Drier and cooler air poised to arrive

Plus, a big shot of cold air on the way next week.

Details in today's edition of the video:

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Unsettled Wednesday Weather

Plus, cooler temps for the new year and a look at the long range much deeper into January included in today's video:

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Mild and wet to wrap up 2015

Much colder to begin 2016.

Today's video:

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Temps go the wrong way today

Showers at times today and tonight in the Carolinas while a big round of severe weather rumbles through the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.

A soaking rain event is then on the way Wednesday followed by a MUCH colder airmass to ring in 2016.

Today's video:

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Record warmth and continued unsettled

Again today, lots to talk about in the video:

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Amazingly warm; unsettled today and tomorrow....

Lots to talk about in today's video...give it a look:

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Mild and unsettled run-up to Christmas

All of the details in today's video:

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Warmer and wetter weather ahead....

Back in the saddle this morning after some time away from the weather charts last week. After some chilly weekend weather, big-time weather changes are underway.

Today's video has all of the details:

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Very warm December weekend

Storm system then arrives Monday.

Today's video:

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Warm finish to the week on the way

A big-ticket storm system will likely produce some severe weather this weekend to our west, and that system arrives in the Carolinas Monday.

Also, my confidence is growing regarding a pattern change later this month.

Today's video:

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Mild weather through the work week...

Then warm this weekend.

However, are some early indications of a pattern change showing up?

All of the details in today's video;

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Quiet and mild weather for a while

Here's today's Carolina Weather Video:

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A weak system today, then quiet for a while...

Today's video:

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Nice weather through the weekend

I apologize for the lack of videos this week. Our hardware was having some audio issues.

However, the Carolina Weather Video is back today!

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Wet start to December

Today's Carolina Weather Video:

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Warming trend continues into the holiday weekend

All of your holiday weekend weather, locally and around the country, in today's video:

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Chilly start to Thanksgiving week

Lots of ground covered in today's video:

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Cooler, drier air poised to arrive

Today's video has all of the details:

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Round of rain and storms tonight

Then sunny and cool. Shot of cold air on the way Sunday and Monday.

Today's video;

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Dynamic system heading our way

Big shot of chilly air this weekend.

Details in today's video:

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Changes occurring

Today's Carolina Weather Video...rain departing, sunshine returns, and a chilly weekend ahead:

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Big changes coming

Mild today, showers and a few storms tomorrow, then much cooler by Sunday. 

Carolina Weather Video

Friday weather briefing:

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Changes on the way

A little milder today and tomorrow, wet for Saturday, chilly starting Sunday.

Today's videos:

Carolina Weather Video:




Weather Briefing:

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Changeable weather ahead

Showers at times today, a bit warmer tomorrow & Friday, wet Saturday, then much cooler.

Today's video:

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Wet start to November

Here's today's weather briefing:

And Carolina Weather Video:

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Nice today and Halloween, then rain chances slowly creep in

Carolina Weather Video:
 Weather briefing :

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Brief shower chances today, dry tomorrow and Halloween, rain chances return Sunday.

Today's weather briefing and Carolina Weather Video:

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Unsettled today

Scattered showers and storms today...a couple of the storms could be strong to severe.

Details in today's video:

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Wet and chilly today...scattered showers and storms tomorrow.

All of the details in today's video:

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Warm Friday, but some weather changes ahead...

Today's video:

Also, this is incredible. Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane on record in the NHC's area of responsibility this morning with 200mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 880mb. Amazing. Patricia will unfortunately make landfall in Mexico by tonight.

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Great weather continues... changes ahead....

Today's video:

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Gradual warming trend continues...

Today's edition of the video:

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Slow warning trend on tap....

After a couple of frosty mornings, some milder temps are on the way.

Today's video:

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Much chillier air set to arrive

Details in today's video:

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Shower chances creeping in

Cooler temps, too.

Today's video:

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Warm Thursday, but changes coming...

All of the details in today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video:

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Great weather continues....

However, some late-week rain chances on the way.

Details in today's video:

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Great mid-week weather

Today's video:

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Quieter weather ahead

After an incredibly rough weekend around the Carolinas, much quieter weather is ahead.

Today's video:

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Rain, and lots of it

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to watch the video...lots of graphics to accompany this discussion.

This is a complex forecast still packed with uncertainty. However, a couple of things are high-confidence items:

-Rain is coming. Look for scattered showers today, and then the rain will really settle in tomorrow into Saturday. 

-Multiple inches of rain are on the way. I am going with the idea of 3-7" of rain for much of our area. However, there is the potential for more. One of the more reliable computer models (Euro model) keeps the rain going in southern NC and much of SC even into Monday, and some staggering rain totals are the result down that way. See the European rain total image below.

That is probably an extreme solution, but it is within the realm of possiblity that some locations down that way, if the rain persists into Monday, could see over one foot. 

-Much cooler temps are here. Temperatures will be steady or slowly falling today, and our temps will remain in the 50s all day tomorrow. 

Joaquin

Joaquin is a dangerous Category 3 hurricane and is battering the central Bahamas. This is a devastating scenario there. Again, one of the more reliable computer models (Euro) keeps Joaquin well to the east of the US East coast. The major American model (GFS) has been slowly shifting eastward with each run. However, some models still take Joaquin into the Carolina coast this weekend.

Bottom line here is that the eventual track of Joaquin is incredibly uncertain, and anybody from the South Carolina coast up through the Northeast needs to keep close tabs on the hurricane.

Read more...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Be sure and check it out...lots of graphics to accompany this discussion.

A cold front will slide into the region today, and as it does so, some scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible. It will also be a pretty warm day with many highs topping 80.

Late week flood potential

An extremely complex forecast scenario then begins to unfold around the Southeast tomorrow through the weekend. The forecast will hinge around the interaction of an incoming and strengthening storm system and an influx of tropical moisture associated with Joaquin.

Rain will be likely tomorrow, and it will be significantly cooler with highs in the 60s. The heavy rain potential will then only increase Friday and Saturday as a coastal low strengthens. Rain could even continue through Sunday.

Where the axis of heavy rains sets up will be a big forecast challenge, but there is the potential for widespread 5-10" rains somewhere in the region. Stay tuned!

As for Joaquin itself, I think odds are increasing for an eventual run to near the northeast NC or VA coast late in the week. 

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Tons going on

If you are a fan of the weather, this is your kind of week. All kinds of things going on, and I cover it in today's video:

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Unsettled weather setup this week

Today's video has all of the details:

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Rainy Friday

Then clouds, drizzle, cool temps, and light rain through the weekend.

Today's video:

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Wet pattern settling in

All of the details in today's video:

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Autumn is here!

Today will be the nicest weather day of the week, and then we head into a cool and wet pattern for a few days.

All of the details in today's video:

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Cooler week continues

Clouds try to thin this PM, nice Wednesday, cooler and wetter late week.

Today's video:

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Much cooler weather

Much cooler weather setup with some shower chances back in place as well.

Today's video/ discussion:

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Warm through the weekend, then weather changes next week

All of the details included in today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video:

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Warm afternoons continue through the weekend

Today's discussion and video:

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More fantastic weather

All of the details in today's video:

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Awesome weather!

Loving this cool, autumn-like weather.

A full look at our cool temps this morning, as well as a look ahead, in today's video:

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Unsettled Saturday, then MUCH cooler starting Sunday

Today's video:

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Scattered showers and storms today

A potentially active weather day Saturday, then MUCH cooler air arrives, beginning Saturday night and Sunday.

Details in the all new edition of the Carolina Weather Video:

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Better storm chances arriving

Plus, a big-time push of Autumn air on the way!

Today's video:

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Warm weather continues

But better storm chances lie ahead. Also, it continues to look increasingly likely that a nice shot of cooler, fall-like air will arrive down the road.

Details in today's video:

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Weather changes for the weekend

All of the details in today's video:

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More heat today and tomorrow, but. . .

Significant weather changes for the weekend.

Today's video explains it all:

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Summer weather marches on

But significant weather chances occur this weekend.

Details in today's video:

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Summer weather this week....

Even though we have flipped the calendar to September, summer weather is with us the rest of this work week.

Today's video:

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Return of summer weather this week

Details in today's video:

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Great weather continues locally

And the outlook for Erika has changed due to its southward adjustment yesterday.

Details in today's video:

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More great weather for much of the area, but closely watching Erika

Today's video:

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Great weather for many in the region...

Erika is approaching the NE Caribbean and could threaten the Bahamas and Southeast US down the road if it survives the next 72 hours.

All of this covered in detail in today's video:

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Drier air working in

Plus, Erika in the Atlantic.

Lots covered in today's video:

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Scattered shower and storm chances today, then. . .

Drier air arrives again starting tomorrow.

The tropical also remain fairly active.

Details in today's video:

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One more humid day with some storms before drier air arrives

Tropical Storm Danny continues to most westward through the Atlantic. Danny struggled with drier air yesterday, but it remains a minimal tropical storm. The system could become a minor hurricance, but it will continue to have to fight with dry air at times, and the upper level winds will become more hostile as the system nears the northeast Caribbean

Today's video:

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Scattered storms with locally heavy rain amounts continue

Friday and the weekend look nice, plus Tropical Storm Danny in the Atlantic.

All of this covered in depth in today's video:

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Rain at times with a few storms today

Good chances for some scattered showers and storms continue tomorrow and Thursday.

Also, the tropical wave in the Atlantic continues to organize.

All of this covered in today's video:

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Rain chances on the increase

Plus, watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.

Today's video:

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Dry conditions continue, and drought conditions continue to worsen

Details in today's video:

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Low humidity levels remain in place

Today's video:

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Much drier air settling in.....

A look at what's ahead, plus a wrap-up of yesterday's rain and storms, in today's video:

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Scattered storms today, then much drier air arrives...

Details in today's video:

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Unsettled today and tomorrow, the nice Wednesday through the weekend

Back in the saddle this morning, and here's the new edition of the video!

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Drier air has arrived

Hot, but low humidity, weekend on the way.

Today's video:

I will be away from the weather office next week, so the next edition of the video will be posted August 10.

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Hot with scattered storms today....

Much drier airmass arrives for tomorrow...

Today's video:

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Another warm & humid day with scattered storms, but. . .

Changes are coming.

Details in today's video:

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Hot & humid with scattered, slow-moving showers and storms.

 Weekend looks good.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms return...

Details in today's video:

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Drier air filtering in

Pretty nice weekend on tap. Plus, I take a look at next week's weather and potential tropical mischief late in the week.

Today's video:

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Less hot and humid today....

Some shower and storm chances late tonight and Thursday, then nice weather for the weekend.

Today's video:

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Hot with scattered storms today

Heat then backs down a bit starting tomorrow.

Today's video:

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Hot and steamy Monday weather

A few afternoon storms as well. The heat relaxes a bit later this week.

Today's video:

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Heat and humidity return this weekend

Better storm chances do as well.

Today's video:

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Nice weather to wrap up the work week

Then hotter with better storm chances this weekend.

Today's video:

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Quieter weather for a couple of days

Pretty nice weather is on tap for the next couple of days before hotter and more unsettled conditions return over the weekend.

Details in today's video:

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Active weather today...

A couple more complexes of showers and storms are likely to roll through the region today. Severe weather potential is significant today.

Details in today's video:

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Unsettled pattern for a couple of days

Please see today's video for all of the details. Some rounds of severe weather possible.

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Hot Thursday

Some folks saw some big storms yesterday that produced some wind damage. I take a look at that, plus I detail what's ahead for the weekend and into next week in today's edition of the video:

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A little better storm chance today

Heat marches on into next week.

All of the details in today's video:

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Hot and humid pattern has settled in

Details in today's video:

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Drier and hotter pattern settling in

Heat gradually builds this week. Details in today's video:

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Unsettled conditions...

Scattered showers and storms through the holiday weekend.

Today's video:

Read more...

June Sizzler in Greensboro

This month was hot indeed. Maybe not the hottest as far as the record books go but still impressive. To get a perspective the the average high for the month of June is 84.8 and this past month we averaged a high of 88.6 - that's almost 4 degrees above the normal for June. 

In terms of standard deviations we were just shy of two on the bell curve, 1.98 in fact. That puts us in the five percent range, so very abnormal month for sure. We, however, had two days at the beginning of the month that only broke into the 60's for highs and that killed our chances for hottest month on record for June.

Where we will end up is 13 hottest June. The Hottest June average high temperature on record was 93.5 that was set on June 1914. The hottest temperature we recorded this month was... drum-roll... 97. While we broke many daily records we did not break a monthly record that was set in, no surprise 1914, of 104 degrees Fahrenheit.  We had a streak of 14 days above 90 degrees. Hopefully we don't see that again this summer. 

After a hot month of June, July is forecast to be above normal from our friends at the Climate Prediction Center. In fact the rest of summer is forecast to be above normal but fingers crossed hope we don't break any more records.


Ross Whitley
whitleyross@gmail.com

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Quieter day today...

More active tomorrow and Friday, then pretty decent holiday weekend weather.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms back with us today

Plus, a look at the upcoming holiday weekend weather in today's video:

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Great Monday weather

Fantastic Monday weather, then typical summertime stuff ahead this week.

Today's video:

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Unsettled at times today and tomorrow, but

GREAT weather Sunday and Monday.

Today's video:

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Still hot for a little while, but...

Big changes coming.

Details in today's video:

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Scattered storms today, few storms by Father's Day

But the heat returns in full force next week.

Today's video:

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Heat continues with some afternoon/ evening storms

Details in today's video:

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Heat continues, and even builds, next week...

Today's video:

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Heat marches on....

Tropical Storm Bill makes landfall this morning in Texas. Today's video:

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Hot, hot, then hot some more...

Plus, some potential tropical mischief in the Gulf.

Today's video:

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Heat will become more of a factor with time

Details on what's ahead in our weather in today's video:

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Hot pattern settling in...

All of the details in today's video:

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Lots of warmth on the way

Today's video:

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Lots of summer weather on the way

Details in today's video:

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Warm with a chance of showers/ storms today & tonight.

Heat builds later this week. Today's video:

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Warmer temps back in place

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon, only limited rain chances this weekend, and warm weather for next week.

Details in today's video:

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Another fairly cool day for many today

Warmer this weekend. Big rains in parts of the Carolinas yesterday.

Today's video:

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Cooler for many of us today and tomorrow with showers at times...

Weekend looking pretty good. Plus, a wrap-up of some interesting and unsettled weather around the region yesterday:

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Areas of showers and storms

An unsettled pattern continues for a few days. Today's video:

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Unsettled pattern this week....

Details in today's video:

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More of the same into the weekend....

But changes to a more unsettled setup early next work week.

Details in today's video:

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Warm and humid weather continues

Weekend looking pretty good....unsettled Monday through Wednesday...

Today's video:

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Warm and humid...some scattered showers and storms...

The weekend looks pretty good.

Details in today's video:

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Fantastic weather has arrived!

All of the details on your holiday weekend weather, beach and mountain weather, and a look at next week in today's video:

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Storm system exits today...

Fantastic weather tomorrow through the holiday weekend.

Today's video:

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Lower humidity today...

Shower/ storm chances late tonight & tomorrow, fantastic for Friday & holiday weekend.

Today's video:

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Warm and humid with a few showers/ storms today...

Low humidity tomorrow, some rain chances Thursday, then a great weekend. Details in today's video:

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Warm and humid with scattered storms today...

Drier air on the way for mid-week, and a look ahead to next weekend and beyond in today's video:

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Getting warmer and muggier...

All of the details in today's video:

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Great Thursday weather...

Humidity levels creep up tomorrow into the weekend.... cold front Monday-Tuesday.

Today's video:

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Great weather the next several days...

Details in today's video:

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One more summer-like day...

Pleasant airmass tomorrow through Friday...

Today's video:

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Remnants of Ana headed back out to sea...

Summer-like today and tomorrow.... great Wednesday and Thursday...

Today's video:

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Ana off the South Carolina coast...

Details on what impacts the system will have in today's video:

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Coastal low taking shape....

Still warm and dry for most of the piedmont today, but a coastal low is playing an increasing role in the Carolinas' weather.

Details in today's video:

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Warm weather again today...

Coastal low could play a part in our weekend weather.

Today's video:

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Warmth marches on...

Coastal low looks to have little impact late this week.

Today's video:

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Warm weather to start the work week...

Watching a coastal low later in the week. Details in today's video:

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Scattered showers - isolated storms today

Scattered showers/ isolated storms today, great weekend, building warmth next week.

Here's today's video:

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Some rain in parts of the region today

Great weekend still on the way, and a warm week next week.

Today's video:

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Great Tuesday Weather

Another great day today; mid-week weather looking far less wet; fantastic weekend ahead.

Today's video:

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Great today and tomorrow...

Then we get some rain Wednesday lingering into Thursday. Clearing and drying out Friday, then fantastic for the weekend.

Today's video:

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Great Friday weather, cooler with some rain Saturday...

All of our upcoming weather details included in today's video:

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Sunny and cooler today...

A little patchy frost possible tonight....cool with some weekend rain....

Details in today's video:

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Breezy today with scattered late PM showers...

Dry tomorrow and Friday; some weekend showers. Today's video:

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Much cooler and quieter weather...

Plus, a wrap-up of our previous system in today's video:

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Wedge today, milder tomorrow...

Saturday looks pretty nice, and then wet Sunday and Sunday night.

Details in today's video:

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Wedge in place

Rainy, cool Wednesday; cool and cloudy Thursday; much warmer Friday & Saturday; Wet Sunday. Today's video:

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Shower chances continue at times...

Rather complex forecast over the next several days. Details in today's video:

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Lots of rain chances this week...

After picture-perfect weekend weather, lots of rain chances are in my forecast this week. Details in today's video:

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Warm and unsettled today and tomorrow; weekend looks great

Today's video:

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Quite warm today

A few showers and storms possible today and tomorrow...better storm chances later Friday... weekend looks great.

Today's video:

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Humid setup now in place

That means scattered shower and storm chances until a front moves through Friday night.

Details in today's video:

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An overall unsettled work week ahead

Today's video:

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Nice, but cool, Easter weekend...

Warm & breezy today, a few showers & storms with a cold front, then sunny and cool for Easter weekend.

Today's video:

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Weather changes slowly taking place

Chilly high pressure then builds in for Easter weekend. Today's video:

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Nice start to April...

Cold front moves through Friday night... most of Easter weekend looking nice.

Details in today's video:

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Great weather to end March and begin April

Plus a look at the Easter weekend forecast in today's video:

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Morning showers exit, then nice for a few days...

A look at Easter weekend ahead as well...

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Freeze on the way this weekend...

Rain this morning slowly departs.... nice but chilly weekend on the way....

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Warm and breezy this PM

Rain arrives again later tonight, then dry and cooler this weekend. Freeze still on the way as well. Today's video:

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Scattered showers at times today into Friday

Weekend dry but fairly chilly with a freeze likely Sunday morning. Details in the video:

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Nice today, but shower chances ahead

Plus, the weekend is looking nice, albeit chilly. Today's video:

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Cooler today...

Some showers mid-week, then late-week question marks. Today's video:

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Nice Saturday, then rain chances creep back in...

Details in today's video:

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Rain settling in today.... tricky forecast early next week...

Details in today's video:

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Cooler temps back in place

And rain set to arrive tomorrow. Details in today's video:

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Warm to start the work week... big changes later this week...

Details in today's video:

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Rain today/ tonight....

Saturday's forecast looking a bit better... Sunday through mid-week look fantastic.

Details in today's video:

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Nice today, wet tomorrow, then improvement through the weekend...

Details in today's video:

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Better shower chances today

Then cooler to wrap up the week with rain chances building in again. Drier, brighter weather then begins to arrive Sunday. Details in the video:

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Cloudy & mild today and tomorrow...

Rain at times this week, much chillier Thursday and Friday.... all covered in today's video:

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Cloudy, damp week ahead...

After absolutely perfect weekend weather, a much different weather setup is in place this week. All of the details in today's video:

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Cold today, but a great weekend on tap...

Details on that, plus what might be a relatively cloudy, damp pattern for next week in today's video:

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Falling temps; rain ends as a wintry mix for some...

Full details in today's video:

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Wild weather...

After a cool, damp day yesterday with a wedge in place, we will have spring-like warmth this afternoon followed by a wintry mix for some later tomorrow. This system will also be a big winter storm for many in the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic.

I detail all of this in today's video:

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Up and down we go...

The big temperature roller coaster continues:

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Lots of temp swings this week

...And a little wintry precip possible for some as well. Details in today's video:

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Winter storm wrap-up

The good, the bad, and the ugly of the winter storm forecast:



If you watched my video yesterday morning, I went into how the forecast was going to be very tricky for eastern sides of the Charlotte metro up into southern parts of the RDU metro. This was due to a pronounced layer of warm air aloft causing mixing of precip types.

Well, that warm nose aloft was even more pronounced and more north than expected, and that really sullied my snow amount forecast around the Charlotte area and Upstate. Now for the Triad area, the forecast panned out very nicely with many folks in many counties reporting 6-8". So that area did fine. The problem was southern NC and Upstate SC.

Remember those RPM (Futurecast) runs that looked somewhat absurd with the rain/ snow line so far north? Yeah, it was pretty darn accurate in retrospect. It won the model day. For instance, looking at sounding data yesterday, the GFS never got Charlotte out of a snow sounding. The NAM, while much more pronounced with the warm nose, kept CLT at a snow sounding deep into the night, and even then, it was close to isothermal snow soundings. There was nothing on those models that indicated sleet and rain taking over so early in the evening. Some of the high-res short-term models were indicting warming aloft, but it was difficult to take them too seriously while there were spitting out 20" snow products.

The first warning shots to me were fired when a buddy of mine near Anderson, SC let me know he was in a sleet/ snow/ rain war zone early in the evening. I knew we were in trouble then.

So what exactly went wrong with that aspect of the forecast? Again, I thought the area just east of CLT and down into northern SC was going to be trouble. But I thought most of CLT, and certainly areas north and west of Charlotte, would stay primarily snow. They did not, until you went north of the whole metro. The warm nose aloft won out, and a whole lot of the precipitation fell as sleet and rain, especially CLT and points south and east.

The problem had little to nothing to do with ground temps or surface temps. Look at how quickly snow stacked up while precip remained all snow, and look how quickly snow accumulated Tuesday morning with ground temps warmer than last night.

There was always going to be a tight gradient with this system...it just set up further north than expected. Lesson learned. Never, ever, underestimate the warm nose.

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Winter Storm Headed In Tonight

Please take time to watch today's video... it will answer a lot of your questions.

A challenging winter storm forecast this morning.... an area of low pressure will take a pretty classic Carolina snowstorm track today and tonight....near the FL Panhandle this evening to near the Carolina coast tomorrow morning. This will spread a shield of snow from NE Texas this morning, across north MS, north AL, TN, and then into parts of the Carolinas this evening and tonight.

As is typically the case in this type of event, there will be a sharp rain-snow line, and areas near and just north of the rain/snow line will likely have the heaviest rates of snow and highest snow totals. There are indications on some of the modeling of slightly warmer air aloft working in from eastern sections of the Charlotte viewing area up toward southern parts of the Triangle viewing area, and I show that in today's video.

There are also indications of mesoscale banding with some heavy rates of snow possible just north of that rain/snow line, so a very tight gradient of snow totals looks likely. If this small-scale banding set up, some areas will likely exceed the snow totals on the map below. This is most likely in the pink shaded area.

Here are my accumulation thoughts as of now, subject to adjustment.

Regionally.... very tricky for Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, and Sandhills areas especially.

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Accumulating snow ahead?

I encourage you to watch today's video for all of the graphics that go along with this morning's discussion:



A chilly and active weather pattern is in place this week across the Southeast. One pretty weak disturbance will move in tomorrow morning and bring the chance of some flurries or a little light snow to some areas late tonight into tomorrow morning. However, this system looks rather deprived of significant precipitation.

A much more significant system will then roll into the region by Wednesday night. While some computer modeling has been indicating a suppressed solution where more of the precipitation remains south of a large portion of NC, I do not feel this is correct. At this point, I favor a solution of a surface low tracking from near the FL Panhandle to just off the Carolina coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Assuming that idea is correct, a strip of accumulating snow would occur from northern MS and AL up through north GA, Upstate and parts of northern SC and then much of NC.

It all hinges in this:

This is a snapshot from the 0z European model. If that energy of the Deep South remains more tightly bundled, like the European, UKMET, NAVGEM, NAM, and many Euro and GFS ensemble members show, the idea I have laid out above has merit.

What can go wrong? First of all, there is only so far NW this can trend this time around due to the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast, so some additional NW ticks are possible, but I don't think this winds up a big rainstorm for western and central NC. Areas in northern SC though...it could get trickier.

If they energy is more strung out, then a weaker, further south solution is possible. That is definitely a possibility, but I don't think it's a likelihood at this point.

In fact, history tells me that if anything, we might see that upper level energy trend stronger as the models begin to 'see' it better. But we will see.

Things often change a lot with these systems, but that's the way I see it as of now.

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Changes this weekend; cold and unsettled next week...

Today's video:

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Brutal, record-breaking cold continues

Plus some wintry precip for some Saturday and more fun and games possible next week.

Lots of ground covered in today's video:

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Dangerously cold air

If you know me and how I operate, you know that I do not over-hype things like you might sometimes see elsewhere. Hyperbole and unnecessarily hype does no one any good in the long run.

Having said that, I want to hit home that this incoming shot of cold air is something this part of the country does not see very often. In fact, it has been quite a few years since we saw a blast of cold air of this significance. Many in NC will have 67-72 hours below freezing. That in an of itself, while impressive, is not a huge deal.

The big deal is just how cold it will be. Many spots will drop into the single digits tonight, especially near and north of I-40. Winds will be an issue, and most of the region will experience wind chill values below zero tonight through tomorrow morning.

HIGHS tomorrow will likely fail to reach 20 in many Triad and Triangle locations and will likely struggle to the low to mid 20s around Charlotte. Winds will continue to pump wind chill values at least into the single digits and possibly below 0 at times through the day.

The arctic high pressure then settles overhead tomorrow night into Friday morning, and temps will be even colder than tonight. Foothill and piedmont NC spots will likely see lows between 0 and 9 degrees in many areas, and I fully expect some of the traditionally-colder spots to dip below 0. Highs will top out in the 20s Friday.

Folks, this is serious cold. Pipe-bursting cold. Please check on anybody you know that might not have adequate heating. Pets need to be inside. Your cars need to have adequate anti-freeze. Take precautions.

For more on all of this, plus our upcoming wintry weather chances, please see the video embedded in post below this one.

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Dangerous cold inbound

Today's video: Biggest deal is the coldest air in years arrive, but more wintry precip to discuss too. Make sure you watch til the end of the video for a detailed look at temps:

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Winter storm wrap-up, plus...

An incredible blast of arctic air headed our way as well as more potential wintry precip:

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Incoming winter storm for parts of the region....

Brutally cold air later this week...

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Arctic air and potential wintry weather...

All of my thoughts in today's video:

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Brutal arctic air floods in, then potential wintry weather next week...

Today's video:

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Arctic air headed our way...

In 2 waves... plus a look at potential systems next week.

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Great weekend on tap... colder pattern down the road...

Details in today's video:

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Cold and blustery today.... weekend looks great!

All of the details, plus a look at the long-range, in today's video:

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System tonight, cold finish to work week....

Milder this weekend, and some long-range thoughts, all covered in today's video:

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Cool and quiet... suppressed system tomorrow night-Thursday...

Details in today's video:

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Windy with falling temps today... watching Wed. night-Thursday...

All of the details covered in today's video:

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Breezy Friday... system arrives Sunday night...

Plus, another potential system mid-week next week. All covered in today's video...

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Quiet and cool until our Sunday system arrives...

All of the details in today's video:

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Mountain snow and piedmont rain showers today...

Plus, a major Northeast winter storm, and I am keeping an eye on next week. Lots of ground covered in today's video:

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System arriving, plus lots of longer-range thoughts...

Today's video:

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Big system arrives tomorrow

We will only have some high clouds overhead at times today with highs in the 50s. Lows then drop to near freezing tomorrow.

Our next storm system continues to organize and move our way, and rain will spread into the region as our Friday unfolds. Anybody is fair game to see some sleet pellets or snow flakes as the precip initially arrives, but across the piedmont, the temperatures aloft will quickly warm above freezing once saturation occurs throughout the atmospheric column, leading to a chilly and soaking rain event. 

Up in the mountains and the higher elevations of the northern foothills, wintry precip will attempt to hold on for the majority of the event, and that is where significant accumulations of wintry precipitation should remain confined.

Precip exits the region Saturday, and Sunday looks cool and dry. The clipper system Monday looks rather unimpressive at this point. 

Please see the video for tons of details:

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Quiet today... big system Friday-Saturday...

Our Friday-Saturday system could bring varying types of precip depending on where you are around the region. Full details in today's video:

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Big system late Friday into Saturday AM...

Tons of information in today's video:

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Sunshine returns!

Plus, in the video I spend a lot of time looking at a potential system late next week as well as the long range...

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A look ahead...

Brighter weather on the way for Friday and Saturday, and a pattern more favorable for winter weather chances in the southeast could be on the way. Details in the video:

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Wintry mix on the way tonight around the region

Please see the video for all of the details:

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Wet Monday... a little icing possible tomorrow night into Wednesday AM...

All of the details in today's video:

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Unsettled pattern ahead next week....

Lots to talk about in today's edition of the video.... give it a look!

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In the grips of true arctic air...

All of the details, plus a look ahead to a cold, unsettled pattern early next week:

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True arctic air arrives tomorrow...

Enjoy today....a big-time blast of true arctic air arrives tomorrow.

Our high temps in many locations in the region will occur tomorrow morning, then temperatures begin to plunge through the afternoon as stiff NW winds usher in the frigid air. Lows around the foothills and the piedmont will drop into the 8-14 degree range for many by Thursday morning, and highs will be in the 20s for many Thursday afternoon.

Winds will remain an issue later tomorrow into Thursday. In fact, wind chill values will likely dip below zero in many piedmont spots early Thursday morning, and the mountains could see wind chills dip below -15 or -20 for a period of time.

I continue to keep an eye on a potential storm system Sunday and Monday. There are huge differences between the various computer models regarding the timing of this, but I think the cold air damming areas of at least NC, and possibly SC, need to keep on the lookout for the potential for at least a little wintry weather being in involved. We will see. Might wind up being a chilly rain for many, but the potential is there for something of the wintry variety as well.

Please see the video for all of the details:

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True arctic air arrives Wednesday... watching Sunday-Monday too...

Lots to talk about in today's video:

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BIG blast of arctic air by mid-week next week...

Rain at times this weekend, then a HUGE blast of big-time arctic air next week. Lots covered in today's video:

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