Cooler Easter Sunday

>> Saturday, March 22, 2008

After highs in the 70s today, it will be cooler for Easter Sunday with highs in the upper 50s for most. For sunrise services, you will need the coat with temps in the upper 30s near sunrise.

Our system that we have been discussing will not be anything significant for the Carolinas. It will bring is some clouds and possibly a few sprinkles or flurries, but not a big deal. It will be farily cool Monday with low to mid 50s for highs and those clouds overhead.

Temps look to soar back into the 70s for highs by Thursday.

Everyone have a blessed and wonderful Easter!


Good Friday Evening...

>> Friday, March 21, 2008

We had nice weather for Good Friday today with lots of sun and highs in the 60s for most.

Look for fantastic weather tomorrow with lots of 70s for high cold front will plunge through later tomorrow, and that will cool us down for Easter Sunday. Highs in many spots will be in the mid to upper 50s, and it will be chilly for sunrise services with lows Sunday morning in the mid to upper 30s.

As for our Monday system, it just looks like it will be too suppressed for any major precip. Now, a few areas of light rain or a few snow flurries will be possible in the Carolinas, mainly Monday morning, but I think the chances of seeing anything significant are VERY small now.

As it stands now, the big 500mb low over eastern Canada looks a tad too strong to allow the storm system to really crank up the coast. So instead, it sheepishly slinks out to sea.


Thursday Evening...

>> Thursday, March 20, 2008

The models have not been kind to snow lovers in North Carolina today. I won't bore you with running down all of the models, but suffice to say, most models are no longer showing a huge snow event for the state. Now, GFS aside, a good number of models are still showing the potential for some snow in the Carolinas Sunday night or Monday, just not as much or as drastic as yesterday.

Just going off of the models, certainly any confidence in accumulating snow is rather low this evening. However, now is not the time for model-hugging. When you are dealing with a complex scenario like the one for Monday, the models are really going to struggle 4 days out. In fact, until the upper air disturbance makes it into the North American observation network (probably will not make it in until at least the 12z model cycle tomorrow), there will likely continue to be lots of model flip-flopping.

So, let's get down to it. What are the chances of a big snow for North Carolina? Not good, but simply because of all of the many variables that would have to line up perfectly.

My forecast thinking really remains unchanged from yesterday. I do think there is the potential for some snow in the Carolinas, but how great that potential is is still impossible to determine. Odds are we won't see any significant snow, but the chance is still out there.


Thursday Morning...

I have lots of stuff going on at the homefront this morning, so this will be brief.

And, just like that....*poof*....the GFS really squashes our potential Monday system. The models are all over the place, and I am sure you will see a lot of flip-flopping from various forecasting outlets over the next few days.

However, if you are a regular reader of mine, you know once I latch onto an idea, I will ride it until forced not to. Model madness continues, and I will continue to say that there is the potential for some snow in portions of the Carolinas Monday.

How big is that potential, and will it happen? Still impossible to say. But the GFS squashing the storm really means nothing to me at this point.

Enjoy the weather today and this weekend....should be great for your Easter weekend plans.


3:30pm Update...

>> Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Rain with embedded storms beginning to roll into the area. The severe weather potential is not looking all that impressive. Like I have been mentioning here, we just don't have the instability in place for a big event. However, the winds aloft are screaming, and it would only take some relatively weak thunderstorms to tap into those winds and bring them down to the surface. So, a strong to severe storm is possible through the evening, but this just does not look like a big event.

On to Monday's event. Here is where I have to give the obligatory cautionary word....we are still talking about five days from now. However, the latest 12z GFS and European model are in-house, and both are showing snow for at least the western Carolinas.

While often times we see the dreaded northwest trend settle into the modeling as we approach an event, it might not be the case this time. If you are a snow fan, it certainly is a good sign to have both the Euro and the GFS generally agreeing with each other, as opposed to one being in one camp and the other being in another.

However, like I mentioned in the post earlier in the day, to get this type of event to unfold as is being depicted in the modeling right now, we have to have many, many variables line up exactly right. If one little things unfolds in a different manner, then *poof* goes our snow chances.

So, it is impossible to tell at this point whether or not we will see some snow. At this stage of the game, I would say confidence is beginning to increase that portions of the western Carolinas could see some snow Monday into Tuesday. However, it is FAR, FAR from set in stone. At this juncture, let's just call it something interesting to watch over the next several days.


Noon Wednesday...

Still watching the severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening. This is a classic high shear / low instability environment for the approaching storm system. Often times in these scenarios, we end up with some low-topped thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds.

Surface temperatures and dewpoints are high enough to support severe weather here in the Piedmont. However, temperatures aloft are warmer than they usually are in these types of storm system. That is why the instability is lacking. So, this is really just a wait and see deal around here. If severe weather develops, damaging winds would be the primary threat.

Above is the damaging wind probability graphic from the SPC.

Now, let me briefly discuss Monday. Remember, we are five days away, and lots will change. The players are on the table for a big snowstorm from the mid-Atlantic up through the New England states. However, events like this require perfect timing of features at many different layers of the other words, it is difficult to do.

The 0z runs of the GFS and the European model today were almost textbook examples of a western North Carolina snowstorm. I have posted a couple of frames below. Will it happen? Impossible to tell right now. But, I have mentioned rain and some snow chances in my forecast for Monday. It is obviously late in the season, but if things line up correctly, it can happen. But will it???


Quick morning hit....

Lots to talk about this morning. I am closely watching any potential severe weather this afternoon and evening, and I post much more here later this morning.

I am also quite interested in Monday's storm system. It looks interesting to say the least...might we see some snow chances somewhere in the Carolinas???

Again, much more later this morning....


Watching Wednesday's System...

>> Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Check the new video for all of the details....I still think severe weather is a possibility tomorrow afternoon and evening (and you can tell I didn't have a full dose of coffee in me yet in the video...I said the winds at 850mb were out of the SSE instead of SSW).

The instability will still be somewhat lacking, but not because of conditions here near the ground. We will probably wind up with dewpoints over 60 degrees and temps over 70 degrees in spots tomorrow afternoon....not a problem in terms of supporting severe weather. However, the temperatueres aloft will not get overly cold, and that will keep instability in check.

So, we will probably see a round of showers and storms swing in later tomorrow afternoon and end tomorrow evening. Damaging winds will be possible, and I can't completely rule out an isolated tornado or two.

Of course, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the details. I will be on the air in the Charlotte market tomorrow between 11am and through the afternoon hours before Jeff takes over for the evening shift.


Weather Video

>> Sunday, March 16, 2008


Sunday Evening...

Pretty nice Palm Sunday weather out there today with lots of sun and highs in the low to mid 60s. We will enjoy some nice weather for the next couple of days as well.

Our next system will roll in here Wednesday. I do think some thunderstorms could be involved, and I won't rule out some severe weather. One factor against severe weather is doesn't look like we will have much of it. Most indications are that the showers and storms will spread in during the first half of the day Wednesday. If that is the case, there will not be an opportunity for lots of daytime heating in advance of the system.

Also, unlike this last storm system, the winds at the surface and aloft look pretty unidirectional. That would already make the tornado threat pretty low...however, that does not negate damaging wind potential.

So, we have a couple of days to watch that system. At this point, I think we can't rule out severe weather chances, but I am not overly excited about it. Let's watch it and see....

On another note, if you are a college basketball fan, this is a great time of year. My Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered a disappointing loss last night to Georgia in the SEC Tournament, but they are safely in the NCAA Tournament. I love watching the Tournament Selection Show, and I am excited to see where State is heading.


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