3pm Update...

>> Wednesday, February 06, 2008

The pre-frontal band of showers and thunderstorms has not allowed much instability to build in the Triad or Charlotte viewing regions. A few storms went severe over northeastern Tennessee over the past couple of hours, but they have since weakened.

The cold front, and the best shear just ahead of it, will move through later this afternoon into early evening.

With instability lacking, I don't expect any huge problems with severe weather. However, there could be a couple of strong to severe storms.

Tragically, the death toll continues to rise with last night's severe weather outbreak. My prayers are with all of those affected.

2 comments:

Anonymous 6:19 PM  

Your pre-dawn video referenced significant modeling support that pointed towards an active weather day and evening.
I was studying for an exam all day and kept it on NEWS14 and kept asking myself, "when were you going to throw in the towel especially with regard to precip and duration....setting aside the severe wx threat that thankfully did not develop.
Winter wx and now spring-like storms misses...I'm losing faith fast in the models.
...back to studying,
Peace,
ANON

Matthew East 9:17 PM  

Anon,

Yeah, the pre-frontal showers and storms really killed any chances for significant late afternoon activity. The pre-frontal activity raced much farther east than expected...it was driven by outflow boundaries from earlier storms.

I think you can tell by the tone of the 3pm update I put on here that I was skeptical anything significant would occur. But, the 3pm update from SPC kept the slight risk as-is, so I just let the going taped weathercasts run to overly err in the side of caution.

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