Evaluating Tomorrow....

Some impressive parameters are being forecast by modeling to be in place around here tomorrow afternoon and early evening. For those of you that are meteorologically inclined, here are some values for Charlotte based off of the 6z NAM valid at 4pm tomorrow afternoon:

CAPE: 1471
Helicity: 262
EHI: 2.41
BRN: 22.99
LI: -4.5
TT: 53
K Index: 35
SWEAT: 466

Those are some pretty impressive numbers. Looking at things, the only real component that is a bit lacking is the speed of the winds up in the atmosphere. There will be fairly strong, but not as much as in some classic severe weather outbreaks.

So, I expect scattered showers and storms to develop tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Some of the storms will probably become severe, and all modes of severe weather look possible...possibly tornadoes, wind, and hail. Then, a strong line of storms will probably move through overnight tomorrow night, and again, some storms could be severe.

So, severe weather is not at all a given, but I do think it is a strong possibility. If we see any sunshine tomorrow morning, then that will increase the chances for severe weather. As is always the case, the severe weather threat will depend on various small scale feature that will not be apparent until tomorrow. So we will continue to watch and evaluate.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the latest information. And, I will update the blog with my thoughts as I can and as it necessary.

I will also quickly point out that is still looks rather active for Mother's Day, but we will dive into that one after this first system passes.

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Events Coming Up....

Above is a new edition of my weather video.

There are a couple of events on the horizon in our weather that bear close watching. First of all, as I am seeing things this morning, the synoptic scale setup looks pretty favorable for a chance of severe weather around here late Thursday and especially Thursday night. A weakening 500mb trough will swing just to our north as an area of low pressure approaches from the Tennessee Valley. Severe weather will be a possibility over parts of the Deep South Thursday and then spread into the Carolinas Thursday night. That will be one to keep an eye on.

Secondly, another strong system looks to drop through here Sunday. The details are a bit more skecthy with that one, but overall, I do think Sunday bears watching for severe weather chances as well.

As for today, fantastic weather....get out and enjoy. And, get out and vote!

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A few PM storms....

The ingredients are there for some shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon...especially east of I-77. The storms will likely be widely scattered, but the ones that do develop could pack a punch with some gusty winds and large hail. Some vivid lightning would also be possible.

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Tragedy in Myanmar

Just an unimaginable tragedy in Myanmar....possibly over 4,000 people killed. Beyond tragic.....

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Tornado follow-up

Looks like the Earle, Arkansas tornado was an EF 3.....with a width up to 350 yards!

And here is an update on some of the other tragic Arkansas tornadoes.

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Lower Mississippi Valley Severe Weather

Tragic severe weather continues to unfold in parts of Arkansas as I type this. So far, seven fatalities have been reported, and I still see 3 separate tornado warnings in effect.

Click here to watch some live streams from storm chasers in the area.

We will see the chance for some showers and storms late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. I don't anticipate a severe weather outbreak, but one or two strong to severe storms are possible.

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