So what's next?

>> Saturday, January 26, 2013

After an icy start to our weekend, we will see some warmer temps work our way with time. In fact, by Monday, temps will be in the 50s for many and then some spots might even hit 70 Tuesday.

The 0z Friday run of the European model wound up bringing a big winter storm to the Southeast at the end of next week. The reason? It left a piece of the trough behind in the Southwest US as a closed upper low early in the week that then slowly worked eastward as the week unfolded.

The last 2 runs of the Euro, as well as almost all other model guidance, do not leave the energy behind and instead brings the whole trough through the eastern US in one piece, which would mean rain and even some thunderstorms mid-week followed by colder air, but no wintry precip.

However, the differences between the 0z Friday run of the Euro and today's run are extremely subtle early this other words, on the Euro, the difference in the cutoff solution and the non-cutoff solution are not great. Below is a chart from the 0z Saturday and the 0z Friday Euro....this is at the point the cutoff forms on the Friday run. Notice how similar overall they are.

 0z Sat run valid Monday evening:

0z Friday run valid Monday evening:

What's the point? Well, I would say odds overall don't favor the cutoff scenario. However, it is quite possible we do see that solution come back in future model runs. It does remind me a bit to the modeling behavior leading up to the system about 8 days ago.

One last nugget..... the NAM continues to cut the low off in the Southwest, like yesterday's Euro did. So, at least there's one model holdout.

6z NAM valid Tue afternoon:

Overall, I think February will present more winter weather chances in the region....I like the overall look of the pattern. The subtropical jet looks to become active, and there will still be some cold air around at times...


Wintry weather arrives today...

>> Friday, January 25, 2013

Some wintry weather will spread into the region today.... today's video is all about it. Please give it a look.....

Here are some general NC accumulation ideas...


Afternoon thoughts....

>> Thursday, January 24, 2013

Not a lot of change here. Just finished up the conference call with the Raleigh NWS, and their overall ideas are similar to mine. They will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most of their counties, valid tomorrow afternoon and evening, with their afternoon forecast package.

Specifically for the Triad, they are calling for a brief period of snow, then a change to sleet and freezing rain.

Some of my thoughts...

The modeling continues to be fairly underwhelming with precip amounts. However, the higher-resolution models are printing out generally 0.1" to 0.2" of precip, which if that's correct, would be enough to cause some travel issues due to cold ground conditions and sub-freezing air temps for many.

So, no real changes from me. This is not a huge, crippling winter storm. However, enough wintry precip could fall to cause some travel issues in some areas by later tomorrow.

The degree to which any travel problems develop will depends on the exact type and mixture of precip types. In spots that wind up with a sleet and freezing rain mix, that is where conditions will be the worst.


Fresh surge of arctic air today....wintry weather chances tomorrow....

Here is today's video... discussion below the video....

Blustery north winds will be with us at times today as a fresh surge of cold, dry arctic air arrives. Temperatures will not move much through the day, and wind chills will be biting.

Wintry weather tomorrow...

I don't have much in the way of changes to my thinking on tomorrow's system. The airmass we will have in place will be very dry, and that dry air will chew up a lot of the precipitation from this system.

However, this could be your classic event where the impacts on travel are far greater than you might expect with light precipitation amounts due to cold ground conditions.

This will be a tricky system in terms of precip types. Not only will the precip amounts be light, but there will be a warm nose of temperatures aloft (750-850mb). Due to that warm nose, and then the very cold air below it, I think many locations will see sleet.

Some specifics...please make sure you pay attention to the bottom end of these ranges below... I think the lower end is more likely to verify.

For the Virginia border areas roughly north of I-40.... I am thinking mainly snow...maybe in the 1" to at most 3" range.

I-40 down to roughly Hwy 64.... a snow and sleet mixture.... a dusting to maybe 1-2" of snow/ sleet.

Southern piedmont into the Upstate and north Georgia....sleet/ freezing rain mix with a glazing of 0.10" or so possible...more in the SW NC mountains into NE GA.

Any area is fair game to see the precip end as a little bit of light freezing rain or drizzle as moisture leaves the snow growth region aloft.

Let me make sure this point makes it across..... the airmass is very, very dry. If this forecast busts, it will bust on the low side due to very little if any precipitation.

This is not a big winter storm.... there just isn't enough precipitation. However, due to the very cold ground, some travel issues will probably develop by tomorrow afternoon and evening in some areas.


Arctic air remains... watching Friday...

>> Wednesday, January 23, 2013

I encourage you to watch today's edition of the video... I have lots of graphics to go along with the discussion for our Friday system...

Brrr.... cold, dry arctic air remains in place across the region. A little clipper will move through tonight and re-enforce the cold air around here for tomorrow. As the clipper moves through, some flurries are possible later tonight into early Thursday morning.


Another, stronger system will move in Friday. This time around, the big question is precipitation amounts, or lack thereof.

The GFS is very dry with very little in the way of appreciable precip east of the mountains.

The NAM remains wetter, as does the Euro and Canadian.

If we can generate enough precip, then this would likely be a wintry mix for northeast Georgia up into the Upstate, northern SC, and into southern NC with mainly snow for the mountains and northern NC.

Looking at BUFKIT data from the 6z NAM, for Charlotte, it is a period of sleet and freezing rain. For Greensboro, it was all snow.

But....but... the big question is will there be enough precip to be anything of significance? Too soon to know. This airmass is bone dry, but with cold ground conditions and cold air temperatures, it would only take a small amount of precip to cause some significant travel issues.

We will see.


Watching the end of the week....

>> Tuesday, January 22, 2013

I will be back on the regular video production schedule tomorrow morning.... but wanted to put up a real quick discussion this morning.

Lots of cold air this you are be keenly aware if you step outside at any point. Tonight will probably be the coldest night with the colder spots in the teens. Of course, the mountains will be even colder.

Our next storm system will move through between Thursday night and Friday night. When you first glance at the charts, you are fairly unimpressed with what you see, in terms of wintry weather chances.

However, as you dig deeper, you see that the depth of the cold air in place prior to the system could be enough to cause some wintry weather.

The overall precip amounts look pretty light, so this does not look like a huge event. However, if the precip falls in the form of freezing rain, it doesn't take much to cause some problems for travel.

At face value (prior to the 12z guidance), it looks like a quick hit of snow to maybe freezing rain or rain, depending on surface temps, for portions of especially North Carolina.

We will see how this trends we we move forward.


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