrow will be quite light for most of this area, and if that's the case, the wedge will not get as firmly established, and it won't be quite as cold as it potentially could be (for the more technically-inclined, I call this inefficient wet-bulbing...where dewpoints creep up at a higher rate than the temperature drops would otherwise be with higher precip rates).
So, this region could wind up with a lot of clouds, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets after possibly brief snow initially.
The band of heaviest precip will approach from the west tomorrow evening, and assuming what I mentioned above is correct, I would expect the Charlotte metro and Upstate to be above freezing, albeit barely. Areas further to the north, toward Hickory, Wilkesboro, and such, temps could still be sub-freezing. However, as we get toward tomorrow night, temperatures above the wedge of cold air at the surface warm substantially so that collection of freezing rain becomes less and less efficient, and it becomes a self-limiting process.
**What could go wrong??*** Well, if precip tomorrow morning winds up heavier than it appears right now, the dome of cold air will get locked into place further to the south, and areas down toward the Charlotte and Upstate could wind up with a longer period of icing. Also, initial snow totals, in this scenario, might have to be beefed up in northern NC.
Most locations in the region should climb above freezing tomorrow night as rain continues to move through. So, any road problems should actually improve as we get into Tuesday morning.
However, there is a good potential for travel issues as we get later into Monday in many areas as even a minor glazing of ice creates problems.
This goes without saying, but this is an extremely complex forecast scenario, and there are likely some surprises on tap in some areas. We will see.
Bitterly cold this weekend, and still watching Monday's system carefully.
Today's video:
All of the details in today's video:
Still watching a system next week that might produce some wintry precip in parts of the region as well.
Lots covered in today's video:
Maybe some snow, too.
Today's video:
I take a look at this morning's light snow, some coastal snow possible Saturday night and Sunday, cold weather next week with some flakes possible, and long-range thoughts, in today's video:
A snowflakes possible tonight, discussing the coastal low Sunday, cold and and maybe some snowflakes next week, and a look at the long-range, all in today's video:
An intense line of rain and storms will slowly move through the Carolinas today. While I don't expect an outbreak of severe weather, some damaging winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, are possible. Also, many rain amounts will at least be in the 1-2" range, so some localized flash flooding issues are possible.
A potential system will try to impact part of the region Sunday, but the models are all over the place with how they handle the associated upper level energy.
Next week will be cold, and possibly extremely cold by later in the week, and with lots of upper level energy flying around, some snow showers could be wrung out from time to time.
I cover all of this in an extensive Wednesday edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to watch.
Cooler today, showers and storms tomorrow, cooler with another system Sunday-Monday, and a big-time blast of arctic air next week.
Today's video:
Showers and storms Wednesday, then back to a cooler and potentially unsettled pattern ahead.
Today's video:
Very warm early next week, then the pattern flips by late week.
All of the details in today's video:
Mild weather early next week, and then we flip back to a chillier pattern.
All of that covered in today's video:
Great weekend weather, warm early next week, then the pattern flips cold again.
I cover all of this, plus take a look at the early February pattern, in today's video:
More fun and games later this week?
Today's video:
Today needs to be used for preparations ahead of an incoming major and disruptive winter storm.
See the video for my thoughts:
Some folks will have a period of light snow today that could whiten the ground in some areas, but a major winter storm is looking increasingly likely to impact a lot of the region starting tomorrow night.
I go over all of the details in today's video:
The entire 12z suite of model guidance is in, and as I mentioned in the video and on air this morning, my confidence continues to slowly increase that a significant winter storm will occur for at least a sizeable portion of NC and likely down into Upstate SC as well.
As mentioned on the video, the GFS has been the furthest north with the low pressure track/ energy transfer and weakest with the cold air damming signature. That remains the case as of the 12z, but it has shifted south a bit, and the GFS ensembles are generally farther south than the operational.
 |
| Operational GFS |
 |
| GFS Ensemble Mean |
 |
| GFS Operational |
 |
| Canadian Operational |
 |
| Canadian Operational |
 |
| Canadian Operational |
 |
| Euro 72 hour Operational |
 |
| Euro 72 hour Ensemble Mean |
 |
| Euro 84 hour Operational |
 |
| Euro 84 Hour Ensemble Mean |
 |
| Euro 96 hour Operational |
 |
| Euro 96 hour Ensemble Mean |
© Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008
Back to TOP
