Thoughts on Saturday...

>> Thursday, January 17, 2008

Hopefully, things will get a little clearer if not with tonight's 0z model runs, then the 12z runs in the morning. However, the potential is there for someone in North Carolina and/or South Carolina to get a really nice snowfall.

This is an interesting set-up. By the way, if anyone knows of a case study of an event similar to this, I would love to see it.

I ran the 18z NAM and GFS through BUFKIT, and taken literally, the NAM printed out 6-10" of snow for Charlotte.....possibly beginning as a bit of rain but changing quickly to snow. The 18z NAM printed out 6-8" for Winston-Salem....precip essentially begins as snow.

The 18z GFS gave Charlotte 4-6" of snow while giving Winston-Salem 2-4".

I am not going to put out any accumulation predictions this evening. I simply don't have enough confidence in any one solution to do so at the moment. I want to review tonight's model data, and I will make a call after that.

But I will continue to say that someone in the Charlotte, Triad, or Triangle viewing areas could very well see a significant snowfall. The keys are obviously where and how much.

I am sorry I can't get more specific is just too tough to tell at the moment.


Anonymous 11:46 PM  

Hey Matthew
I was just looking at other news stations...unfortunately i dont have news14 on my tv, but i look at the site all the time..and i left Jeff a comment as well. Everybody seems to be thinking this is gonna be a larger and colder storm than forecasted earlier today. What are your thoughts on this. Also with the arctic air mass moving in is there a chance that air gets here before the storm? and if so how bad do you think the roads will be with this storm? I am worried bc my wife is supposed to work Sat night and well, im from the south and SNOW/ICE+Driving=a bad day ha Thanks -Joe

Matthew East 9:36 AM  

Definitely a colder system aloft, meaning mostly snow. I don't know where exactly you are from, but there certainly could be SOME travel problems as Saturday unfolds.

Thanks for reading!

Anonymous 9:37 AM  

It looks like we're backing off on this all together. Jeff is saying a rain/snow mix because the low is too far out to see to cause a snow event. NWS is saying 1-3 inches but the temp not getting lower than 36 during the event. That equals pretty much no accumulations in my mind. Maybe some pretty big flakes falling......

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