Thursday Afternoon

Warm weather continues this afternoon and will continue tomorrow as well. There have been some showers and storms in the mountains, but they should mainly stay west of the Charlotte and Triad regions this evening. I do think a few isolated afternoon storms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially in the Triad, but the rain chance in any one spot is small.

We are continuing to watch development in the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. I still think some sort of tropical-type system will develop over the next 24-48 hours. As for eventual track, the NAM continues to paint the western-most solution taking the low into the western Carolinas. That solution gives the Charlotte and Triad regions a soaking rain Sunday. However, most other modelling is farther east with the track.

I reserve the right to change this outlook if/when a possible center develops, but as of now, I still like the idea of a track very close to the Carolina coast Sunday. If that is correct, expect wet and breezy conditions at the beach Saturday night through Sunday night as well as rip currents and some high surf. If the coastal track is correct, we would only see scattered showers and storms around here Sunday.

Stay tuned.....

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Tropical Thoughts...

Most modelling has at least somewhat consistently shown some sort of tropical development in the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days now...some modelling as long a a week or so ago.

I am a bit constrained by time, but here are some thoughs as of mid-afternoon Wednesday. I do think some sort of tropical system or low will form around the Yucatan Channel or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. That system should get picked up by a trough digging toward the eastern U.S. and turn the system northeastward. Some modelling, most recently the 12z Canadian and 0z GFS, have brought the system up toward the Florida panhandle and then up into the central or western Carolinas. Most other modelling has carried the system off of the coast.

At this point, I am leaning toward the eastern solutions. If the system did carry up off of the Carolina coast, then we would see little to no rain from that system here in the Piedmont. However, if the western solutions are correct, then we could be in for a soaker this weekend. If you have beach plans this weekend, at this point I would say expect some rain and breezy conditions later Saturday and Sunday.

The prospect of this becoming a major tropical system are low, but I do think this has a chance to possibly organize into a named system.

Lots of folks in the Southeast are in serious need of some rainfall, and there is no way everyone will get some needed rainfall out of this. However, this system does have the potential to deliver some much-needed rainfall to parts of the region.

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Tropical Action??

It sure looks like some sort of tropical system will try to develop in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean over the next couple of days. I have some thoughts on this, and I will post them later today as time allows. Putting together graphics and such for my midday Charlotte live block right now....

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