Tropics

We are watching a tropical wave that is approaching the eastern Caribbean islands this afternoon. A recon plance is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. It is a tough call based on satellite imagery as to whether or not this system is a tropical depression. While there have been some nice blow-ups of storms, they have not remained concentrated in a central location for long periods of time. Also, there is a mid-level circulation evident on visible satellite imagery as I type this, but only the recon plane and ship reports can tell us if there is a low level circulation.

There are also some storms in the northern Gulf along an old frontal boundary. The waters are warm there, and we need to watch that area for any signs of development over the next few days.

As far as modelling is concerned, most models seem to lose the tropical disturbance approaching the Caribbean. Some modelling does want to spin up something in the Gulf.

Bottom line is...we will keep watching. Stay tuned, and stay cool!