Drier air on our doorstep....

>> Friday, May 29, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

We had some active storms move through the region yesterday afternoon, and some reports of severe weather occurred in portions of the Carolinas. See the video above for the map of yesterday's storm reports.

A cold front will slide through the region today, and that front will spark scattered showers and storms around the Piedmont through the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but on the other hand, not everybody will see the rain today. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most.

That front is the leading edge of some drier air that will settle in tonight. The sky will clear out tonight and lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Beautiful weather is on tap tomorrow with lots of sun, highs in the low to mid 80s, and much lower levels of humidity. Enjoy!

I am going to maintain the dry forecast for Sunday. However, as I have been mentioning all week, I can't rule out a shower or two somewhere in the Carolinas from a decaying complex of storms that will likely develop tomorrow in the Ohio Valley.

Monday and Tuesday look quite warm with highs in the upper 80s....some backyard thermometers could hit 90. And, beginning Tuesday, I will being back in the chance of some afternoon storms.

Enjoy the weekend.....


Tropical Depression One

>> Thursday, May 28, 2009

TD 1 formed in the western Atlantic. This is our little low pressure area that skirted the Outer Banks yesterday. This looks to head out to see and not bother much land.


Scattered showers and storms...changes ahead....

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

We remain in a humid airmass that will promote the development of scattered showers and storms again today. Like we have seen the past several days, some locally heavy rain will occur in form of the showers and storms, and a couple of strong to severe storms can't be rule out. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s around the region.

A cold front, which marks the leading edge of some drier air, will move through the region tomorrow. The precise timing of that front is still in question, but it still looks like we could see some scattered storms mainly tomorrow afternoon. Again, some strong storms are possible wherever they develop. Highs will be in the mid 80s.

That drier air will give us a dry Saturday with highs well up into the 80s. I have maintained a dry forecast for Sunday, but we still need to keep the possibility open that a complex of storms, that will develop over the Ohio Valley, could race southeast toward our area by Sunday afternoon. Odds are we remain dry, but I can't rule out that possibility.

As we get back into next work week, temps will be in the mid to upper 80s for highs, and we will bring back the chance of a few afternoon storms each day.

On another note, I was glad to see my Red Wings advance to the Cup finals. Chicago is a great team, but they still are a tad young....they will be back. And the Canes had a great playoff run...sad to see that end, but I think their tank was just about empty after two 7 game series.

Gotta love the Stanley Cup playoffs!


Warm and humid...more showers and storms

>> Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

We remain in a warm and humid airmass here in the Carolinas. This will result in scattered showers and storms again firing today. Again, we will have the potential for some locally heavy rain, and some flash flooding issues could occur in spots. Highs will be in the upper 70s around the Triad to the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

A cold front is approaching the region. Out ahead of it, a Piedmont trough will likely develop tomorrow helping to enhance the coverage of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the 80s.

That cold front will work its way through the region Friday, gradually working in drier air from the west. However, it looks like enough moisture will remain in place for at least some chance of some scattered storms Friday.

That drier air will be in place by Saturday, so look for a warm and dry start to the weekend with highs in the 80s.

For the time being I will maintain a dry forecast for Sunday with highs well up into the 80s. However, there is one fly in the ointment. There is a chance an MCS (complex of storms) could develop near the Great Lakes Saturday and race southeastward, dropping some chance of showers and storms in the Carolinas Sunday. Like I mentioned, I will keep Sunday's forecast dry for now, but keep that possibility in the back of your mind.

It will get quite warm as we head through the first half of next work week with highs in the mid to upper 80s...even some lower 90s can't be ruled out. We will also see the return of some scattered PM storms.


Tropical showers and storms...

>> Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Soupy, tropical conditions continue. With a look at the water vapor imagery you can trace our plume of moisture all of the way from the eastern Caribbean Sea.

The result for us is more showers and embedded storms today. With the airmass being as humid as it is, more tropical downpours are likely, and some localized flash flooding issues could develop. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today.

More showers and storms are on the way tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

A cold front will eventually sag our way. At this point, it looks like it will move through late Friday. So, both Thursday and Friday we could see some mainly afternoon scattered storms. However, drier air will work in here behind the front, and as of now, the upcoming weekend still looks warm and mainly dry.


Well well....

>> Monday, May 25, 2009

No other way to say it....the public forecast I put out Friday for the Memorial Day weekend was flat-out bad. I grossly under-estimated the rain chances. Thinking back to Friday morning, most modeling was dry, but I have to give credit to the NAM....it was hitting the rain chances for the weekend much harder than most of the other models....I just didn't buy it.

So, the forecast for the weekend was bad, and we saw a lot more rain over the weekend than I thought we would back on Friday.

Time though to get up, dust myself off, and hop back on that horse. So here we go...

Today and tomorrow we will remain in this moisture-laden flow off of the Atlantic. This will again result in numerous showers and a few isolated storms. For your outdoor Memorial Day plans, it should not be a wash-out, but you will likely have to dodge some showers at times. Highs will be in the upper 70s for most.

Later this work week, we get back in a pattern of mainly afternoon scattered storms with highs in the lower 80s.

Let's all take some time today to remember those who gave their lives for our country. While BBQ and what-not are fun, let's remember the reason for today. People died so that we could enjoy the lives we do today.....let's honor them.


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