Relief is in sight....

>> Friday, August 04, 2006

We have to endure one more of these oppressively hot and humid days before relief arrives. Again today, we will be in the mid to upper 90s to even near 100 for highs with heat index values exceeding 105 at times this afternoon.

As a frontal boundary edges our way, we will see some scattered storms at times later this afternoon and evening. Some of those storms could be strong to severe. The atmospheric set-up today is one that is favorable for microbursts, so damaging winds definitely are a possibility with a few of the storms.

The cold front will stall out to our south this weekend, and we will have a northeasterly wind flow in place behind the front around here. Also, lots of moisture will be pooled nearby behind the front, so all in all, I think the weekend will feature a good amount of clouds as well as the chance for a passing shower or storm at almost any point in the day. However, I think the thing that is most anticipated is the cooler temps. Look for highs in the upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the MET guidance numbers for Charlotte show a high Saturday of 83 and Sunday at 81. That is a possibility, but the clouds would really have to be piled in here. Suffice to day, cooler weather this weekend.

The strong northerly shear finally beat up Chris enough that the NHC has downgraded the system to a tropical depression this morning. The system looks horrible this morning with no deep shower or stom activity near the center.

If Chris survives, there will be an opportunity for at least some re-strengthening later this weekend and early next week as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico.

Final T-ball Update...
We closed out the t-ball season last night. Unfortunately, we did not get to play the scheduled game, but we had fun with the end of season celebration. I had a blast being a coach for those kids. They really did bless my heart and were a lot of fun to be around.

The next sport to come up is soccer. Note sure whether or not we will make a run at playing that. We have a lot of stuff happening this fall, so I think right now we will probably sit that one out....

Anyway, have a great day. I was in the early morning shift today, so nap time for me will be a welcome thing this afternoon. I will be back in my normal evening shift this weekend.


Thursday Evening...

>> Thursday, August 03, 2006

Some active storms this afternoon. Reports of multiple trees down in Gaston county 5 miles southeast of Cherryville and penny size hail along Hwy 52 in Stanly county.

It was also a hot one. Looks like Gastonia topped out at 98.

You might have noticed some issues with News 14 Carolina today. We had some fairly major computer problems, and due to that fact, some old information ran on the air for a good chuck of the afternoon while our engineering staff fixed the problem. Thankfully, everything was back up and running properly right in time for the first severe thunderstorm warning to be issued.

Hopefully, all of the issues have been ironed out and we will have smooth sailing tomorrow.

A quick note about Chris. The system has tried to develop some deep convection on the east side of the circulation center, but you can clearly see that fairly strong northerly shear is still affecting Chris. Take a look at this link and notice the thunderstorms getting blown off to the south soon after they form. So, all in all, the environment around Chris remains hostile this evening. But, the low level circulation is still very much in tact, so Chris still has a pulse.



The weather often times has a way of humbling me. One of those times has certainly occurred with Chris.

I consider tropical weather forecasting to be one of my strong suits as a meteorologist. To me, all systems looked go for Chris to likely become a hurricane by this morning. However, I wake up this morning to see Chris a shadow of its former self, struggling to hold on to life as a very weak tropical storm. Quite frankly, I simply did not see this dramatic weakening as a big possibility yesterday.

What happened? Well, I think it was a combination of two things. First, the system entrained dry air, and that initially started the weakening process of Chris. Also, northerly shear impacted the system, and those two factors were enough to beat up Chris significantly.

What we have this morning is a swirl of low and mid level clouds. No deep convection is associated with the circulation center of Chris. Check out this visible satellite loop...

Chris still has a well-defined low level circulation, and if it can develop convection near that center, some re-strengthening is possible. However, it now has a tough road ahead of it with Cuba in its not-so-distant future.

So, I will take this lesson and run with it. Maybe I missed something that I could have seen yesterday indicating Chris would weaken? Maybe not? Either way, it just means I will search twice as hard for indications of what will happen next time.



>> Wednesday, August 02, 2006

A couple of heat notes here....

The low this morning at LGA in New York was 86! That is painful to think about.

Also, the noon observation from Myrtle Beach was a temp of 91 and a dewpoint of 82...that is flat-out nasty. I think people were actually gelling with the air the humidity was so high. By the way, the heat index at MYR at noon was 114!

Hot for sure around our area. 99's on the board right now for Salisbury, Concord, Monroe, and Wadesboro. Heat index is 107 at Shelby, Monroe, and Wadesboro. Like the title indicates....ouch.


Oppressive Heat

As I am typing this, most temps are up into the mid 90s around our area, and most dewpoints are sitting in the mid 70s. That is equating to heat indices approaching the 105 degree range. By all means, stay inside today if you have that option.

The heat wave is affecting much of the eastern US. Some parts of New England will have a hard time dropping below the 90 degree mark for lows tonight.

Outside of a few isolated showers and storms today, the heat is about all there it to talk about in our weaher.

Tropical Storm Chris continues to organize, and I think Chris will become a hurricane either later today or tonight.

As for the track, most models agree that Chris should track north of Hispanola. However, differences arise after that. Some modelling takes the system into Cuba, while some modelling keeps Chris north of Cuba toward the Keys or south Florida.

The differences exist because diferent models are handling the strength of a big m0s;level ridge to the north of the system differently. The stronger the ridge, the farther south Chris gets shoved.

As of now, my thinking is such that I would guess Chris will stay a little north of Cuba and head toward the Keys or south Florida later this weekend or early in the work week. However, the Cuba option is certainly a viable one.

As for intensity, if Chris stays north of Hispanola and Cuba, I think it has a decent chance of becomine a major hurricane by the weekend.

Interesting to say the least. Keep checking back...I will post updates on my thinking as time allows....

Everyone stay cool as best you can!!


Hello Chris....

>> Tuesday, August 01, 2006

As you likely know by now, our third tropical system of the Atlantic season formed last night, and it has quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris.

Lots of errands amd family stuff happening today, so not much time to review data on Chris yet. However, my initial impression is that Chris will get into the Gulf of Mexico by around the weekend or early next week.

If time allows, I will post more this evening. But if not, I am back in the saddle at work tomorrow and will have plenty of discussion regarding Chris. Stay tuned, and stay cool!


Monday Morning Musings...

>> Monday, July 31, 2006

Lots of heat this week. I still think this will be the hottest week of the year. Look for mid to upper 90s all work week long, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees any afternoon. Stay cool!!

The tropics have been simmering, and I think the lid is about to burst off. We still have the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea, the one approaching the Lesser Antilles, and one off of the African coast.

The GFDL has been indicating that the wave east of the islands will develop and move west-northwest this week. It is still indicating this on its 6z run today. That system could wind up off of the east coast by next weekend.

The wave in the Caribbean is probably destined for the Gulf this week.

And, for several runs in a row now, the GFS (and now the Canadian as well) develops out first true Cape Verde tropical system in the eastern Atlantic this week.

So, all in all, I think the quiet period of weather in the tropics is about to come to an end.

A couple of notes here...I had planned on putting up some of the tropical model data here this morning, but the domain is very sluggish....couldn't upload any images.

Also, we are aware of the issue on the News 14 Carolina web site where graphics and radar images are not being updated. We are working to resolve that. Thanks for your patience.


Weather and Tropics Heating Up

>> Sunday, July 30, 2006

This should be our hottest week of the year. Mid to upper 90s will be the rule for highs this work week, and each afternoon we will have some heat index values likely exceeding 100 degrees. Please take it easy and stay cool.

I believe most college football tems start practice this week, and most NFL teams are going as well. With such a hot week on the way fo much of the eastern US, I sincerely hope everyone takes precautions and we don't have any heat related tragedies this year.

I also think the tropics will heat up this week. The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea will probably wind up in the Gulf this week, and the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles will probably wind up somewhere off of the Atlantic coast by next weekend. Both of this systems bear close watching.

Also, a big tropical wave has emerged off of the African coastline. Interesting to note that the GFS shows a system develop in that region later this week.

So, all in all, I think the tropics will start to pop as this week progresses as well.

Everyone stay cool this week!


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