Humid with showers and storms...

>> Friday, August 05, 2011



Due to clouds, showers, and storms, the heat will take a break for the next couple of days. Piedmont highs today will range from the mid to upper 80s around the Triad to at most the lower 90s for the CLT and RDU areas. We will see scattered showers and storms today and tonight.

Tomorrow looks unsettled with a good coverage of rain and storms at times. Highs will likely be similar tomorrow to what we will see today.

The heat will spike briefly again Monday with some mid to upper 90s, but with time next week, at least some subtle troughing will try to settle into the eastern US. The result will be a gradually decrease in temps as the week unfolds, especially late-week.

Emily...

Hispaniola completely tore Emily apart, and it is now a remnant low. It might re-organize a bit, but it looks to stay out to sea and not be a big problem.

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Muggier today...better storm chances ahead...Emily latest...

>> Thursday, August 04, 2011



It is a warmer and muggier morning out there today compared to recent mornings, and it will be a muggier day overall for our Thursday. It will still be fairly hot with most highs in the mid 90s, and when you factor in the humidity, afternoon heat index values will exceed 100 degrees at times. A few isolated storms are also possible this afternoon and tonight.




A disturbance will move through the region tomorrow and Saturday, and in response to that, a good number of scattered showers and storms should develop. Due to more clouds and storms, highs tomorrow and Saturday will probably be held a little shy of 90 in most spots.




The heat will build again Sunday and Monday with highs surging well up through the 90s again.




Emily...




Tropical Storm Emily is centered close to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Big-time flooding problems will continue in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.




Emily will lift northwest into the Bahamas later tomorrow and then likely bend to the north and northeast a couple hundred miles off of the Carolina coast and out to see. Probably no huge impacts on the coast in terms of flooding rain or wind, but I do think there will be some significantly increased surf over the weekend into Monday or so.




If you have a beach trip planned this weekend, I personally would not say you need to cancel your plans. However, you do need to keep up with the latest information on Emily in the event some changes occur with the forecast, which is certainly possible.

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Muggier today...better storm chances ahead...Emily latest...

It is a warmer and muggier morning out there today compared to recent mornings, and it will be a muggier day overall for our Thursday. It will still be fairly hot with most highs in the mid 90s, and when you factor in the humidity, afternoon heat index values will exceed 100 degrees at times. A few isolated storms are also possible this afternoon and tonight.


A disturbance will move through the region tomorrow and Saturday, and in response to that, a good number of scattered showers and storms should develop. Due to more clouds and storms, highs tomorrow and Saturday will probably be held a little shy of 90 in most spots.


The heat will build again Sunday and Monday with highs surging well up through the 90s again.


Emily...


Tropical Storm Emily is centered close to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Big-time flooding problems will continue in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.


Emily will lift northwest into the Bahamas later tomorrow and then likely bend to the north and northeast a couple hundred miles off of the Carolina coast and out to see. Probably no huge impacts on the coast in terms of flooding rain or wind, but I do think there will be some significantly increased surf over the weekend into Monday or so.


If you have a beach trip planned this weekend, I personally would not say you need to cancel your plans. However, you do need to keep up with the latest information on Emily in the event some changes occur with the forecast, which is certainly possible.

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Near record heat today...Emily heads for Hispaniola

>> Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Some highs from yesterday:

Fayetteville:101
Burlington: 99
Gastonia: 98
Wilmington: 98
RDU: 97
Charlotte: 96
Greensboro: 94

Here is today's edition of the video...I talk about a day today of near-record warmth, some storm chances ahead, signs of a big pattern change next week, and where Emily is headed.


A hot day is on tap again today, and afternoon highs will warm to near record levels. Most areas in the Piedmont will top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Again today, the humidity will stay in check, so heat index values will remain close to the actual temps.



We should remain dry today, but this evening and tonight could feature a few showers or storms as a cold front approaches from the north. That front will then stall out close to our area, giving us the chance of a couple of storms tomorrow and then better storm chances Friday into the weekend.



Highs Friday into the weekend will likely be held in check somewhat due to more clouds and storms....probably lower 90s.



Don't look now, but I see signs next week of a wholesale pattern change. If this change occurs, the significant heat will shift into the western US with some 'cooler' weather for the eastern part of the country settling in. We shall see.



Emily...



Tropical Storm Emily is passing south of Puerto Rico this morning and will head over Hispaniola tonight. From there, Emily will head into the Bahamas and then make a pretty close pass to the Florida and Carolina coasts. Whether or not Emily will make an actual US landfall is still uncertain. The most likely scenario is that the center stays a little offshore, but that can't be guaranteed.



Either way, I doubt Emily can become overly intense, so this is probably one of those systems where we actually want to see it attempt to make a landfall....coastal parts of the region need all of the rain they can get.

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Dry, hot conditions...Emily in the Caribbean

>> Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Here is today's edition of the video...I cover the heat, upcoming storm chances, and Emily.



Highs warmed well into the 90s across the region yesterday, and I anticipate highs today being a little hotter in most spots. Look for mid to some upper 90s this afternoon, then upper 90sto some lower 100s tomorrow afternoon. Humidity levels will remain low.

A few storms are possible with a disturbance overnight tomorrow night, and then we are back to daily scattered storm chances Thursday through the weekend.

Emily...

We finally got our tropical wave classified yesterday evening, and it was classified as a tropical storm.

See the video for lots of talk about Emily. In short, I think the short-term chances of significant strengthening are small for several reasons. Emily could very well make an eventual US landfall, and anybody from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Carolina Atlantic coast needs to monitor the system's progress.

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Lower humidity this afternoon....heat builds again through mid-week

>> Monday, August 01, 2011

Here's today's edition of the video...I talk about this week's weather and our developing tropical system, which might make a run at the US.



After the region had a good coverage of scattered showers and storms over the weekend, we now head back into a drier pattern over the next few days. It will be noticeably less humid this afternoon, and most highs will be in the lower 90s.

The heat will build tomorrow and Wednesday...look for mid 90s tomorrow and upper 90s to near 100 Wednesday.

A few storms are possible Thursday and Friday afternoon with better storm chances arriving over the weekend.

Tropics...

It sure looks like our next classified tropical system is forming east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. A recon plane will be in the system later this morning to see whether or not a closed low level circulation has indeed formed.

This one bears watching. The system will head through the northern Caribbean and will likely head into general direction of the Bahamas. I do note that some modeling has shifted westward and actually takes the system into the eastern Gulf. At any rate, Emily-to-be could wind up threatening the US, and we will watch it closely.

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Scattered storms today...Emily will be born soon...

>> Sunday, July 31, 2011

Saturday was another scorcher around the region...some select highs.....

Fayetteville: 105
Charlotte: 101
Wilmington: 101
Clemson: 101
Burlington: 100
RDU: 100
Greensboro: 96
Hatteras: 94

Today, the scenario is different. Look for a lot more clouds, lots of scattered shower and storm opportunities, and highs in the low 90s at most in many places. As you get down into South Carolina, it will get hotter.

Tropics...

Invest 91L will likely get classified today as a tropical depression. This is the system out in the Atlantic I have been discussing with you. This one could become a significant tropical system by the time it reaches the NE Caribbean Islands.

From there, it will likely head in the general direction of the Bahamas as it begins to bend to the north.

It is a bit too early for this yet....since we don't have classified system yet. However, I doubt this gets into the Gulf of Mexico. If it does threaten the US, it would be the East Coast. But this could wind up being a recurving storm that doesn't threaten the US. We will see.

Here is the Canadian position at 144 hours....

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