This is one of those mornings where what is going on in the weather is amazing to me. Tremendous temp gradient, winds today, arctic plunge looking likely next week. See the video above for details....
We will need to keep an eye on the thunderstorm potential tonight. While I don't think we will see a big severe weather outbreak, I do think a few strong to severe storms are possible near and right along the wedge front. Where that sets up will be key to watch. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, go ahead and leave it on the 'alert' position tonight just to be on the safe side.
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Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look....
The simple portion of the forecast is rain chances. We will see rain at times today, tonight, and into tomorrow. The more complicated part of the forecast is temperatures. A cold air damming event will unfold for us, and that will create a wide range in temps around the state this afternoon and tonight. By late afternoon, we could see the Virginia border counties in the lower 40s while portions of the southern Piedmont are in the 60s.
The wedge will erode away late tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches, and that is when there will be the opportunity for a few thunderstorms. While I don't think we will have a big problem with severe weather, one or two strong to severe storms can't be ruled out late tonight and tomorrow morning.
The rain will taper off as we head later into tomorrow afternoon. By the time all is said and done, some spots could have seen over two or three inches of rain, so some flooding issues are possible. Up in the mountains, a pretty good upslope snow event will unfold from tomorrow evening into Thursday.
It still looks like a cold front will drop in here Saturday and give us a chance of a little light rain. But at this point, it doesn't look like a big deal.
The models continue to flip and flop on how things unfold from Sunday onward. At this point, you just simply cannot take any one model solution and believe it. Overall, I think the period from Thursday through the 20th or so will average colder than normal...at times possibly much colder than normal. And there will be the potential for a few storm systems as well....but there is nothing yet concrete to hang our hats on.
***No new edition of the video today....I will not be in the weather office. New Carolina Weather Video will be posted bright and early tomorrow morning.***
It is a foggy start today as most people get back into a normal routine after the holidays.
I wanted to put up a quick post to talk about the events we have upcoming. It looks like a very healthy rain events will unfold for us over the next 3 days, and it will come in two phases. The brunt of the first phase looks to rill through later tonight into tomorrow morning. For the rest of the day tomorrow, some at least light rain will remain in the forecast, and then another batch of heavier rain will swing in later Tuesday night into Wednesday.
**I will note that the NAM is much colder than the GFS with our wedging scenario coming up. In fact, the 6z NAM brings temps all of the way down to just above freezing around the Triad (using the sounding data via BUFKIT...not the MOS data). In fact, it is an amazing temp gradient being shown on the NAM between the surface and 850mb. While surface temps are just above freezing Wed AM, 850mb temps are in excess of 10 degrees C. We should stay all rain, but you always have to watch for a little bit of a surprise with these types of events.**
Behind that system, a pretty good shot of chilly air will settle in for the second half of the week, and I expect some healthy upslope snows to unfold up in the mountains later this week as well.
Our next system will then roll through over the weekend, mainly later Saturday it appears. Right now, it looks like it will either be rain or nothing here in the Piedmont. Some showers might have to be dodged for the big Panthers game Saturday evening, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that yet. We will fine tune that forecast this week.
I know there are lots of snow-starved folks here in the Carolinas. I feel your pain....I am one of you! My advice is to hang in there and lets see what the rest of winter brings.
All along, I have thought mid-January held at least some promise for us, and I see nothing to change that opinion right now. So, let's see what can develop next week into the week after (January 11-20th or so). The overall pattern is looking fairly favorable for something to try and materialize. If we can't get anything then, we still have a large chuck of winter left.
Wintry weather exiting state right. Whew....ready for a nap!
Have a great weekend.....
Light wintry mix continues to push through the region. Numerous traffic accidents have been reported in the northwest Piedmont up into the foothills and mountains. Some of the biggest issues look to be some minor glazing on bridges and overpasses around the Triad viewing region.
For the next hour or two, if you do not have to be out on area roadways, it is probably a good idea to stay inside.
This is a very short-duration event, and conditions will rapidly improve by lunchtime.
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.....give it a look.
Some light precip is working through the region this morning. Light rain will mix with some sleet pellets or snow flakes in some spots, but none of this will be a big deal due to the very light nature of the precipitation.
**Edit to add that the GSP NWS has hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory. A few slick spots are possible on roads, but this is not a huge event.**
Our next system will roll through Sunday and bring some rain chances. Then, the next system, a more significant one, will roll through Tuesday. There remain a ton of question marks with that system, and frankly, the computer models are still all over the place with their handling of it. The European models continues to show an all-rain scenario. However, the GFS has been trending a bit colder with the system the past few runs, and taken verbatim, the 6z GFS shows wintry precip for much of the western Carolinas, at least for a period Tuesday morning.
So, no real changes here on this system. There remains at least some chance of at least a little bit of wintry precip with that system, but how great a chance that is, I just don't know yet. We will see....
Thanks so much to all of you for stopping by my little spot on the internet. I appreciate each and every one of you, and I am excited about embarking into the new year.
And thank you for watching us all on News 14 Carolina. It is a tremendous privilege to serve you, and we look forward to a great 2009.
In terms of the weather, I still think a little light precip will fall around the region tomorrow, but light is the key word. It just doesn't look too significant right now. And, there continues to be a lot of volatility in the modeling for next week's system. Right now, the models are showing rain, and that is probably the most likely scenario. However, I will not give up on wintry weather possibilities just yet. It is all a matter of timing, and until that gets resolved, I wouldn't rule out anything.
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