Friday Morning . . .

>> Friday, February 04, 2011

Once again allow me to apologize for the tardiness of the post here. Still dealing with the wintry weather across the area. Luckily our forecast for SE LA was pretty good as the freezing line remained just to the northwest overnight. Lots of ice though from Baton Rouge westward and then some snow up along the I-20 corridor around Shreveport. We also had some thunder and lightning earlier, along with some of the sleet and snow flakes mixing in with the rain. What a crazy system! Thundersleet is pretty rare for anybody, and especially down here. Just a really dynamic system as the surface low works it's way south of our coast and then begins to turn up into the Carolinas

Of course rain is overspreading the Carolinas as we speak. There is a freezing rain advisory for much of western North Carolina until midnight tonight. While I don't expect this to be a huge issue . . . as we mentioned yesterday some of the colder spots and elevated road surfaces could get slick at times so be careful driving around tonight. Most of the area right now though is above freezing so that is good news. After rain tonight and the first half of the day on Saturday, things should clear out in time for a nice Sunday.

The next chance of some showers will be on Monday however this system looks fairly week. What's interesting is the potential for another massive shot of arctic air by the end of next week. Take a look at this . . .

That is the GFS surface forecast for 192 hours which is next Saturday morning the 12th. Now granted this is still over 7 days out, and I never really trust any model or forecast over about 3 to 4 days. However what's important to note here is the large arctic high over MS and AL, and the -10 Celsius degree temperature line down into the area!!! That is very cold air, as the freezing line is pushing all the way into the gulf. Now again this has several days to change, but if this were to happen it could be some of the coldest air this season. Certainly will be something to watch.

Ok that does it for me today. I hope everybody has a great weekend. I'll try to jump on for another update tomorrow or Sunday as Matt will be driving back from Disney on Sunday.


Thursday . . .

>> Thursday, February 03, 2011

Sorry for the late post today everybody. Been dealing with some rare wintry weather in the deep south here. Right now we have a freezing rain advisory for our parishes north of Lake Pontchartrain with winter storm warnings just out of the viewing area to the west. Crazy stuff. Always a borderline situation in the deep south as you know for winter weather. That freezing line has been bouncing around a little bit this morning. New Orleans metro will see all rain but we could see a little freezing rain north, and then of course bigger ice problems both farther north and farther west through tomorrow morning. Here is the latest winter radar . . .

You can see quite a bit of frozen precip. Of course all of this associated with a huge upper level system currently diving into the western part of Texas right now. As it does so it will develop either a surface low in the gulf or an inverted sfc trough. This feature will continue to lift north into southern Georgia and eventually north of there over the next couple of days. Look for moisture to spread into most of western North Carolina by tonight and then through much of your Friday.

Now most of this activity will fall as rain. However at the beginning of the event tonight into early tomorrow morning we could see a wintry mix, especially in some of the higher elevations and colder spots. While no major accumulations should occur, be careful tonight for some slick spots if you are traveling around, especially on elevated surfaces. Otherwise mostly rain for your Friday before things clear out the rest of the weekend.

Sorry this was a bit less in-depth that usual. Hope everybody has a great day!


Groundhog Day, Signing Day, Wednesday . . .

>> Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Sorry for the delay of the post here. I've been too busy following National Signing Day for college football. Hoping my beloved MSU Bulldogs can continue their trend of improvement the past couple of years.

Of course today is Groundhog Day as well. Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow today which means an early spring, I'm sure to the delight of most of the country. Keep in mind half the time I don't even know how they tell because he's out before that much sun even comes up. Frankly today it looked fairly clear up there so I figured he would see his shadow. Last year I thought it was cloudy and he didn't. But I digress. Here's a quick photo of the preceedings . . .

Ridiculous I know. But anyway . . . let's talk about the weather. As soon as this storm system has moved out another one is ready to move in over the next couple of days. Another in a train of gulf lows will be developing by Thursday south of Louisiana and then marching northeast. This will bring rain through much of North Carolina by the time we head into Friday morning. Keep in mind I did say rain here. While a wintry mix is possible in some spots Friday morning and again later Friday night, most of the event here should be rain across the area. The surface low once again moves farther to the north as opposed to along the coast like the last few, meaning warmer air is brought into the system.

However there could still be a few trouble spots during the morning and nighttime hours with this storm system so keep it to your local stations for the exact details each day. Looks pretty soggy for Friday and most of Saturday too before the rain moves out just in time for a dry Super Bowl Sunday.

In the meantime enjoy a dry and fairly sunny day for your Thursday with highs in the low 40s. Also keep an eye on the lower MS valley and Texas the next couple of days. While most of my area in NOLA here should get rain . . . you may actually have accumulating snow for the third year in a row around Houston, and a potential icy mess a little farther east into central LA and southwest MS. Hope everybody has a great day!


Tuesday Morning . . .

>> Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Wow what a storm system out there this morning. By now you've probably seen some of the national reporters in places like Oklahoma City, or Dallas, or maybe into St Louis and Chicago. This is one of the biggest storms to hit the central US in quite some time. Tons of snow and unfortunately a lot of ice as well. Of course on the southern end of things you have some strong storms and heavy rain, and a pretty nasty squall line moving through east Texas at the moment heading over towards me here in New Orleans. Look at this radar image from around 8:15 central time this morning . . .

Just a beast. The surface low we talked about yesterday is actually a little farther south, now in extreme northeast Texas as opposed to northwestern Arkansas. This means a little better chance for severe weather in the gulf south, and much of the southern part of that squall line has a severe thunderstorm warning associated with it.

Of course all this activity is heading east over the next couple of days, and quickly. Look for rain across much of North Carolina by later this afternoon and into tonight. Most of that should be clearing out through the morning tomorrow. This system will also bring some blustery conditions. As a matter of fact a wind advisory is in effect for the extreme western part of the state, basically Asheville westward. Look out for winds gusting into the 30s by tonight and tomorrow.

After that . . . our attention will turn to the end of the week. Another smaller storm will bring moisture into the area by later Thursday through Saturday morning. At this point most of the activity looks like rain. However some wintry precip will be possible on Saturday morning as colder air moves in, and Friday night in some of the colder spots.

Hope everybody has a great day! If anything big happens I'll be back with an update. Getting ready for this squall line here over the next few hours in the NOLA (New Orleans).


Monday Morning 1-31

>> Monday, January 31, 2011

Hey everybody, my first attempt at the blog post here so let's see how it goes. It's an honor to be asked by Matthew to keep up the blog while he's taking vacation so hopefully this goes ok. I'll let my buddy Andy handle most of the localized stuff for the Carolina area there since he's more familiar with how things work up there.

Ok let's talk about what we have to start off the week here. A huge storm system will be getting organized through today and tomorrow that will affect a good portion if not all of the country east of the Rockies over the next couple of days. Check out the warnings thumbnail that Matt has on the left side of the screen and you'll notice basically everybody northeast of Texas is under some sort of winter storm watch or warning.

The culprit for this? A big trough digging into the western half of the country as we speak. By later today and tonight a very strong area of low pressure will develop in Texas and lift northeast into the boot heel of Missouri by tomorrow evening. We are talking sub 1000 mb pressure with this low . . . which is not rare for a nor-easter but is not as common for the central US. Take a look at this . . .

I hope that worked right if not I'll try it again. That's a look at the GFS model for tomorrow evening. You can see the massive low in southeastern Missouri. Lots of cold air pouring in behind it with a lot of warm moist air out ahead of it.

What does it all mean? Well, a big time snow storm basically anywhere north and west of that low. Several places in the midwest could see 5-10 inches. South of that low is where you have the cold front. It will produce heavy rain from the gulf coast up towards the mid atlantic, and potentially some severe weather along the front tomorrow as well.

Note that this system is much farther north and west than the previous few that have brought snow to the Carolinas and much of the south. So this looks like a rain maker for everyone in the region. We'll keep an eye on this for the next couple of days.

Hope this worked ok for everybody. Will love to see any thoughts you may have or any questions about this storm. Have a great day!



>> Sunday, January 30, 2011

What a terrific day around the region yesterday! I love cold and winter weather as much as anybody, but it sure was nice to get to enjoy that type of day. And today will really still be very nice as well. Some clouds will creep in with time, but most Piedmont highs should still be in the low to mid 60s.

The forecast for this week is still a pretty complex one. A huge storm system will impact a large portion of the in our region, the biggest impacts look to be Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A big arctic high will spill into the Plains this week and try to gradually bleed southward. This could wind up being a big snowstorm from the TX Panhandle through parts of OK, KS, MO, IA, IL, IN, WI, OH, MI, and into parts of the New England states. Somewhere just south of the snow area, some significant icing could still occur.

Around the Carolinas, this looks like a rain event...maybe even a few thunderstorms, but instability will be non-existent or extremely lacking.

Later in the week, another wave of energy could move along the front, which will be south of most of the region at that point. Need to keep an eye on that to see how it behaves.

I will be off this upcoming week. However, a couple of very talented meteorologists are going to be kind enough to keep some fresh content going here on the blog through the week.

First of all, Andy Wood is going to post some thoughts this week. Andy has been kind enough to post up some great content before...he always has some great stuff to say. Andy is a meteorologist at Fox Carolina in Greenville-Spartanburg.

Also, Hank Allen is going to post this week. Hank is the morning meteorologist at WGNO-TV, the ABC affiliate in New Orleans. I have mentioned him (and posted his thoughts) before here on the blog, especially back during the Gulf oil situation. Hank might even get inspired enough to do a video this week.

Both of these guys are good friends of mine, and both are skilled meteorologists. Both have spent some time in other parts of the country before settling in the past several years at their current locations.

I really, really appreciate both of them being willing to provide some great content while I am off. I am sure you will enjoy reading their thoughts this week.


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