Heat marching on...

>> Wednesday, August 04, 2010



Highs returned to the 90s in many spots yesterday around our region, and today should be a few ticks hotter in most spots. I am going for mid 90s for most of our highs, and it will remain very muggy as well.

An interesting precip forecast today. First of all, a little light rain is scraping through northern NC early today as we catch the tail end of a disturbance to our north. That will exit quickly today.

The rest of the day's shower and storm chances largely depends on the progress of a disturbance that began the day in Ohio. Some modeling keeps that disturbance well to our north, while others models bend it southeast and right through our area. As it stands now, it appears the second solution is more or less correct, and I will mention a pretty good chance of showers and storms today.

I expect scattered storms tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid to even a few upper 90s.

Friday continues to look unsettled as a cold front drops in. I expect a good coverage of showers and storms with highs in the low to mid 90s.

That front will slowly sag south of the area for the weekend. I will mention the chance of a lingering storm or two Saturday, then mainly dry and fairly hot (low to mid 90s) conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

Tropics...

Colin died a rather quick death yesterday due to lots of shear and is currently a remnant low. We will monitor for any signs of re-organization.

4 comments:

Anonymous 9:20 AM  

Matt,
Sounds like we're going to need another scale down of the Tropical Weather season prediction. They should just stop making those predictions....it makes other meteorology look bad.

I know we've got a while to go, but it's been very slow this year (when their prediction was very busy).

Brad

Anonymous 12:32 PM  

Makes you wonder if they just named that nothing storm "Colin" just to inflate the numbers in hopes of having this spectacular season they said we were going to have (i.e. above average). I agree with Brad, they should stop these predictions. When it is a bust or even if we have 50 major hurricanes and none hit the coast, no one believes it was an active season. Everyone then makes fun of meteorologists which is a disservice to them.

Besides, how can they label it a tropical storm if they can't even take measurements? Do they just base that off the satellite photos?

Jeremy

Matthew East 5:18 AM  

Brad and Jeremy,

Seasonal forecasts are a tricky beast. I do believe they have some value, but putting out specific hurricane numbers can certainly bite you in the rear end. But the overall scientific reasoning is sound.

People's perception of a hurricane season are always subjective as well. A season can only have 1 land falling hurricane, but if it is a destructive hurricane, people will remember it as a bad year, even if the number of hurricanes was low.

As for this year, the season is very young, and you have to remember we get the lion's share of tropical systems from late August into early October.

As for tropical systems well out in the ocean, there are two ways of getting wind data. One is ship and bouy reports, which are normally pretty reliable. The second is satellite data that actually shows surface winds.

Anonymous 1:29 AM  

Forget about hurricanes... thought it is now August, I am already looking forward to winter and how many winter hits we may get this coming season...lol

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