Winter Storm Potential Growing for Most of North Carolina

The entire 12z suite of model guidance is in, and as I mentioned in the video and on air this morning, my confidence continues to slowly increase that a significant winter storm will occur for at least a sizeable portion of NC and likely down into Upstate SC as well.

As mentioned on the video, the GFS has been the furthest north with the low pressure track/ energy transfer and weakest with the cold air damming signature. That remains the case as of the 12z, but it has shifted south a bit, and the GFS ensembles are generally farther south than the operational.

Operational GFS

GFS Ensemble Mean

GFS Operational

The Canadian model has continued to indicate a strong wedge signature and created an icy mess for much of the damming region of NC into Upstate SC.

Canadian Operational

Canadian Operational

Canadian Operational

But my model of choice continues to be the European. In general, it has been rock-solid consistent and in lock-step with its ensembles with this system. It made a slight southward jog at 12z, but the overall theme and its handling of the transition of energy from the TN Valley low to to the SC coast has been incredibly steady. Below is a comparison of the 12z operational Euro and its ensemble mean plots.

Euro 72 hour Operational

Euro 72 hour Ensemble Mean

Euro 84 hour Operational

Euro 84 Hour Ensemble Mean

Euro 96 hour Operational

Euro 96 hour Ensemble Mean

So what does all of this mean?? First of all, the caveat. The primary piece of energy that spawns this storm system is just moving ashore on the West Coast over the next 6-12 hours. So, some significant modeling changes are possible as this piece of energy gets better sampled.

However, I think the chances continue to increase that a significant winter weather event will impact much of NC, especially I-95 and westward and down into the Upstate of SC. It goes without saying that a huge winter storm is on the way for the Virginias. For southern NC and into the Upstate, this could wind up producing significant freezing rain/ sleet sandwiched by snow at the front and back end of the system. As you head further north in NC, less ice and more snow would likely be involved.

It is still too soon for specifics, so I can't answer questions for everyone's backyard. That will come as we continue to hone in on this system over the next couple of days. We are 3 days out and I completely reserve the right to make changes moving forward. I am just giving you a 'look behind the curtain' as to what I am thinking as of snow.