Chilly Friday weather, but warming up this weekend...

>> Friday, November 18, 2011

Brrr! Many spots around the region spent several hours in the 20s early this morning. As I am typing this, the top of Sugar Mountain is sitting at 16 degrees!

We will have sunshine all day today, but foothills and Piedmont highs will only be able to warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows again tonight will drop into the upper 20s in many spots.

This weekend, the cold airmass will modify with highs well into the 50s Saturday and well into the 60s Sunday.

Look for a good deal of clouds to be with us Sunday through the middle of next week. Some modeling wants to bring a little rain in Sunday, but I have not gone with that solution and have held the rain chances off until later Tuesday and Wednesday.

At this point, it looks cool and dry for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.


Colder air is here....

>> Thursday, November 17, 2011

It was a rough evening across our region yesterday as several tornadic storms ripped through. Unfortunately, there have been several fatalities, and storm surveys are being conducted today.

Behind that system, colder air is flowing into the region, and temps will slowly fall through the day. We will see showers linger through this morning, but then some sun works in this afternoon.

Lows tonight will drop below 30 in many spots, and highs tomorrow will only make it into the upper 40s and lower 50s despite a sunny sky.

Saturday's highs will warm into the 50s with some 60s Sunday.

Next week....

Our next system will likely arrive around Wednesday next week with some rain chances for that big travel day. There is tons of disagreement amongst the modeling as to exactly how things will transpire later next week, but the general idea looks to be some rain chances Wednesday followed by cooler air for Thanksgiving.

There are growing signs of a big blast of cold air in the days following Thanksgiving.


Showers and some storms...

>> Wednesday, November 16, 2011

A pretty dynamic setup today and tonight. Highs will again surge into the 70s this afternoon, well above mid-November averages. At the same time, our next system is moving into the region and bringing some waves of showers and thunderstorms.

There will be tons of dynamics involved with this system, but the question mark remains instability. Over the last couple of model cycles, instability values have been increasing, and I do think a few severe storms are possible across the region this afternoon and evening. I can't rule out a couple of tornadoes, but damaging wind will probably be the biggest severe threat.

Rain will linger overnight and through much of tomorrow morning as colder air spills in. The temp will not rise much tomorrow with low and mid 50s for highs. Lows will be sub-freezing Friday and Saturday morning for most in the region with highs again in the 50s Friday and in some spots Saturday too. Highs warm well into the 60s by Sunday.

Pattern change???

There will not be a major pattern change through next week, and I still see no definitive indication of when a wholesale pattern change might occur.


Warm and breezy today...showers and storms coming...

>> Tuesday, November 15, 2011

A warm and breezy mid-November day will unfold across the region today with highs well into the 70s under a partly sunny sky. Winds will gust out of the southwest to 20-30mph at times. Lows tonight will only drop into the low and mid 60s for most.

A cold front and low pressure area will slowly pull into the area of the next 36 hours. Some showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible over night tonight, then showers and storms highlight the forecast tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Some severe storms are possible later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Instability will be lacking, but shear will be we will watch it.

Behind the storms system, it turns colder again for Thursday and Friday with 50s for highs and lows back below freezing.


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