Watching the weekend...

>> Thursday, February 26, 2009



Give today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video a look above....lots of good stuff regarding this weekend.

Interesting stuff. Most of the modeling from overnight has trended in a positive direction for snow lovers in the Carolinas. The models are almost unanimous in showing a closed 500mb low move through Georgia into South Carolina Sunday and Sunday night.

It is FAR too early for any confidence in specifics, but it is encouraging to see most of the modeling at least in the same neighborhood.

Here is my general thinking as of now....

Cold front approaches tomorrow and brings a chance of rain showers tomorrow afternoon and night. That front will stall out somewhere close by, and as a powerful upper level low approaches, another surface low will develop in the Deep South Saturday.

I still like the odds of a soaking rain in the Piedmont Saturday and Saturday night, and then, a period of snow certainly looks possible later Sunday, Sunday night, and maybe into Monday.

Here is the standard disclaimer....this is a complex system, and lots could change over the next 72 hours. However, there is definitely a chance of accumulating snow Sunday into Monday. Will it verify....it is just a little too soon for any real confidence.

Stay tuned....

10 comments:

jtomlinweather 6:45 AM  

YEAH!!!!!!!!!! Maybe my pessimistic attitude helped change things. I am hoping that this storm will evolve into an event. There was a major difference in the 18z and 6z runs of the GFS. Hopefully this will work out and shake us from this pattern!!!!!!!!!!

Burgertime 8:11 AM  

All we can do is close our eyes and hope it verifies!

Did you catch last nights episode of LOST? WOW!!!!

Matthew East 8:28 AM  

Indeed....hoping for the best.

Working the morning shift, all of my TV watching happens during the early evening. So, I watch almost every one of my shows the next night. So, tonight is Lost night for us! Very excited! Don't say anything!

Apache 12:26 PM  

Very informative, a great explanation that everyone can understand of the different models. Please do more of these when the weather warrants!
Thank you!

Anonymous 1:05 PM  

Matt,
I come back from vacation and look what's being discussed!!! Are we doing this again?!? Does it peak my interest? Yes. Am I going to even remotely expect it to snow on Sunday? Heck no! I've done this dance before and my legs are tired.

I'll sit this one out....as the, I don't know....the closed low doesn't close, the cold air doesn't catch up to the moisture, the northern stream dominates and the low doesn't form, the low forms too far near the coast, etc....everything that causes us not to not get snow seems to happen. I'm focusing on hitting the beach in the next few months. In any event Matt, thanks for the detailed info. Interesting stuff of all what's involved in the scenarios.

Brad

Anonymous 2:12 PM  

Do you think the 12Z ECM is right with the further south ULL track?

Anonymous 3:36 PM  

i was reading jeffs blog and it said 6 to 10 inches...POSSIBLE.could that really happen?

Anonymous 5:34 PM  

From the definition of "possible", you answered your own question. :)

Anonymous 6:54 PM  

well ive heard anywhere between flurries and inches of snow on sunday.as of this point which is more likely?

Matthew East 7:09 PM  

Thanks Apache....I do these videos each weekday morning.

All options are on the table at this point, ranging from no accumulation of snow to a very significant snow event. I am not ready to make a specific forecast as of yet.

The southern trend in the ULL track on the modeling today is a bit disconcerting, but I don't think it can go much farther southward than what has been shown today. However, it is a real possibility that Georgia and SC could see more snow than NC....too soon to tell though.

I will have a new video posted bright and early tomorrow morning.

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