Ice storm Sunday???

Working the evening shift for the Triad market today. Before I delve into our next wintry weather threat, I want to mention something I have failed to mention before now. We will see a big time blast of arctic air surge into our area by the end of the work week. The exact timing is still a question mark, but by Thursday or Friday, we will be feeling some of the coldest air we have felt in quite some time. At this point, I am thinking highs in the 20s and lows way down in the teens....cold stuff.

Now, on to our Sunday event. I will say right off of the bat....this is a very tough forecast at this juncture. This is the time when, in my opinion, the short range models are still struglling to resolve details and the medium range models don't give you the resolution you need for events like this. So, my confidence is rather low.

But with that said, here are my thoughts as of now. The biggest impacts (comparing the Charlotte, Triangle, and Triad regions) from this system will likely be around the Triad region. I expect precip to roll in Sunday afternoon. It looks like the precip will begin as a period of sleet followed rather quickly by a changeover to freezing rain.

Now, it appears at this point that the freezing rain will not last terribly long in the Charlotte region before changing to rain. But, I am nervous about this because we all know models typically underestimate CAD in the Carolinas. But, my main reason behind this thinking is that the MM5, normally pretty reliable in these situations, has been gradually trending warmer for this event with its past couple of runs. If that trend reverses overnight, it is a warning sign for sure. Plus, the NAM has a forecast of a temp of 32 and dp of 14 in CLT Sunday morning....that is definitely concerning. So, while I am going with the idea of a rather quick change to rain for the CLT area as of now, that could definitely change.

For the Triad, a different story. The 12z GFS BUFKIT data, taken literally, spits out about 1/3" of ice. And, I think the GFS is probably not handling the wedge correctly. I think a few hours of sleet are likely around the Triad, and then a rather extended period of freezing rain. How long temps stay below freezing into Sunday night in this region remains to be seen. At this point, I think the probability is pretty high for ice accumulation in the Triad region, and there is a pretty good chance some significant ice accumulation will occur somewhere in this region.

So, those are my thoughts as of now. The situation should become much clearer as we go through the next 24 hours. I will post more blog updates as time allows.