Last Mild Day for a While....

>> Tuesday, December 30, 2008



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Fantastic weather will unfold today with lots of sun and highs up toward the lower 60s. However, weather changes are on our doorstep, and an arctic cold front will move through early tomorrow. Behind that front, it will be a very blustery day tomorrow with northwest winds gusting in excess of 25 or 30mph at times. Highs temps tomorrow will likely occur around the middle of the day with falling afternoon temps.

For all of the New Year's Eve festivities, it will be chilly but dry. Temps should fall through the 30s tomorrow evening and possibly into the upper 20s by around midnight.

New Year's Day will be sunny and chilly with highs in the low to mid 40s for most.

I am still watching Friday's system. It is still possible that a little light wintry precip could work into portions of the Piedmont early Friday, but I stress the word light. It looks like any wintry precip would be brief and light and not a big deal. Some rain will round out Friday afternoon.

The weekend looks mainly dry with temps not too far from normal for this time of year.

Next week, I expect a big system to swing through Tuesday or Wednesday brining a healthy shot of rain. Behind that, the floodgates of arctic air will likely be open. From that point on, I think odds are we are in a rather cold and at least occasionally stormy pattern for a week or two. No details as of yet. See the video for more information on all of our upcoming weather.

And thanks to all of you who have participated in my little snow contest. The deadline to get your forecast in is tomorrow evening. Remember, the forecast site is the Charlotte airport, and you are forecasting whether or not measurable snow will occur this winter, and if so, on what day.

Get out and enjoy the weather today!

5 comments:

Anonymous 10:28 AM  

Matt,
That storm on the 9/10th looks VERY promising on the GFS....it's been fairly consistent now for a couple of days. The cold air seems to be more than enough. If a LOW actually does come from the Gulf to our south to pull down that cold air, I think that may be our best chance for a GOOD snow accumulation in years. What's your thoughts on that storm Matt? You highlighted it on the video but didn't discuss much. What's your thoughts on the "set up" of the system? I know it's VERY early for details but I'm interested to hear how you think the "stage may be set". Thanks for all your input!

Brad

Matthew East 1:09 PM  

Brad....taken verbatim, the 12z GFS is a big icestorm for western North Carolina next Tuesday. Then there will probably be a system of some sort after that.

I didn't discuss it much on the video because it is just too early for any specifics, but we will probably have some fun and games somewhere in there....

Nathan C. 8:25 PM  

Hey, I got this off of the NWS disscusion page:

THE WX PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT
PERIOD. GOOD GOM MOISTURE RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SUN AN WILL
EXPECT A SATURATED COLUMN AND SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA BY
12Z SUN. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED UP TO CHC SHRA TO COVER THIS
SITUATION. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH A COLD FRONT
REACHING THE MTNS SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN WITH
STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE SC MIDLANDS MON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NE AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SETUP COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM.

A SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SAT NIGHT AND THE ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD BE THE
BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT FOR THE CAROLINAS AND
NE GA TUE. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS COLDER AND FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE GGEM AND HPC HAS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF FOR THE CURRENT COLD SEASON IN GENERAL. IN
ANY REGARD...THE FORECAST WILL KEEP THE MID CHC POPS FOR
TUE...HOWEVER THE LLVL THERMAL FIELDS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS
TIME TO INTRODUCE ICING OR MIXED PRECIP FOR DAY 8...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE FAVORED SOLN IS A WARMER ONE. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DOES PORTEND
TO A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION TO
STAY ABREAST OF FOR SURE.





If they are mentioning it, I'm optimistic!

Anonymous 1:36 AM  

After travelling all day and getting home to see the 0z GFS.

Well, it made my jaw drop. It's now a massive snowstorm for almost all of the western piedmont areas.

Matthew East 6:20 AM  

Yep.....6z run looks good too.

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