Monday Morning Update

Models are coming into better agreement in the handling of the big upper air low this week. In short, it is looking pretty wet in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame for the Carolinas. Obviously, lots of folks will be travelling this week, and certainly there looks to be a lot of rain to deal with in the mid-week time period in the Carolinas.

This developing storm will batter coastal areas of the Carolinas with a few days of onshore flow, high surf, and lots and lots of rain. Beach erosion and flooding will likely be a problem.

It is also interesting to note that the past couple of runs of the GFS have indicated the chance that the precip begins as a period of snow and/or sleet down in South Carolina Tuesday morning. The NAM sounding are warmer, indicating all rain. But, I certainly would not be shocked if some of our friends in South Carolina saw a brief mix tomorrow morning before warmer air takes hold from the coast. Interesting to see this coming to fruition....if you scroll below to the post from last Monday, you can see I was discussing the European solution for this time period...it was indicating some wintry weather chances back then. Certainly an odd weather pattern.

Directly below this post is my Winter Outlook. Take a look and feel free to comment.