Thursday Evening Quick Hits

>> Thursday, January 11, 2007

Busy night at work tonight. I am the meteorologist for the Triad market tonight, and I will be once again tomorrow and Saturday nights. Actually, Saturday night I will be the meteorologist for both the Charlotte and Triad markets.

I have always had to battle chronic headaches, but for some reason, I have had even more of a battle with them over the past few days. Woke up this morning, and the first thing I think is "wow....that hurts." Got that one under control during the day, then during my live block this evening, another good one set in. I seem to be getting that one under control now thankfully.

Some quick hits on upcoming weather events....

  • Not as cold tonight due to clouds....mainly 30s for lows.
  • Warm weekend ahead...I still think some spots will hit the lower 70s Sunday.
  • Arctic cold front moves through Monday. We could see some showers, but I do not think the prospects of heavy rain are all that great.
  • Much colder air takes hold Monday night and Tuesday and will last for much of next week. In fact, I don't think we will get our highs out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday next week.
  • I still think the potential for some sort of overrunning precipitation event next week has to be watched...expecially Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, it looks like any precip we could see at that time would be light, but it also looks like it would likely be of the wintry variety. I still am leaning the way of this not being a big deal, but I will keep an eye on it for sure.
  • Second half of January looks to feature primarily below average temps around here. Just how cold seems to be the question.
Everyone have a great night. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comments section below. God bless...


Anonymous 11:12 PM  

Couple of things...

I feel your pain (literally) with the headaches. Caffeine and Advil always help.

Second, great job nailing the pattern change. You were talking about this WAY back before anyone else.

Third, I was hoping you could help me with the GFS a little. I have been watching it the past few days, and it has been crazy. However, its been indicating winter weather for next week and the following week on an off for a while. Not every run either. Very subtle. As a MET, is that what you watch for? Seems like its hinting, but doesn't have a hold on it yet.

Anonymous 11:19 PM  

Oh, and one more question if you don't mind...

I have always heard about the "540" line on the thickness chart when trying to figure out rain or snow as the dominate precip type. I also knows its not an exact science either.

However, when determining between snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc, what is used? Just the different temperatures on all the model charts? (850mb, 700mb, etc).


Anonymous 11:34 PM  

So hi Matthew what has to happen for the storm on Tuesday or Wednesday to be a big deal, with alt of Snow or ice.

Matthew East 5:01 PM  

First of all, thanks for your kind words with the pattern change. You win some and lose some in this profession, and a lot of times people only tend to remember the "losses." So, I really do appreciate your words.

About the headaches, I have had them most of my life. Advil is all that will touch them....tylenol does nothing. But, there has been some improvement with the headaches recently due to chiropractic care.

And, about the GFS, it certainly does take some wild swings. They continue to tweak with the physics of the model, so it is sometimes difficult to get a real feel for its biases nowadays. But, I always try to see the general time-frames it wants to roll storm systems through, then try to hone in on track ideas based on some of its knows biases.

And, as you know, winter weather forecasting is always a challenge. For me personally, I hardly ever use the "540 line" as a determining factor in precip type. To get an accurate feel for what type of precip should fall, you really have to look at forecast soundings. I am a big fan of BUFKIT, and I can point some links you way for that if you like.

And, for us to see something significant in the winter weather department next week, we need the front to move on through the area and then enough overrunning precip to continue after the air chills enough for wintry precip.

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