Cold air is here

>> Friday, December 30, 2016

Cold, blustery conditions around the region today. Then, look for 2017 to get off to a wet start. Mild mid-week, and then I continue to watch the time period centered around next week for winter weather possibilities.

Today's video has all of the details:

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Colder air moving in

>> Thursday, December 29, 2016

Wet start to 2017 on the way, and no changes from me regarding the need to watch the January 6-10 period for potential winter weather chances in parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic.

I identified this time period a while back due to pattern recognition, and while individual runs of models will flip and flop, I still think that period holds interest.

Details in today's video:

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Active weather pattern

>> Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Quiet today, but showers arrive late tonight. Cold air takes over for Friday into the New Year's weekend, another system moves in Sunday-Monday, and I continue to watch the period January 6-10 for potential winter mischief somewhere across the Upper Southeast/ mid-Atlantic.

Today's video:

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Mild today with a few showers

>> Tuesday, December 27, 2016

In today's video, we look at a quick-hitting pattern we are now in plus look at longer-range ideas into January, including trying to sniff out any wintry weather potential.

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Wet Christmas Eve forecast

>> Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Plus, a look at the final week of 2016's weather.

Today's video:

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Sunshine returns

>> Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Slowly moderating temps over the next couple of days as sunshine makes its return around the region. Plus a look at Christmas weekend and the final week of the year.

Today's video:

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Colder weather back today

>> Monday, December 19, 2016

A look at a little freezing rain for some today, the forecast through Christmas weekend, and a peek into the longer range.

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Frigid air poised to arrive

>> Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Some minor icing possible Saturday morning as well.

All of the details on what's ahead in today's video:

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Showers later today, arctic air back by Thursday

>> Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Then a little freezing rain possible Saturday morning followed by Sunday showers and more potential wintry mischief early next work week.

Today's video:

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Arctic air firmly in place

>> Friday, December 09, 2016

Complicated setup then unfolds next week.

Today's video:

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Arctic air arrives later today

>> Thursday, December 08, 2016

Complicated setup over the next few weeks, but I still think multiple rounds of arctic air are on the way.

Details in today's video:

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Not as cool today, but arctic air is heading our way

>> Wednesday, December 07, 2016

TONS of ground covered in today's video, including what could be 3 big shots of arctic air ahead between now and Christmas and any precipitation chances to go along with that cold air.

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Rainy and chilly Tuesday

>> Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Coldest air thus far this season arrives by Friday.

A look at what's ahead, including long-term December thoughts, in today's video:

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Rain moves back in tonight

>> Monday, December 05, 2016

Shot of arctic air arrives late-week.

All of the details in today's video:

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Big rain event early next week; blast of true arctic air on the horizon

>> Friday, December 02, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Cool and dry weather back in place.... for now.

>> Thursday, December 01, 2016

Another big rain-producing storm system on the way Sunday through Tuesday....then a big blast of cold air later next week.

Details, plus a wrap-up of this week's storm system, in today's video:

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Showers and storms today

>> Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Then quiet the rest of the week followed by another big storm system by Sunday.

All of the active weather details in today's video:

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Showers today, rain and some storms tomorrow

>> Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Another system possible Sunday-Monday.

Today's video:

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Major pattern change underway

>> Monday, November 28, 2016

And it begins with a multi-day Southeast rain event.

Today's video is action-packed:

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Quiet for the rest of the holiday weekend

>> Friday, November 25, 2016

Then, a widespread rain event looking likely next week.

Today's video has all of the details:

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Big travel day today

>> Wednesday, November 23, 2016

In today's video, I take a detailed look at the weather on this huge travel day.

Also, I expect a fundamental change in the overall weather pattern to begin next week. We will be changing from this primarily dry weather pattern of the past couple of months to a pattern that will feature much more frequent storm systems and precipitation chances. The first of those storm systems should bring the Southeast some decent rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Details in today's video:

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Dry weather continues....

>> Tuesday, November 22, 2016

However, I see indications of a fundamental shift in the overall weather pattern down the road.


Details in today's video:

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Mild finish to the week, then big changes this weekend

>> Thursday, November 17, 2016

Today's video:

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Chilly nights, pleasant afternoons...

>> Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Plus, a big shot of cold air by Sunday, some mountain snow in the offing, and a wildfire update.

Today's video:

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Sunshine with mild afternoons through the end of the week

>> Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Then, sharply colder by Sunday.

Also, an update on the drought and wildfire situation in today's video:

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Cool with some clouds & light rain today

>> Monday, November 14, 2016

Sunshine back in full-force tomorrow with a warming trend this week followed by another big shot of cold air later in the upcoming weekend.

Today's video:

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Colder air arrives for the weekend

>> Friday, November 11, 2016

Also, the drought worsening across much of the Southeast.

Today's video:

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Shot of chilly air on the way this weekend

>> Thursday, November 10, 2016

Today's video:

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Sunshine and cool temps ahead...

>> Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Today's video:

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Quiet weather continues...

>> Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Today's video:

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Warm today; cooler tomorrow

>> Thursday, November 03, 2016

Plus, no sign of any real relief from the dry conditions over the western Carolinas.

Today's video:

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Warm weather on tap

>> Friday, October 28, 2016

Lots of above average temperatures on the way. Today's video:

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Isolated PM showers today - fantastic weekend ahead

>> Thursday, October 27, 2016

Today's video:

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Cool and sunny today... big warm-up for the weekend...

>> Wednesday, October 26, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Cooler air has arrived

>> Tuesday, October 25, 2016

But, a warm weekend appears on the way!

Today's video:

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Warmer today, cooler tomorrow...

>> Monday, October 24, 2016

Today's video:

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Here comes the much cooler air!

>> Friday, October 21, 2016

Today's video:

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One final day of near record warmth

>> Thursday, October 20, 2016

Then, much cooler air arrives.

Today's video:

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Record highs possible today...

>> Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Then turning sharply colder by late Friday.

Today's video has all of the details:

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Three more days of warmth

>> Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Then much cooler for Friday and the weekend.

Today's video:

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Warm weather for most of the work week

>> Monday, October 17, 2016

Details on that, a cool-down for the weekend, and the tropics in today's video:

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More great October weather

>> Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Here's the latest Carolina Weather Video:

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Matthew battering the South Carolina and Georgia coast

>> Saturday, October 08, 2016


Hurricane Matthew is absolutely battering coastal South Carolina and Georgia this morning, and I am afraid the results will be pretty devastating on the South Carolina barrier islands south of Charleston. 
For our area, we will continue to have the moderate to heavy rain shield on the NW flank of Matthew overspread the area for a large portion of today. The lightest rain totals will be in our foothill areas, but from roughly I-85 and points south and east, 2-4" of rain are possible. 
Winds will be an issue later today with NE winds gusting over 25-30mph at times. That might bring down a few trees with saturated ground conditions in place. It will remains fairly breezy through tonight and tomorrow. 
Much drier and cooler air begins to flow in here tonight, and the weather setup looks fantastic tomorrow through all of next work week. Each day will feature plenty of sunshine and highs will be in the 60s and 70s. Morning lows will actually be quite cool with many days beginning in the 40s.
Get the latest on Hurricane Matthew on TWC News. Meteorologist are working around the clock to bring you the latest information.
Be safe!

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Matthew paralleling the Florida coast.... surge problems for Georgia and South Carolina

>> Friday, October 07, 2016


An easterly flow on the north side of Hurricane Matthew will continue to bring us intervals of rain today and tonight. Temperatures will be held in check with highs only in the 60s today.

Hurricane Matthew will continue to parallel the Florida coast today and will likely brush near the South Carolina coast, possibly making a brief landfall, late tonight. I am concerned about the storm surge potential in Georgia and South Carolina with this due to a prolonged onshore flow as well as the very low pressure associated with the hurricane. 

The heavier shield of rain associated with Matthew will likely make it up to roughly the I-85 corridor late tonight through Saturday morning. For the Triad and Charlotte regions, I think a total of 1-3" of rain is possible with the heaviest amounts being the further south and east you go in the area.

Much drier and cooler air arrives for Sunday. I expect essentially full sunshine Sunday through the middle of next week, and low beginning Monday morning will likely dip into the 40s! 



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Matthew pounding the NW Bahamas, heading toward Florida

>> Thursday, October 06, 2016

Today's video:



Hurricane Matthew is strengthening this morning and will likely become a Category 4 hurricane sooner rather than later. The center will likely pass just southwest of Nassau this morning, and then approach the southeast coast of Florida by this evening. From there, Matthew will track northward very near the coast of Florida. For some areas, such as the Space Coast, this could be the strongest hurricane on record to impact that area.
Further north, Matthew will track very close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later tomorrow into tomorrow night. How strong Matthew will be at that time will depend largely on how much time the system spends over land in Florida. Due to the system essentially paralleling the coast, that's impossible to determine at this point. 
For the interior Carolinas, look for clouds to build later today with rain becoming increasingly likely tonight. I expect rain at times tomorrow and tomorrow night, then a drying trend by Saturday afternoon. Beautiful fall weather will then unfold Sunday onward. 
For the Carolinas coast, this will be worse for South Carolina than it will be for North Carolina. Again, how bad it will be will be determined by Matthew's interaction with Florida tomorrow. 

Read more...

Latest on Matthew

>> Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Today's video:



Matthew emerged from eastern Cuba in a somewhat weakened state this morning. However, the system remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane.
Matthew will track NW through much of the Bahamas, and should remain a powerful hurricane while doing so. I maintain that this will be a really rough hurricane for most of the Bahamas.
Through the day Friday, Matthew will track extremely close to the Florida coast, and then at some point, will make a sharp turn to the right. How quickly this easterly turn occurs will determine how bad the impacts are along the Carolina coast.

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All eyes on 'Matthew'

>> Tuesday, October 04, 2016

All of the information contained in today's video:

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Focusing on Matthew

>> Monday, October 03, 2016

Lots of ground covered in today's video:

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Great weekend weather; closely watching 'Matthew'

>> Friday, September 30, 2016

All of the information in today's video:

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Scattered storms today...great weekend ahead...

>> Thursday, September 29, 2016

Plus all of the details on Tropical Storm Matthew:

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Scattered storms still with us...

>> Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Still watching the tropics carefully as well.

Today's video:

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Scattered showers and storms

>> Tuesday, September 27, 2016

But a great weekend is on tap. Also keeping a close watch on Matthew-to-be.


Today's video:

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Unsettled weather the next few days....

>> Monday, September 26, 2016

Closely watching the tropics as well.

Today's video:

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Weather changes underway

>> Friday, September 23, 2016

In fact, lots of changeable weather in the offing. Lots covered in today's video:

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Clouds with some showers today

>> Thursday, September 22, 2016

Drier, warmer weather as we head into the weekend. Then, a very complex forecast scenario next week.

Details in today's video:

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Clouds, some rain, and breezy conditions for Wednesday

>> Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Remnants of Julia bringing some wet weather to much of the Carolinas today.

Today's video:

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Remnants of Julia still causing issues

>> Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Best piedmont rain chances probably tomorrow.

Today's video:

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Unsettled weather this week

>> Monday, September 19, 2016

Here's today's video:

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Nice weekend on tap...tropics still very active...

>> Friday, September 16, 2016

Details in today's video:

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Not as hot today.... tropics are active...

>> Thursday, September 15, 2016

Today's video:

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Quiet the next few days; unsettled this weekend

>> Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Today's video:

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Cooler temps this week

>> Monday, September 12, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Heat continues, but changes are coming...

>> Friday, September 09, 2016

All of the details in the latest edition of the Carolina Weather Video:

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Heat continues for a few days

>> Thursday, September 08, 2016

Today's video:

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Heat is here

>> Wednesday, September 07, 2016

Today's video:

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Heat building in

>> Tuesday, September 06, 2016

Details on what's ahead in today's video:

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Rain and wind from Hermine the forecast challenge today and tonight

>> Friday, September 02, 2016

Full details in the video:

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All eyes on Hermine

>> Thursday, September 01, 2016

Full details in today's video:

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TD 8 pulling away...TD 9 ramping up....

>> Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Plus, some fantastic holiday weekend weather ahead once the impact from TD 9 exit.

Today's video:

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Lots of tropical talk

>> Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Plus, a fantastic holiday weekend is on tap.

Today's video:

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Tropics are very active....

>> Monday, August 29, 2016

All of the information in today's video:

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Heat and humidity firmly in place

>> Friday, August 26, 2016

Continuing to watch the tropics as well.

Today's video:

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Getting hotter and muggier

>> Thursday, August 25, 2016

Plus, I spend a lot of time delving into the tropics in today's video:

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Heat and humidity slowly increase

>> Wednesday, August 24, 2016

And the tropical wave in the northeast Caribbean could wind up having US implications.

Today's video:

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Nice August weather continues.... tropics really heating up

>> Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Lots to talk about in today's edition of the video:

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A welcome weather change

>> Monday, August 22, 2016

Much lower humidity and cooler temps are here, but the heat returns late week. Also, the tropics are percolating.... details in today's video:

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Scattered storms through the weekend, but then big-time weather changes

>> Friday, August 19, 2016

Details in today's video, plus a look at the tropics:

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Scattered storms today; big weather changes next week

>> Thursday, August 18, 2016

Plus, the details on Tropical Storm Fiona:

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Hot, humid, scattered storms

>> Wednesday, August 17, 2016

The daily chances for storms are gradually on the rise, and the heat and humidity continue. However, a pattern change is on the way for next week. See the video for more:

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Heat and stifling humidity

>> Tuesday, August 16, 2016

The heat marches on, but some changes coming down the road.

Today's video:

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Few storms and hotter temps

>> Thursday, August 11, 2016

Details in today's video:

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Soupy airmass remains in place

>> Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Effecting rain-producing scattered showers and storms again today. Hotter and drier for the weekend.

Today's video:

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More tropical showers and storms

>> Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Today's video has all of the details:

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Humid with areas of rain and storms

>> Monday, August 08, 2016

Today's video:

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Scattered showers and storms today

>> Friday, August 05, 2016

Hotter for the weekend, then cooler again early next week.

Today's video:

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Cooler with shower chances remaining high

>> Thursday, August 04, 2016

Some big flooding problems yesterday and last night in portions of the region, and rain chances remain high today and tomorrow. Also, Hurricane Earl made landfall early this morning in Belize.

Today's video:

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Cooler with showers at times

>> Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Hotter and drier for Saturday. Also, Earl is in the Caribbean and could become a hurricane today.

Today's video:

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Good shower and storm chances today.....

>> Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Heat set to take a bit of a break, plus a look at the tropics.

Today's video:

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Scattered storm chances continue

>> Monday, August 01, 2016

Plus, a tropical system could be forming in the Caribbean Sea.

Today's video:

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Heat and humidity back down just a bit

>> Friday, July 29, 2016

Today's video:

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Stifling heat and humidity continue

>> Thursday, July 28, 2016

Today's video:

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Heat and humidity march on

>> Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Heat and humidity continue, but subtle relief is in sight.

Today's video:

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Heat, humidity, and scattered storms

>> Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Details in today's video:




Also, tonight is the night of the big Media Mayhem School Bus Race out at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Always a lot of fun.... come on out!




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Dog days of summer are here

>> Monday, July 25, 2016

Lots of heat and humidity.

Today's video:

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Heat and humidity really cranking....

>> Friday, July 22, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Heat and humidity build through the weekend

>> Thursday, July 21, 2016

Today's video:

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Slight break from the humidity today

>> Wednesday, July 20, 2016

But the heat and humidity really crank this weekend.

Today's video:

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Heat, humidity, storm chances...

>> Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Hot weekend on the way.

Today's video:

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Hot and humid today

>> Monday, July 18, 2016

We could be building toward a very hot upcoming weekend as well.

Today's video:

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Better storm chances have arrived

>> Friday, July 15, 2016

Today's video:

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Today the hottest day of the week

>> Thursday, July 14, 2016

Unsettled Saturday on the way.

Today's video:

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Heat builds the next couple of days

>> Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Then storm chances increase for the weekend.

Today's video:

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Humidity and scattered storms today

>> Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Then hotter for the rest of the work week.

Today's video:

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Humidity is back, and so are the scattered storms

>> Monday, July 11, 2016

Today's video:

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Heat and another round of storms today

>> Friday, July 08, 2016

Plus, a hot weekend is on the way.

Today's video:

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Healthy round of showers and storms today

>> Thursday, July 07, 2016

Then heat builds tomorrow and Saturday.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms today and tomorrow

>> Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Then oppressive heat Friday and Saturday.

Today's video:

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Hot, humid, scattered storms

>> Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Today's video:

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Unsettled for the holiday weekend

>> Friday, July 01, 2016

Full weather details for the big Fourth of July holiday weekend in today's video:

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Scattered showers and storms

>> Thursday, June 30, 2016

And those chances continue right through the holiday weekend.

Today's video:

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Only isolated storms today

>> Wednesday, June 29, 2016

But the holiday weekend could be fairly unsettled.

Today's video:

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Fewer showers and storms

>> Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Today's video:

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Cold front slowly approaching

>> Monday, June 27, 2016

Better storm chance late today into tonight.

Today's video:

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Cooler air arriving, and a fantastic weekend is on the way

>> Friday, June 17, 2016

Today's video has all of the details:

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Hot today, a few storms could work in this evening

>> Thursday, June 16, 2016

A fantastic weekend is on the way.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms today

>> Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Still somewhat unsettled through Friday, but then the weekend weather looks awesome.

Today's video:

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Humidity levels and storm chances on the rise

>> Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Today's video:

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One day break from the heat and humidity

>> Monday, June 13, 2016

Changeable weather throughout the week.... next weekend looking fantastic.

Today's video:

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Heat settles in this weekend

>> Friday, June 10, 2016

Today's video:

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Awesome weather today, but heat takes over this weekend

>> Thursday, June 09, 2016

Today's video:

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Lower humidity set to arrive

>> Tuesday, June 07, 2016

But a hot weekend is on tap.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms for one more day; Colin in the Gulf

>> Monday, June 06, 2016

Great mid-week weather; hot weekend on tap.

Today's video:

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Steamy and stormy

>> Friday, June 03, 2016

Plus a look at next week's weather and the next potential tropical mischief.

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Summer-like weather has settled in as June arrives

>> Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Today's video has all of the details about our upcoming weather!

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Soupy tropical air remains in place

>> Tuesday, May 31, 2016

That means a continuation of scattered shower and storm chances.

Details in today's video:

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Warmth continues today, but a tropical type of low is heading to the Carolinas

>> Friday, May 27, 2016

Today's video:

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A wonderful vacation

>> Tuesday, May 24, 2016

I just wanted to share some memories and photos of what was a wonderful, beautiful vacation last week. The primary reason for the trip was to celebrate my oldest daughter's 13th birthday. Having 5 children, sometimes individual time for the kids can be a challenge to obtain. So, we have decided to take each of our daughters on a trip like this when they turn 13. It's just our gift to them.

The trip was a week-long cruise on the beautiful Carnival Magic. Folks, this ship is spectacular. There's always something fun to do (or plenty of areas to relax and do nothing, if that is your preference!). Even though there are over 3,000 passengers onboard, never once did it feel crowded.







After having a great time and enjoying the activities on the ship the first evening and through the first sea day, we arrived at our first port of call: Amber Cove, Dominican Republic.

This portion of the Dominican Republic is breathtakingly beautiful. A portion of the movie Jurassic Park was filmed here, and you can see why. I was blown away all day by how gorgeous the scenery was. There is also a great pool with nice waterslides down the side of the mountains that were a blast, and my daughter had an awesome time zip-lining through the day.





Our next stop was another beauty.....St. Thomas. The beauty of the city of Charlotte Amalie nested in the mountains surrounding the sparkling blue water was amazing.



The view as we were docking here was fantastic, and I was able to snag a quick time-lapse.

This was a port where we walked from the pier to downtown. The folks that work in the U.S. Federal building in St. Thomas don't have too shabby a view out their front door...haha.


Here is Fort Christian, a Dano-Norwegian-built fort in 1671.


Just a beautiful place.



From there, the next stop was San Juan, Puerto Rico. Yet another beautiful place. Again, we decided to do a lot of walking since there were a ton of things to see right there close to the cruise pier. We are history nerds, so being able to walk through the forts of San Cristobal (built in 1700s) and San Felipe (built in 1600s) was just outstanding. These are Spanish-built forts that were built to protect ownership of the ultra-important port of San Juan and the entrance into its harbor in this era.











San Felipe has some modern-day guardians that are pretty friendly to the visitors:



Again, the views simply took your breath away as well.


Our final stop was in Grand Turk, in the British West Indies. Once again, this was a fantastically-photogenic port with beautiful scenes abounding. 






Here, we did a really great shore excursion that allowed us to kayak up and down North Creek right to its mouth at the Atlantic Ocean. From there, the guide had dove down and scooped up a ton of plant and animal life for us to see and hold....anything from conch to star fish to jelly fish. Then, we had time to roam around on our own and search for souvenir conch shells.




Unfortunately, I didn't have a water-proof camera with me, so photos at this point of the trip were limited. 

The waters just off Grand Turk is also the location where John Glenn's Friendship 7 Mercury capsule splashed down, and there are monuments to remember the occasion.


With that, a final sea day was ahead, and then we had to end the vacation as-scheduled..... for some reason, they wouldn't let us stay on and go around again. Haha. 

One final note, the Magic is a great ship with many fun things to see and do. My wife and I enjoyed going in the Red Frog pub each evening.... just a really neat vibe in that place that we liked. 


The onboard Italian restaurant, Cucina Capitano, had what was possibly the best lasagna I've had in my life.... we ate there three times.


Just an awesome trip....thankful to have had the chance to go.



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Warmer weather rolling in

Forecast challenges for the weekend.

Today's video:

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Warming trend on the way

>> Monday, May 23, 2016

We are still under the influence of an upper level low today with cooler temps and scattered showers remaining a possibility. However, a big-time warm-up arrives soon.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms today

>> Thursday, May 12, 2016

Turning cooler over the weekend.

Today's video:

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Warm with storm chances set to increase

>> Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Today's video:

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Lots of warmth this week

>> Monday, May 09, 2016

Storm chances increase later in the work week.

Today's video:

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Much cooler today with areas of rain

>> Thursday, May 05, 2016

Weekend looks great.

Today's video:

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A break from the big storms

>> Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Cooler setup working into the region, but some shower chances remain.

Today's video:

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More intense storms possible today

>> Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Today's video:

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Scattered storms through tomorrow

>> Monday, May 02, 2016

Then trending cooler later this week.

Today's video:

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Scattered storms continue for some today

>> Thursday, April 28, 2016

Plus, rain arrives over the weekend.

Today's video:

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Scattered storm chances working into the region

>> Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Today's video:

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Warmth continues

>> Tuesday, April 26, 2016

But, shower and storm chances set to increase. I also look at your weekend forecast and the possibility of cooler weather in the longer range.

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Warm the next few days

>> Monday, April 25, 2016

Then unsettled mid-week weather.

Today's video:

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Quite warm today and tomorrow

>> Monday, April 18, 2016

Next rain chance not until late in the work week.

Today's video:

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Picture-perfect weekend on tap

>> Friday, April 15, 2016

Plus a look at when our next storm system will arrive.

Today's video:

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Quiet and nice weather for a while

>> Thursday, April 14, 2016

Today's video:

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Cool and quiet weather

>> Wednesday, April 13, 2016

A look at what's ahead in today's video:

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Rain tapers off later today

>> Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Great weekend ahead...

Details in today's video:

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Milder today, some rain tonight into Tuesday

>> Monday, April 11, 2016

Today's video:

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Chilly weekend on tap with a widespread freeze Sunday morning

>> Friday, April 08, 2016

Plus, a look ahead at next week in today's video:

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Gearing up for a chilly weekend

>> Thursday, April 07, 2016

Another freeze on the day.

Today's video:

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Round of rain late tonight; another freeze likely this weekend

>> Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Details in today's video:

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Much colder air is here

>> Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Multiple freeze opportunities ahead, beginning tonight.

Today's video:

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Nice today, but multiple freeze chances ahead

>> Monday, April 04, 2016

Today's video:

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Unsettled through tonight, then a nice weekend on the way

>> Friday, April 01, 2016

A frost or freeze still looks possible by mid-week as well.

Today's video:

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Next storm system rolling in...

>> Thursday, March 31, 2016

Plus, a freeze (maybe freezes) next week?

Today's video:

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Nice today, next system tomorrow and Friday

>> Wednesday, March 30, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Sunny and a little cooler today and tomorrow

>> Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Next system brings rain, storm potential Thursday into Friday.

Today's video:

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Drying out today...

>> Monday, March 28, 2016

Much warmer and drier weather will be in place by this afternoon, then the weather looks great tomorrow and Wednesday. Our next system then arrives Thursday.

Details on all of that, plus some longer-range ideas, in today's video:

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Cooler for Saturday, some rain later Easter Sunday

>> Friday, March 25, 2016

Plus, a look at our next system later next week and the chance of an early April chill in today's edition of the video:

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Cold front arrives tonight

>> Thursday, March 24, 2016

Another system moves in by late Easter Sunday, and I also take a look at the long-range pattern as we head into April in today's video:

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Warm and breezy today

>> Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Couple of systems heading our way.

Details in today's video:

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Warming trend underway, couple of system heading our way

>> Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Plus, long-term thoughts discussed in today's video:

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Chilly to start the week, but a quick warm-up coming

>> Monday, March 21, 2016

I also look at our next blast of cold air headed our way in today's video:

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Great Friday weather... cool and damp this weekend

>> Friday, March 18, 2016

Plus a look at the forecast as we head toward Easter.

Today's video:

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Warmth slowly backing down

>> Thursday, March 17, 2016

Much cooler this weekend with some rain chances arriving.

Today's video:

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Warm and dry today

>> Tuesday, March 15, 2016

A look back at the big storm later yesterday, looking ahead to our weekend system.

Today's video:

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A few severe storms possible by this evening

>> Monday, March 14, 2016

Plus a look at what's ahead in today's video:

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Weather changes for the weekend

>> Friday, March 11, 2016

In today's video, I look at the Lower Mississippi Valley flooding, our weather changes this weekend, and share my ideas for the rest of the month.

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Warmth continues; changes this weekend; long-term thoughts

>> Thursday, March 10, 2016

Plus huge flooding problems in the Lower Mississippi Valley:

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Very warm weather continues...

>> Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Big-time flooding in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, a look at when that system arrives in the Carolinas, and some long-term thoughts for the rest of the month in today's video:

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Flooding and severe weather to our west

>> Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Great work week weather in the Carolinas:

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Spring-like weather this week

>> Monday, March 07, 2016

A big, slow-moving system will bring a dual flood and severe weather threat to the Plains and Mississippi Valley through the week.

The work week will be warm and quiet in the Carolinas before that system plays a part in our weekend weather.

Today's video:

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Quieter pattern settling in

>> Friday, March 04, 2016

Big warm-up on the way next week as flooding and possibly severe weather issues take over in the Mississippi Valley.

Today's video:

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A little snow for some areas tonight

>> Thursday, March 03, 2016




Another cool day is unfolding around the region today under a mostly cloudy sky. An area of low pressure continues to quickly move our way from its Arkansas daybreak location, and that low will pass through Georgia and South Carolina tonight and then lift near the Outer Banks tomorrow morning.
The result of that low will be the chance of some rain showers later this afternoon, and then as colder air gets involved tonight, the mountains, foothills, and areas north and west of roughly I-40/ I-85 will likely see some snow.
See my potential accumulation map below. The mountains will likely receive several inches of snow, and a couple of inches are possible in the foothills and Virginia border areas. South of there, the accumulation potential rapidly drops off. 
Following this system, a cool weekend is on the way before we have a big warmup next week. .

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Much cooler today

>> Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Next system could end with some snow for some tomorrow night... next week warmer and eventually unsettled.

Today's video:

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Cold front arrives tonight

>> Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Weather changes begin with the arrival of a cold front tonight. Another system might being a little snow to some in the region Thursday night.

Today's video:

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Cool today and tomorrow, milder starting Sunday

>> Friday, February 26, 2016

Next system due in by Wednesday.

Today's video:

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Quiet weather ahead

>> Thursday, February 25, 2016

Wrapping up yesterday's system and a look ahead to the medium and longer range:

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Severe weather possibilities today

>> Wednesday, February 24, 2016

All of the information in today's video:

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Dynamic severe weather-producing system impacting the Southeast

>> Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Full details here:

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Rain at times... potentially storm Wednesday...

>> Monday, February 22, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Milder this weekend

>> Friday, February 19, 2016

Still tons of uncertainty with next week's system.

Today's video:

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Docile through the weekend

>> Thursday, February 18, 2016

Then a big system next week as the pattern flips back to colder.

Today's video:

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Nice through the weekend

>> Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Big system possible next week, plus long range thoughts.... all covered in today's video:

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Drying and thawing out

>> Tuesday, February 16, 2016

A recap of our departing system, a look at the forecast into next week including an early-week storm system, and some long-range thoughts, all in today's video:



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Winter weather event underway for parts of the region...

>> Monday, February 15, 2016

All about it in today's video, including final call maps:

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Some quick Sunday AM thoughts

>> Sunday, February 14, 2016

Here are some very initial ideas for the winter weather potential starting late tonight through Monday/ Monday evening. My initial call maps are at the bottom of this discussion and remain subject to change through the day.

The parent high responsible for the maintanence of cold air damming will quickly slide out to sea Monday, so the type of cold air damming that will be in play will be what's called in-situ. That means the dome of cold air at the surface is maintained by evaporational cooling from precipitation.

A HUGE key to this forecast tomorrow is getting heavier rates of precipitation into the dome of initially very cold, extremely dry air. For the areas north of I-40, I like the odds of getting at least some decent snow for a period of time late tonight into tomorrow morning, which should help to lock the wedge in for a while.

Further to the south, toward Charlotte and the Upstate, I do not like the trends right now on a lot of the modeling regarding precipitation rates tomorrow. At this point, my thinking is that precip rates through the day tomorrow will be quite light for most of this area, and if that's the case, the wedge will not get as firmly established, and it won't be quite as cold as it potentially could be (for the more technically-inclined, I call this inefficient wet-bulbing...where dewpoints creep up at a higher rate than the temperature drops would otherwise be with higher precip rates).

So, this region could wind up with a lot of clouds, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets after possibly brief snow initially.

The band of heaviest precip will approach from the west tomorrow evening, and assuming what I mentioned above is correct, I would expect the Charlotte metro and Upstate to be above freezing, albeit barely. Areas further to the north, toward Hickory, Wilkesboro, and such, temps could still be sub-freezing. However, as we get toward tomorrow night, temperatures above the wedge of cold air at the surface warm substantially so that collection of freezing rain becomes less and less efficient, and it becomes a self-limiting process.

**What could go wrong??*** Well, if precip tomorrow morning winds up heavier than it appears right now, the dome of cold air will get locked into place further to the south, and areas down toward the Charlotte and Upstate could wind up with a longer period of icing. Also, initial snow totals, in this scenario, might have to be beefed up in northern NC.

Most locations in the region should climb above freezing tomorrow night as rain continues to move through. So, any road problems should actually improve as we get into Tuesday morning.

However, there is a good potential for travel issues as we get later into Monday in many areas as even a minor glazing of ice creates problems.

This goes without saying, but this is an extremely complex forecast scenario, and there are likely some surprises on tap in some areas. We will see.






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A little snow today

>> Friday, February 12, 2016

Bitterly cold this weekend, and still watching Monday's system carefully.

Today's video:

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Bitter cold and a potential winter storm

>> Thursday, February 11, 2016

All of the details in today's video:

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Frigid air in place

>> Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Still watching a system next week that might produce some wintry precip in parts of the region as well.

Lots covered in today's video:

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Coldest stretch of the winter is here

>> Tuesday, February 09, 2016

By any measure you choose to use, be it actual air temperatures or temperature deviations from average, the 6-day period starting today and ending Monday are the coldest of the winter. Highs will make it to around 40 or so today, but gusty winds will make it feel colder than that. Lows drop into the low and mid 20s tonight, and then I expect upper 30s for many of our highs tomorrow through Friday.

An even colder blast of air arrives for the weekend, and I still expect some 20s for highs Sunday and potentially some single digit lows for some of us Sunday morning. 

I began mentioning the possibility of a storm system February 15-17 back around February 1, and I continue to stick with that idea. Right now, it looks like any potential storm system would be centered around Monday.

Please see today's video for all of the details:


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Lots and lots of cold headed our way

>> Monday, February 08, 2016

Maybe some snow, too.

Today's video:

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Chilly weather is here...

>> Friday, February 05, 2016

I take a look at this morning's light snow, some coastal snow possible Saturday night and Sunday, cold weather next week with some flakes possible, and long-range thoughts, in today's video:

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More rain for parts of Carolinas today

>> Thursday, February 04, 2016

A snowflakes possible tonight, discussing the coastal low Sunday, cold and and maybe some snowflakes next week, and a look at the long-range, all in today's video:

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Rain and storms today....

>> Wednesday, February 03, 2016

An intense line of rain and storms will slowly move through the Carolinas today. While I don't expect an outbreak of severe weather, some damaging winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, are possible. Also, many rain amounts will at least be in the 1-2" range, so some localized flash flooding issues are possible.

A potential system will try to impact part of the region Sunday, but the models are all over the place with how they handle the associated upper level energy.

Next week will be cold, and possibly extremely cold by later in the week, and with lots of upper level energy flying around, some snow showers could be wrung out from time to time.

I cover all of this in an extensive Wednesday edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to watch.

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Lots to talk about

>> Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Cooler today, showers and storms tomorrow, cooler with another system Sunday-Monday, and a big-time blast of arctic air next week.

Today's video:

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Mild again today, much cooler tomorrow,

>> Monday, February 01, 2016

Showers and storms Wednesday, then back to a cooler and potentially unsettled pattern ahead.

Today's video:

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Cool for a couple days, big-time weekend warmup

>> Thursday, January 28, 2016

Very warm early next week, then the pattern flips by late week.

All of the details in today's video:

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Cooler for a few days, great weekend weather on the way...

>> Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Mild weather early next week, and then we flip back to a chillier pattern.

All of that covered in today's video:

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Some showers tonight, cooler tomorrow and Thursday...

>> Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Great weekend weather, warm early next week, then the pattern flips cold again.

I cover all of this, plus take a look at the early February pattern, in today's video:

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Milder today and tomorrow

>> Monday, January 25, 2016

More fun and games later this week?

Today's video:

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Major winter storm begins tonight

>> Thursday, January 21, 2016

Today needs to be used for preparations ahead of an incoming major and disruptive winter storm.

See the video for my thoughts:

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Late-week winter storm looking increasingly likely

>> Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Some folks will have a period of light snow today that could whiten the ground in some areas, but a major winter storm is looking increasingly likely to impact a lot of the region starting tomorrow night.

I go over all of the details in today's video:

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Winter Storm Potential Growing for Most of North Carolina

>> Tuesday, January 19, 2016

The entire 12z suite of model guidance is in, and as I mentioned in the video and on air this morning, my confidence continues to slowly increase that a significant winter storm will occur for at least a sizeable portion of NC and likely down into Upstate SC as well.

As mentioned on the video, the GFS has been the furthest north with the low pressure track/ energy transfer and weakest with the cold air damming signature. That remains the case as of the 12z, but it has shifted south a bit, and the GFS ensembles are generally farther south than the operational.

Operational GFS


GFS Ensemble Mean

GFS Operational



The Canadian model has continued to indicate a strong wedge signature and created an icy mess for much of the damming region of NC into Upstate SC.

Canadian Operational

Canadian Operational
Canadian Operational


But my model of choice continues to be the European. In general, it has been rock-solid consistent and in lock-step with its ensembles with this system. It made a slight southward jog at 12z, but the overall theme and its handling of the transition of energy from the TN Valley low to to the SC coast has been incredibly steady. Below is a comparison of the 12z operational Euro and its ensemble mean plots.

Euro 72 hour Operational

Euro 72 hour Ensemble Mean

Euro 84 hour Operational
Euro 84 Hour Ensemble Mean


Euro 96 hour Operational
Euro 96 hour Ensemble Mean


So what does all of this mean?? First of all, the caveat. The primary piece of energy that spawns this storm system is just moving ashore on the West Coast over the next 6-12 hours. So, some significant modeling changes are possible as this piece of energy gets better sampled.

However, I think the chances continue to increase that a significant winter weather event will impact much of NC, especially I-95 and westward and down into the Upstate of SC. It goes without saying that a huge winter storm is on the way for the Virginias. For southern NC and into the Upstate, this could wind up producing significant freezing rain/ sleet sandwiched by snow at the front and back end of the system. As you head further north in NC, less ice and more snow would likely be involved.

It is still too soon for specifics, so I can't answer questions for everyone's backyard. That will come as we continue to hone in on this system over the next couple of days. We are 3 days out and I completely reserve the right to make changes moving forward. I am just giving you a 'look behind the curtain' as to what I am thinking as of snow.

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