Thoughts on severe potential today and tonight...
>> Saturday, March 28, 2009
Interesting and complex forecast today and tonight.
We have a frontal boundary that is currently draped from roughly Charlotte to RDU at 9am. That front should very slowly move northward through this evening. Temps are running in the low to mid 50s in the Triad to close to 60 in the Charlotte area to the mid 60s around RDU.
There is a big batch of rain and storms in Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle that is lifting northeastward. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident near the Alabama-Georgia line northeast of Troy. This is a similar feature to the one that developed yesterday and spawned tornadoes in eastern NC.
This batch of rain and embedded thunderstorms will push into the state later this morning and early this afternoon. The airmass is fairly stable in the Triad and Charlotte zones, but it gets a bit more unstable the farther east you go in the state. So as this first wave of activity moves through, I think the severe weather threat for the Charlotte and Triad zones is relatively low. From RDU and point eastward, you will again have to be on the lookout for some severe weather in the slightly more unstable air.
After that wave pushes through, the GFS really surges instibility into the western and central Piedmont this evening, especially in the 7pm to midnight timeframe. In fact, the severe weather indicies are pretty impressive during that time frame on the 6z GFS for CLT and the Triad. However, the NAM is not as unstable.
For the Charlotte and Triad zones, it appears to me the best opportunity for severe weather will run from roughly 5pm this evening into the predawn hours Sunday morning. It looks like a pretty mean line of storms could form and race through the area this evening into tonight. Damaging winds would likely be the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes and large hail would also be possible if the airmass destatilizes enough. The chance of severe weather before this evening in CLT and GSO is not zero, but I think the greatest chances will be this evening.
Some locally heavy rain amounts are also possible, and some flash flooding issues could crop up.
Also, the ground is already saturated in many spots. With those wet ground conditions, it will be easier than normal for trees to topple. So, please don't take severe thunderstorm warnings lightly today and tonight.
Everyone in the state needs to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings if and when they are issued. The best way is a NOAA weather radio. And of course, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television....we will keep you completely up to date and will be live on the air as often and as long as necessary.
8 comments:
its funnny, im scared of lightnin but i think tornadoes r the coolest things.im worried about or tree in the front yard, there is bark falling off of it in pieces and i am really worried about it falling so hopefully it wont get too windy tonite
Hopefully everything will be fine....
so based on new data thunderstorms are a really good bet with some likely severe this evening?
Lots of big storms down in the gulf today...and we have seen no sunshine here in metro, does that help our chances any from avoiding severe storms?
I would say the probability of thunderstorms is overall fairly high, but the severe weather is more of an uncertainty.
In the short term, the clouds, rain, and Gulf storms are helping us. However, we will have to see if instability surges in here this evening as some models forecast.
Hmm, the papers and some local tv stations are really making this seem like its the end of the world. From the way their talking, youd think that we're about to get an extremly large outbreak of storms and we know it for sure. Why do they have to overrun it? Ive been activly readying the GSP discussion, yours and jeffs blog, and the SPC outlooks, and no one is making this out to be the big bad wolf that the news seems like its trying to make it. This is why i get so scared of storms, the mets say one thing, and media says something else. For instance, i am not saying that you have said this this is just an example, if you said there could be...1 tornado today, thats a very weak one in the eastern counties(i live in north, so comforting my own nerves a little), the news would try to make it seem like we're going to have a huge outbreak of EF3-5 almost. News 14 has not done that yet, it seems like the anchors do not even talk alot about it, just what has happened. Which is alot better in my opinion, let the Mets tell the forecast, you guys can word it so much better than a TV anchor, and News 14 does that, which is the best idea. Now, hopefully i didnt curse myself and we get a huge eruption of severe storms...but the media is making this sound so much worse than the way you or jeff do. Another example, 10 mins ago on WSOCTV (sorry about the betryal, as i said, scared of storms need live weather updates!!) their anchors we're talking about a huge storm prep. going on, keith comes on, and talks about the severe threat being pushed more to the south and east of the metro, that all the threats are dimishing as the sheild of rain begins to overtake us and keeping us stable, still says that from roughly 5-9 we gotta keep looking, but he pointed that more toward the eastern sections and southern sections of the viewing area instead of charlotte north and west. Just saying, the media builds up so much pressure on these things, its getting so annoying. Thank you to ALL the local mets who might read your blog and to You Matthew and News 14 carolina, for NOT overplaying everything and telling us the actual FACTS of the storm system.
My apologies for the long and unneded depthness of the above post, when im nervous i generally say things alot of things that are not needed.
T....no problem. Happy to provide a forum for you to vent.
I can't speak for any other stations, but I know at News 14, we try to keep the hype to a minimum. And I know a good number of the others mets in the Charlotte market, and the ones I know would not personally hype a weather event. Weather often times drives ratings, so the temptation is there to pull out all of the stops for news stations when it comes to weather.
I can only speak for myself, and you can know I will always give you my honest opinion. I might be wrong, but I will tell you the way I see it....
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