Saturday morning....

>> Saturday, March 02, 2013

The overnight model runs continue to indicate the potential of a significant mid-week storm system. In fact, it would seem the Euro, Canadian, UKMET, and GFS all wind up printing out snow in a good chunk of NC and definitely much of Virginia.

To me, this is definitely an odd setup. On many models, the surface low tracks right over NC. At first glance, you would typically discard the opportunity for much in the way of accumulating snow when you are dealing with snow on the backside of a departing low (cold chasing moisture).

However, this system is getting it done on the modeling due to very intense (and in some cases, extreme) dynamics as the low pressure rapidly strengthens near the coast. On the European model, it would turn into a downright blizzard in parts of NC into Virginia.

The European model takes a further north track than some other models as the upper low moves through the Plains and Ohio Valley, but then the system dives and just bombs out and essentially stalls near the NC coast.

Interesting for sure.

Snow fans..... please, manage your expectations. Dynamics and the exact track of the system are the big keys with this one. If the track adjusts further north, that would put much of NC out of the game. If the system is weaker with less dynamics involved, you could see rain with little to no snow on the backside.

I am getting an idea as to the areas that have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow with this system, but I want to see a few more model cycles before throwing anything more specific out there.

The upper air disturbance of note will enter the North America obs network by we could see model adjustments from then on for sure.

One other note....still looks like some snow showers will continue to be a possibility for a while today. Check out the radar at 7:30am:


Chilly March weekend.... watching next week...

>> Friday, March 01, 2013

Here's today's video:

We are set up for some chilly conditions as this first weekend of March unfolds. Look for highs to be well below averages for this time of year.

Snow will continue at times in the mountains, and a few rain drops or snow flakes could make it into the piedmont at times through Saturday. However, I just don't see any precip of significance.

Next week...

The day runs of the modeling yesterday were fun for a lot of snow fans in the region. However, the overnight modeling was unkind to most Carolina snow fans.

I delve into a lot of specifics in today's video.

Bottom line is this.... there will be a system Tuesday-Wednesday next week. The types and amounts of precipitation will depend on the timing, track, and intensity of the system.

Somebody should get some good snows out of this....but it might be the mid-Atlantic and Northeast as opposed to the Carolinas. It's just too soon to know.


Cooling down....

>> Thursday, February 28, 2013

No big changes in my thinking for now through the beginning of next week. The weekend still looks pretty cold, and there could be some snow showers in some spots this weekend, mainly later Saturday and Saturday night. However, east of the mountains, this does not look significant.

Speaking of the mountains, the snowy period will continue with waves of upslope snows over the next few days. The favored west and northwest facing slopes will do the best.

Next week...

Interesting goings-on in the modeling Tuesday into Wednesday. I take a detailed look at the 0z GFS and European in today's video. They both arrive at a solution that brings a low pressure area across the Carolinas that at least ends in some NC snow. However, it is one, compact upper air low on the GFS, whereas two pieces of energy phase on the European. Again, see the video for more.

Snow fans....please don't get your hopes up at this point. We are dealing with a delicate balance of lots of individual pieces of upper level energy..... 6 days out. Lots will probably change.

For instance, as I type the 6z GFS is coming in. It weakens the upper air low next week much more than the previous run, and the result is a weaker, suppressed system.

Expect lots of model variability ahead....


Milder and drier...

>> Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Drier, milder temps with us today.... highs will warm well into the 50s in the Piedmont.

We will step down toward a good period of colder temps this weekend into next week. The upcoming period will feature lots of upslope snow at times in the mountains. In the Piedmont, look for a good deal of highs in the 40s for the weekend into early next week.

In terms of precip east of the mountains, two opportunities.... one this weekend, and another late Tuesday into Wednesday. See the video for more on this:


Event underway...

>> Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Significant icing is underway in the mountains this morning, and temps are close to freezing in some foothills and northwest and western Piedmont locations. In those Piedmont spots, some brief, minor icing on some elevated surfaces is possible.

As you head west, much more significant accumulations of ice will occur in the higher elevations where temps remain below freezing the longest.

I am watching the going-on for the weekend and next week as well. Please see today's video for more...


Big system moving in...

>> Monday, February 25, 2013

We will be quiet today, but most spots will be a good bit cooler than the fabulous weather we had for our Sunday.

A big-time storm system is continuing to crank in the Plains states. This will provide blizzard conditions to some locations in the Plains as well as a severe weather threat today along the Gulf coast.

For the Carolinas, precip will arrive tonight. In the Piedmont of NC, initially there could be a few sleet pellets mixed with the rain as evaporation takes place, but overall, this will be a soaking rain event. I think many spots could top 1" of rain.

The severe weather potential will have to be watched in the eastern Carolinas as well.

A pronounced cold air damming setup will await this system. I am concerned about the potential for significant freezing rain accumulations in some mountains areas late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Some modeling is more aggressive with the CAD and ice potential than others.... i.e. the Canadian, NAM, and RPM. If those models are correct, this is a big mountain ice storm.

I also think we need to very closely watch temps in the northern foothills tomorrow morning as well.

Please see the video for much more on this as well as the incoming cold pattern, which might produce a system or two.


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