Fantastic weekend weather....big changes around Thanksgiving

>> Friday, November 19, 2010

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...

We are back to full sunshine around our region today, and that will remain the case all weekend. Highs today around the Piedmont are in the mid to upper 50s to near 60. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will warm well up into the 60s.

Thanksgiving week...

The first few days of Thanksgiving week will be quite mild....upper 60s Monday for highs with some lower 70s possible Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday. However, that mild weather will then sharply change.

An arctic cold front will gradually settle closer to and eventually through the region later Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers are possible Wednesday, but it still looks like the best shower chances will be on Thanksgiving itself.

Much colder air will plunge in here by Black Friday....we might see some Piedmont highs shy of 50 Friday. The cold air only gets reinforced as we then go through Saturday and Sunday with highs and lows well below average.

How long will the cold last?

Good question. As of now, I think we will stay primarily below average for temps into early December, but there will be some modification at times.


The GFS continues to pop up random snowstorms out there in fantasy land near the end of the cycle. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that somebody in our region will see some wintry precip during this upcoming colder pattern, however, I don't see anything specific for snow fans to get excited about as of now.


Some clouds today....sun back tomorrow...

>> Thursday, November 18, 2010

A storm system is pulling into the region today. However, it is rapidly weakening, and the precip associated with the system continues to dwindle with time. A few showers are possible up in the mountains today, and a few sprinkles might make it into the northern foothills, but that will be about it. Most folks will only see some clouds today. Highs will be close to average for the time of year...upper 50s to near 60.

Another chilly night is ahead with lows back down into the 30s tonight, then full sunshine returns tomorrow through the weekend. Highs tomorrow will likely be in the upper 50s with highs back into the 60s through the weekend.

Thanksgiving week...

Mild weather will be with us Monday and Tuesday to start the Thanksgiving week with highs in the 60s to even lower 70s at times, especially Tuesday. However, big changes are on tap later in the week.

A cold front will drop in here around Wednesday and begin to bring the chance of some showers. This will be a rather slow frontal passage, so it looks like the chance of at least some rain will extend into Thanksgiving itself.

Behind that front, arctic air will engulf the eastern US. This is the blast of cold air that I have been discussing in this space for quite a while now. It looks like Black Friday and the rest of the following weekend will be quite chilly. How cold? Still working on that, but at least several days of below average high and low temps....and the cold will likely be with us right on into early December.

Snow fans keep wondering about the possibility of winter weather. Nothing overly exciting as of yet. However, as we make the switch to the colder pattern, there are signs of the storm track being at least somewhat active. We will see....


Sunshine returns!

>> Wednesday, November 17, 2010

It was a fairly rough and tumble evening across the region with showers and some severe storms. A number of wind damage reports came in all the way from South Carolina up into southern New England.

However, today we are on the back side of that departing low pressure area, and that means dry air has returned to the area. We will see sunshine all day with highs in the low to mid 60s. It will also be fairly breezy today on the back side of that low.

Our next system will swing in tomorrow, but it will be in a weakening state, and moisture will be very limited, so I don't expect any rain. However, we will have some clouds move through as our Thursday unfolds.

Another great weekend!

What else is new.....another great weekend forecast! Highs will be in the 60s with full sunshine this weekend. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s to near 40.

Thanksgiving week...

It will be a warm start to our Thanksgiving week with lots of sunshine Monday and Tuesday and highs warming into the upper 60s by Tuesday....even some lower 70s are quite possible.

However, a cold front will likely drop in here by Wednesday or Thursday, bringing some rain chances. Very cold air is waiting in the wings behind that front, and I will continue to say the window of opportunity opens for that cold air to drop in here as we go deeper into the Thanksgiving weekend.


Showers, a few storms possible

>> Tuesday, November 16, 2010

An area of low pressure will lift from Mississippi this morning to Ohio this evening. We will be on the warm side of the system, so our region will continue to have showers roll through from time to time today.

A few storms are possible this afternoon into early evening, and enough dynamics are in place that a few storms could produce some wind damage or a brief tornado. The only ingredient lacking is instability, so this is something we will watch through the day.

We return to dry, quiet weather tomorrow with sunshine and highs in the 60s. Another weak system will swing through Thursday, but it will not have enough moisture to work with to produce significant rain chances.


Another great weather weekend is on tap. Look for sunshine and highs in the 60 both days...lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Thanksgiving week...

Thanksgiving week will begin with some warm afternoon temps...probably some lower 70s for highs on a couple of days. However, very cold air has taken up residence in Canada, and that cold air will bleed into the northern US in time.

At some point, the pattern will likely buckle and send that cold air into our region. The window of possibility for that to occur will likely open right around Thanksgiving.


Rain spreads in...

>> Monday, November 15, 2010

Our next system is organizing in Louisiana this morning, and that low will gradually lift northeast. By later tomorrow, the low will be tracking from eastern Tennessee into West Virginia, meaning we will be on the "warm" side of the system.

For our Monday, rain will spread in with time today, and high temps are a challenge to forecast. I will generally say low to mid 60s for the Piedmont, but it is tricky.

Look for periods of rain tonight through tomorrow. As the wind fields aloft strengthen tomorrow, a few storms could become involved. Although the chance is fairly limited, a few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will only settle to near 50 with highs tomorrow highly dependent on rain coverage....60s generally speaking.

Later this week...

The system will be gone by Wednesday with lots of sun and highs up toward the upper 60s. A push of chillier air will briefly arrive for Friday into Saturday with some spots in the 50s for highs Friday. But, a substantial warm-up looks likely by Sunday and Monday....maybe some spots hitting lower 70s again by next Monday.

Cold air?...

Plenty of very cold air will invade Canada and the northern US later this week. Through the first half of Thanksgiving week next week, the upper air pattern will keep that colder air bottled up to our north, and it looks fairly warm around our region. However, in time, the pattern should buckle over the eastern US, allowing the colder air to make it in here. The timing is still a question mark, but later Thanksgiving weekend is a possibility.


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