Frigid....snow chances?
>> Friday, January 16, 2009
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I discuss a lot of stuff in there....give it a look.
No doubt, our arctic airmass has settled in. Low temps in the Piedmont this morning were in the lower teens in many spots, and many mountain spots went below 0....even down to -10 in some instances.
Today will be cold all day with highs only making it into the mid to upper 20s for much of the Piedmont.
It still looks like we will be a few ticks colder tonight that what we saw this morning. I expect many Piedmont locations to dip into the upper single digits. Please continue to take all of the cold weather precautions discussed earlier.
It will still be cold tomorrow with highs struggle to make it to near freezing...in fact, some spots will remain below freezing again tomorrow.
The forecast gets very complex Sunday through Tuesday. The GFS continues to advertise a chance of snow, mixed with rain at spots, Sunday. Meanwhile, the European model keeps us dry with the Sunday system and instead develops a good low pressure area Monday night and Tuesday with the next disturbance dropping down. So, you essentially have some models jumping on the first system as the one that will develop while other models (mainly the EUro) are jumping on the second one.
I have included a chance of light snow, mixed with rain in spots, Sunday in the Piedmont, and I have a chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday. What will probably happen is one of those precip chances will become the primary one while the other system fades away...too soon to tell which one yet though.
Still looks like a brief warm-up mid-week before more cold air arrives about a week from now.
11 comments:
Matt,
this is Brian here in upper cleveland county. What are your thoughts on acumulation up here SO FAR? also, just thought i would throw this out there, at my house, we are down to 9 degrees and it is 7:30 am.
Thanks
Well, how about we play rock, paper, scissors for it Matt? I'll play for the EURO and you play for the GFS?! 1, 2, 3 go....!!!:) Which option would give us more snow Matt? I'm assuming it would be the EURO since it develops a LOW pressure that gets the Gulf moisture involved. Would that be right? Let's hope that plays out, but right now, I'd be happy to get a dusting and to see a few flakes fly given our drought.
Brad
Junior....I don't really have any good feelings about accumulation chances yet. I just don't know what will happen yet. Cold stuff!
Brad, I'll take rock. Taken verbatim, the GFS is a rain/snow mixture Sunday in Charlotte...the Euro Monday night-Tuesday would be all snow, but amounts aren't that heavy.
Matt,
Here's a blurb at the beginning of the 9 am HPC discussion (you probably saw it already). This is what lead me to get my hopes up...the feds.
"SO DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US...HOW DO YOU HANDLE THE 00
UTC ECMWF DEPICTING A 992MB SURFACE LOW CROSSING CAPE HATTERAS BY
INAUGURATION DAY THAT WOULD THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE SERN US THEN
THE ERN MID-ATLC/NEW ENG WITH A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW VERSUS A
LESS DEVELOPED AND MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION? "
It seems like HPC is favoring the EURO which would give us that low in the SE. At least we're in a good situation....either way we get SOMETHING....just depends on how much rather than if at all. We're not in that situation too many times. Thank you arctic air!!
Brad
just curious as to how the roof repair is going. keep up the good work.
hey matthew,
it seems like with either model, each new run brings in more moisture than the previous one....do you think this may be a growing trend and that its possibe we see a pretty decent event?
Matt,
Hey, from the models you have seen, around what time do you think this precip. will come in and will we be getting a transition to all snow to provide some accumulation like 1"-2" of snow?
Thanks
well well,
newest run of the gfs seems to be an even better shot at a decent snow....every run throws in more precip with a low moving up from the south....any new thoughts on this? obviously its just one run and still a couple days away....but each new run has been more and more interesting...hopefully it holds :)
Matthew,
Something came to mind since we are all talking snow possibility here for the weekend and early next week. I doubt this has ever happened, but has Charlotte ever experienced a blizzard before for those years record has been kept? Just curious.
House repairs are basically finished....some final painting to do, but that can't be done until temps are warmer.
Guys, not looking good this morning for snow chances. Some sort of rain/snow mix looks possible tomorrow, but right now, it looks like the precip is going to have a hard time falling where the profile is cold enough for snow...where precip does fall, temps in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere would likely create rain issues.
And all of the modeling is not printing out much of anything for the Tuesday system.
Sigh....what can you do?
MATTHEW,
I SAY WE ALL GO IN TOGETHER AND BUY A SNOW MACHINE..... WHO NEEDS THE GFS AND EURO???
LOL..
THINK I WILL GUY BURN MY SLED AND SNOW SHOVEL NOW... MAKE IT USEFUL FOR SOMETHING..
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