When will winter return to the East??

>> Saturday, December 30, 2006

First off, I am feeling much better today. I have loaded up on vitamin B12 yesterday and today. I don't know if it is that or the virus just ran its course, but either way, I am much-improved. Not 100% yet, but getting closer....

As to the question in the title, I am continuing to get more confident that winter will indeed make a comeback over the eastern US next month. And, I continue to think we will see significant signs of that occurring in the January 10-15th time-frame. Here are a few of the reasons why....

  1. The NAO will trend toward neutral by mid-month after beginning the month on the positive side. In fact, I think the NAO could make a run at being negative by the time the second half of the month unfolds.
  2. The AO, which has been raging positive since the end of November, will take a big tumble around mid-January. The last time the AO took a crash like I am expecting was back in October. By the way, if you recall, Charlotte finished October almost 4 degrees below average in the temp department.
  3. A deep trough will likely dig into eastern Asia and Japan next weekend. Using the typical 6-10 day teleconnection there to the eastern US, that would again indicate a good chance for and eastern US trough right in the 10th-15th time-frame.
Now, will this be another transient shot of colder weather, or will it be a more sustainable pattern. Well, in my opinion, this hinges on two things. First of all, the dreaded southeast ridge. If you like cold and snow in the East, this thing has been brutal for the past couple of weeks, and it looks to hold fairly strongly on into January. But, there are signs this will break down around mid-month next month, and if that occurs...definitely a good thing for cold weather fans in the East.

Secondly, can we get any blocking established? I don't have a good answer on that one yet. But, my gut tells me that as we head through the second half of January, we will indeed see blocking set up that could keep us in a prolonged colder than average pattern. But, we shall see....

So, there ya have it. I do think a colder pattern will make a return to the eastern US by around mid-January. However, don't get me wrong....at least the first 7-9 days of the month will feature primarily above average temps around here. The potential pattern change is after that.

And, how about some December verification? Through yesterday, CLT was a +2.3 for December. My forecast was +0.5. The error there was an expected end of the month cool-down that simply didn't happen. My forecast, from back in mid-November, for January for CLT was a -2.0. For the moment, I will still ride with that, although the second half of the month will certainly have to be cold to overcome the warm start to the month for that to verify.


Short Post

>> Friday, December 29, 2006

Short post tonight...I am a bit under the weather....I think I finally caught the stomach virus that the kids have had for the past several days. Not feeling my best by any means....

But, some quick thoughts.....

  • Sunday night into at least Monday morning looking quite wet around here.
  • Warmer than average weather will be the rule for much of next week.
  • I am liking more and more the idea of a major pattern change around mid-month January. Most of the teleconnection indices are heading that way. I am still hammering down a time-frame, but I still like the idea between the 10th and 15th as being the time when things really start to show signs of changing to a colder pattern for the East.
Time to wrap up the shift tonight. After a long day and this virus eating at me, the bed will feel good tonight....

See you on the television in Charlotte tomorrow evening!


>> Thursday, December 28, 2006

I sincerely hope all of you had a great and happy Christmas. We all enjoyed a nice Christmas at our house. I guess the downside was that the kids took turns being sick through the holiday, but all in all, things went very well.

It is time to evaulate how things are going with our winter around here. Above average certainly fits the bill for our temps ever since the early-month cold snap. And, I think for the most part, the above average temps will continue for the next couple of weeks.

If you remember, in my winter forecast, I had the temp forecast in Charlotte for December slightly above average at +0.5 degrees. I feel I had the right idea, with some radical temp swings. But I had envisioned that we would be back in a colder pattern by the end of the month, and that simply won't happen. Right now, the departute from normal for CLT in December is running a bit above 2 degrees above average. We will probably finish somewhat close to 2 or 3 degrees above average for the month.

Now, I know it feels the times are getting desparate for lovers of snow and cold weather. However, take heart. Looking at the east Asia teleconnection, combined with some of the other teleconnection indices, I feel we will see a significant push of colder air around mid-January....probably between the 10th and the 15th. However, don't hold me to any details just yet....I am not completely ready to commit on a time-frame. But, the point of me saying this was to say to the fellow cold weather and snow lovers over the eastern U.S. "take a deep breath.....stay calm......and be patient. I think the pattern will start looking much better for the second half of January." However, between now and then, I think it is likely lights-out for any snow chances around here.

I will be the met for both the Charlotte and Triad markets Friday evening, so I will try to put some more thoughts on here sometime tomorrow evening. Have a good night!


Merry Christmas!

>> Sunday, December 24, 2006

Luke 2:1-20

Now in those days a decree went out from Caesar Augustus, that a census be taken of all the inhabited earth.

2This was the first census taken while Quirinius was governor of Syria.

3And everyone was on his way to register for the census, each to his own city.

4Joseph also went up from Galilee, from the city of Nazareth, to Judea, to the city of David which is called Bethlehem, because he was of the house and family of David,

5in order to register along with Mary, who was engaged to him, and was with child.

6While they were there, the days were completed for her to give birth.

7And she gave birth to her firstborn son; and she wrapped Him in cloths, and laid Him in a manger, because there was no room for them in the inn.

8In the same region there were some shepherds staying out in the fields and keeping watch over their flock by night.

9And an angel of the Lord suddenly stood before them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them; and they were terribly frightened.

10But the angel said to them, "Do not be afraid; for behold, I bring you good news of great joy which will be for all the people;

11for today in the city of David there has been born for you a Savior, who is Christ the Lord.

12"This will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger."

13And suddenly there appeared with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying,
14"Glory to God in the highest,
And on earth peace among men with whom He is pleased."

15When the angels had gone away from them into heaven, the shepherds began saying to one another, "Let us go straight to Bethlehem then, and see this thing that has happened which the Lord has made known to us."

16So they came in a hurry and found their way to Mary and Joseph, and the baby as He lay in the manger.

17When they had seen this, they made known the statement which had been told them about this Child.

18And all who heard it wondered at the things which were told them by the shepherds.

19But Mary treasured all these things, pondering them in her heart.

20The shepherds went back, glorifying and praising God for all that they had heard and seen, just as had been told them.

John 3:16

For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life.

May you all have a safe and blessed Christmas!


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