Ahhh....

>> Saturday, February 28, 2009

I greatly appreciate everyone checking in to the blog here. Thanks so much for stopping by!

This is the point in every winter weather forecast I do that all of the doubts and second guessing starts taking place in my head. I keep seeing things that could potentially go wrong with the forecast. However, those that have been following me on the blog for any length of time know I am not a flip-flopper. Once I come up with a forecast idea, I will ride that idea until it is obvious I must change.

Don't get me wrong, there is not any real reason to want to change the ideas I have put out there in terms of accumulations. It is just as time goes on, I continue to imagine this scenario and that scenario that could put the forecast down the tubes.

The only thing a little concerning to me is that some modeling is really showing a lull in the action for a while tomorrow evening after the profile gets cold enough for all snow. But more precip fills back in later, and it is probably that next batch that will determine most of our snow totals.

But, I will not change anything this evening at all. Anyone in the Piedmont could see 3-7" of snow. And I do feel there will be a strip of heavier totals where up to 6-10" could fall. I still feel the most likely location for that strip is from the Charlotte metro area up to around the Triad.

All of this is a long-winded way to say I am not going to make any changes to my accumulation ideas. I will keep looking at the data tonight, and if any changes need to be made, they will be made tomorrow.

We are really now to the point of nowcasting. It is time to put most of the model charts away (with the exception of the skilled short range models) and watch the weather.....satellite, radar, observations, etc.

So far, the system is over-performing back in Arkansas and Tennessee. We will see if that has any implications downstream.

I am going to try and spend a couple of hours away from the computer here this evening....but if I see anything earth-shattering, I will share it late this evening.

7 comments:

Anonymous 7:10 PM  

Hi Matt i thought that with the system is over-performing back in Arkansas and Tennessee i thought that would be great news for us in Charlotte would that not mean that this system could be much stronger then is forecast and in this case the accumulations would be much higher so instead of talking 3-7 would be talking 10-16 in charlotte right??

Zeb 8:45 PM  

Hey Matt!

Do you have any thoughts on the "dry slot" that may, but hopefully won't, set up tomorrow evening?

Also, I've heard that the track has shifted a little bit NW now. What are your thoughts on that? Thanks!

Zeb

Beverly 8:54 PM  

Thanks so much for the info. It is so cool to be in the loop... hearing what you guys are thinking while you're hashing these events out.

Matthew East 9:41 PM  

Definitely over-performing back in the mid-south. Might not wind up meaning much here, but it is not a bad sign.

I think the general track ideas have not changed much at all. The dry slot issues would likely impact central NC....Triangle region.

Glad you enjoy it Beverly!

Time for some sleep!

Anonymous 10:07 PM  

The 0z NAM looks really good!!!

Anonymous 10:12 PM  

Does Chapel Hill look like it might dodge the dry zone?

Thanks!
Ben

Anonymous 11:46 PM  

After all, I may not have to go to W. Va to see snow? As I was pumping gas on my car late this evening, I can feel the winds picking up and temps getting cold. Maybe this storm might rival the storm we had late February, 2004 after all?

TK

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