Mesoscale Discussion Issued for the Area

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0133 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NRN AND WRN NC...FAR ERN TN
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 281833Z - 282030Z
 
  STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
  WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS
  MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
 
  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SRN VA AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD
  FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
  EXTENDING SEWD INTO NERN NC. STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL
  TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW MDT INSTABILITY
  TO DEVELOP. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
  STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
  LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN VA INTO NRN NC. OBSERVED AND
  FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
  BENEATH MODEST 30-40 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
  HODOGRAPH...MULTICELLS APPEAR LIKELY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
  SUPERCELLS...MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND AND PRODUCING THE
  LARGEST HAIL...FROM 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
  ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY AS STORM
  MOTIONS ACCELERATE LATER TODAY.