Saturday morning...

>> Saturday, January 08, 2011

Some pretty big model fluctuations and differences continue in terms of amounts of precipitation with our approaching storm system. The 0z run of the GFS put out close to an inch of liquid equivalent precip near and just south and east of Charlotte while the 0z Euro and NAM were much, much less. The 6z GFS came in with about a quarter inch less than the 0z run. The 0z and 6z NAM held the 0.5" QPF line just south of Charlotte. (I just use Charlotte as a good singular point to reference the model differences.)

Winter storm watches are up for a lot of real estate. In the image below, all of the white counties from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas are under winter storm watches.
My overall ideas have not changed. This should be a big winter storm for a good chunk of AR, MS, north AL, north Georgia, southern TN, and South Carolina. I feel like this will be a pretty significant event for at least southern NC, but the question marks get larger the farther north you go in NC due to uncertainty with precip amounts.

Below are the Day 2 and Day 3 winter weather maps issued this morning from the HPC.

Day 2
Day 3

13 comments:

Bettina 7:44 AM  

Matt, haven't checked in here in awhile. Are you still posting videos. I see them referenced but can't find 'em. Enjoy them very much.

Bettina 7:50 AM  

never mind. found it. :) thanks.

Matthew East 8:45 AM  

Haha. Glad you found it. Videos are normally posted by 6am each weekday morning right here on the site.

Anonymous 9:24 AM  

Thanks for the Saturday update, Matt! I know you're very careful about not putting out accumulation numbers until things are clear - but can you give some "taken literally" numbers from the model? What does .5" or 1" QPF translate into in this case? Not a forecast, but more just translating the model for those of us who are not quite as savvy in such things.

One more question - how much of a concern is a major ice event?

Thanks for everything you do!

Matthew East 9:38 AM  

I still have concerns about significant icing from the midlands of SC down into central GA, AL, and maybe MS.

Taken literally, the 0z GFS was 8"or so of snow for CLT with a glazing of ice on top. The .5" total would habe been 4-5" ending as a little glaze.

Latest NAM is coming in now...still a battle of dry air over NC and the advancing precip shield from the SW.

Anonymous 11:09 AM  

Matt i think the model aint handling this thing to well and that they just doing the normal flip flopping because i think the precip stuff is under done remember what the model did for the christmas storm they shifted east and than everyone thought oh well nothing coming now but 18-24 hours beofre the actual storm came they went back to their regular solution.....CHris

Anonymous 3:44 PM  

This really doesnt make no sense to me how the precip just gonna let up after being heavier to the south as it moves north i beleive the models are to weak with the storm off the coast especially the NAM and GFS and for that matter teh Canadian i mean what do you think MAtt? Chris

Matthew East 6:16 PM  

Chris. This is a tough call. The precip makes sense to some extent due of very dry air over NC. But the drying might be overdone.

Anonymous 6:42 PM  

Matt, why is there no Winter Storm Watch over Winston Salem yet?

Chuck

Anonymous 6:49 PM  

This looks like it's just another 3 inch system for Charlotte, more of the same. Trend has not been our friend. Pretty bummed.

Brad

Anonymous 7:21 PM  

Matt, please tell me this will not be an all rain event for eastern NC. What are your thoughts on winter weather for ENC.
~Brandon

Matthew East 9:07 PM  

Brandon....many areas in eastern NC should have some wintry precip involved, but it gets trickier the further east you go with this one.

Anonymous 9:21 PM  

Thanks Matt. I'm actually beginning to wonder though if the strong Northwest flow will push the low a little more offshore. We will see.
~Brandon

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